Robert Dugger
P
Round Rock Express
+0.0
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
AAA
ERA5.68
FIP5.68
xFIP3.90
SIERA3.62
K%19.3%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%6.4%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4040
FB Velo
p1089.6
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p7326.4%
xwOBA vs
p200.347
SL-1.0
CH-3.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 6 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.84 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 31 | 18 | 118 | 483 | 116 | 31 | 8 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 2.75 | 3.82 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 25 | 25 | 151 | 623 | 141 | 42 | 15 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 3.40 | 4.11 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 30 | 30 | 158 | 694 | 147 | 54 | 24 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.29 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 11 | 56 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7.1% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 12.66 | 8.62 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 27 | 18 | 95 | 421 | 83 | 36 | 16 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 6.44 | 5.03 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 23 | 13 | 82 | 355 | 71 | 40 | 10 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 29 | 29 | 146 | 632 | 143 | 60 | 18 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 20 | 16 | 94 | 417 | 87 | 56 | 16 | 18.4% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 4.79 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 10 | 4 | 25 | 136 | 21 | 24 | 9 | 13.6% | 18.5% | 8.1% | 14.40 | 8.75 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 17.3% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 5.85 | 5.86 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 32 | 23 | 7 | 17.3% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 5.77 | 5.82 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 30 | 22 | 7 | 17.1% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 5.76 | 5.83 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 16.7% | 12.6% | 4.1% | 5.81 | 5.90 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 26 | 20 | 7 | 16.1% | 12.7% | 4.2% | 5.91 | 6.01 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 23 | 19 | 6 | 15.4% | 13.0% | 4.3% | 6.07 | 6.17 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 205 | 154 | 893 | 3868 | 705 | 369 | 136 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.70 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 867 | 158 | 83 | 30 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robert Dugger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.86 | 17.3% | 12.8% | 4.0% | — | 5.85 | 17.0% | 4.5% | 126 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.33 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 200 | 80 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 77 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.70 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 215 | 74 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.48 | 13.0% | 13.4% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 150 | 74 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.52 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.5% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 117 | 73 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.49 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 254 | 72 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 72 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 72 |
| Mat Latos R 2024 · 5.69 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.69 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.7% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 244 | 72 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2024 · 5.74 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.74 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 290 | 70 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.96 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 203 | 70 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.13 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .278 | 5.98 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +0.85 | 5.13 | 194 | 70 |
| Chris Heston R 2024 · 5.90 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.90 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 321 | 70 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 70 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.90 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 2.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 254 | 69 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 6.70 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.70 | 13.9% | 15.8% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 180 | 69 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2025 · 6.33 FIP | 30 | SU | 6.33 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 6.1% | .330 | 3.79 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 33 | -2.54 | 2.59 | 301 | 68 |
| Luis Mateo R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.45 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 160 | 67 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2027 · 7.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 7.24 | 18.8% | 13.5% | 7.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 263 | 65 |
| Seth Simmons R 2025 · 6.19 FIP | 30 | SW | 6.19 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 251 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.