Alek Manoah — OGILVIE

Alek Manoah P Salt Lake Bees

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 285 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.84

FIP5.02

K%19.3%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

FB+1.8 (55%)

SI (27%)

CH-0.7 (14%)

SL-1.6 (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	130	525	154	43	13	100%	5.6	28.7%	8.2%	20.5%	2.5%	2.85	3.08	+3.0
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	130	525	154	43	13	100%	5.6	29.3%	8.2%	21.1%	2.5%	2.85	3.02	+3.1
2022	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	197	786	180	51	16	100%	6.3	22.9%	6.5%	16.4%	2.0%	2.24	3.11	+4.4
2022	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	197	786	180	51	16	100%	6.3	22.9%	6.5%	16.4%	2.0%	2.24	3.11	+4.4
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	455	92	63	17	100%	4.5	19.0%	14.0%	5.1%	3.6%	6.54	5.25	-0.4
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	455	92	63	17	100%	4.5	19.0%	14.0%	5.1%	3.6%	6.54	5.25	-0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	95	455	92	63	17	100%	4.5	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	3.7%	6.54	5.48	-0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	44	200	54	19	10	100%	4.4	25.9%	7.8%	18.1%	5.1%	5.93	4.72	+0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	44	200	54	19	10	100%	4.4	25.9%	7.8%	18.1%	5.1%	5.93	4.72	+0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	10	44	200	54	19	10	100%	4.4	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	5.0%	5.93	4.90	+0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	39	179	35	23	6	100%	3.9	16.9%	11.0%	5.9%	5.3%	3.96	5.98	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	39	179	35	23	6	100%	3.9	16.9%	11.0%	5.9%	5.3%	3.96	5.98	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	39	179	35	23	6	100%	3.9	19.6%	12.8%	6.7%	3.4%	3.96	5.09	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			78	75	427	1802	417	165	49	96%	5.5	23.1%	9.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.45	3.80	+5.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	14	11	42	243	33	52	13	79%	3.0	11.9%	20.8%	-8.9%	6.6%	14.46	8.38	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	14	11	42	243	33	52	13	79%	3.0	11.9%	20.8%	-8.9%	6.6%	14.46	8.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	LAA	1	1	4	22	2	2	1	100%	4.3	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	4.5%	10.38	5.98	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	LAA	10	10	31	182	26	42	11	100%	3.1	14.3%	23.1%	-8.8%	6.0%	16.14	8.13	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	LAA	3	0	7	39	5	8	1	0%	2.4	12.8%	20.5%	-7.7%	2.6%	9.82	6.02	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	LAA	3	0	7	39	5	8	1	0%	2.4	12.8%	20.5%	-7.7%	2.6%	9.82	6.02	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	11	45	9	5	2	100%	5.3	19.3%	11.5%	7.9%	3.8%	4.84	5.02	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	11	46	9	5	2	100%	5.5	19.3%	11.5%	7.9%	3.8%	4.84	5.02	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	53	288	42	57	15	—	—	14.5%	19.9%	-5.4%	5.1%	12.53	7.71	-1.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	18	76	42	57	15	—	—	55.0%	75.5%	-20.4%	19.4%	36.99	18.68	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	112	471	90	56	18	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.9%	7.2%	3.8%	5.35	5.48	-0.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	105	442	81	54	18	100%	6.2	18.3%	12.2%	6.2%	4.0%	5.55	5.69	-0.9
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	112	473	90	56	18	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.9%	7.2%	3.8%	5.35	5.48	-0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	105	443	81	54	18	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.2%	6.2%	4.0%	5.55	5.69	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	114	654	2760	596	280	87	97%	5.6	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.14	4.28	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	844	182	86	27	97%	5.6	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.14	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		109	106	546	2388	528	243	81	97%	5.0	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.4%	4.50	4.39	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	874	193	89	30	97%	5.0	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.4%	4.50	4.39	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alek Manoah (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	20.5%	10.7%	3.8%	—	5.58	18.7%	6.7%	216	+0.41	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,146	81
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	77
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	77
Hiram Burgos R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	28	SP	4.08	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.94	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.86	3.40	355	76
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	76
Daniel Corcino R 2019 · 5.83 FIP	28	SP	5.83	17.5%	12.2%	4.9%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	299	75
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	75
Matt Harvey R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	28	SP	5.76	15.5%	10.2%	4.9%	.298	4.71	19.0%	12.0%	249	-1.05	2.90	806	74
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	74
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	74
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	73
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	73
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	469	73
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	72
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Matt Garza R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	31	SP	4.61	15.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.315	4.30	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.31	4.00	365	71
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	71
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	71
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	71
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	247	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	111	19.3%	11.5%	1.50	5.29
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10