Alek Manoah
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 285 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.00
FIP5.24
K%20.0%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p6928.2%
K%
p6625.2%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
FB+1.8 (55%)
SI (27%)
CH-0.7 (14%)
SL-1.6 (30%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 525 | 154 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.7% | 8.2% | 20.5% | 2.5% | 2.85 | 3.07 | +3.5 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 525 | 154 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 29.3% | 8.2% | 21.1% | 2.5% | 2.85 | 3.02 | +3.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 31 | 197 | 786 | 180 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 2.0% | 2.24 | 3.11 | +5.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 31 | 197 | 786 | 180 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 2.0% | 2.24 | 3.11 | +5.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 95 | 455 | 92 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.0% | 14.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 6.54 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 95 | 455 | 92 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 6.54 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 44 | 200 | 54 | 19 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 26.6% | 8.3% | 18.2% | 5.2% | 5.93 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 44 | 200 | 54 | 19 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 5.93 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 39 | 179 | 35 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 18.0% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 3.96 | 6.77 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 39 | 179 | 35 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 3.96 | 5.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 12 | 9 | 36 | 206 | 29 | 42 | 10 | 75% | 3.0 | 13.4% | 23.2% | -9.8% | 6.1% | 13.75 | 8.24 | -1.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 5.00 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 5.00 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 101 | 480 | 84 | 76 | 21 | — | — | 17.4% | 15.8% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 8.12 | 6.31 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 72 | 305 | 84 | 76 | 21 | — | — | 27.5% | 24.9% | 2.5% | 7.0% | 11.35 | 7.77 | -2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 112 | 471 | 92 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 5.48 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 17 | 17 | 105 | 442 | 83 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.70 | 5.85 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 98 | 413 | 74 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.93 | 6.08 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 92 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 5.48 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 83 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.70 | 5.85 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 75 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.93 | 6.08 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 147 | 144 | 806 | 3401 | 721 | 370 | 116 | 98% | 5.5 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 92 | 29 | 98% | 5.5 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 107 | 104 | 540 | 2351 | 530 | 245 | 80 | 97% | 5.0 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 871 | 196 | 91 | 30 | 97% | 5.0 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alek Manoah (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.34 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 4.0% | — | 5.85 | 18.8% | 5.9% | 314 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.54 | 14.1% | -1.8% | 25 | +0.56 | 4.39 | 353 | 78 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 78 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 77 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.66 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 4.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 299 | 77 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.05 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | .285 | 4.43 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 438 | -0.62 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 76 |
| Nate Long R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 75 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.42 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 4.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 509 | 73 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Miguel González R 2029 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 71 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 71 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 278 | 71 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 70 |
| Matt Garza R 2029 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 70 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 17.6% | 9.1% | 3.6% | .271 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.00 | 4.76 | 247 | 70 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 69 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.43 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | -0.24 | 3.90 | 810 | 69 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2029 · 4.34 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.34 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .307 | 4.41 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.07 | 4.23 | 325 | 69 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 68 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.76 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 289 | 68 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 108 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 1.61 | 5.53 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |