Matt Manning
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144134vR 125
ERA5.05
FIP5.55
K%19.1%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%6.9%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p3823.6%
K%
p2618.7%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
SL+2.1 (38%)
CU (10%)
FB-2.9 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 10 | 10 | 29 | 122 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 2.9 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 18.5% | 2.3% | 3.99 | 3.10 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 10 | 10 | 29 | 122 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 2.9 | 37.7% | 5.7% | 32.0% | 1.6% | 3.99 | 1.57 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 5 | 5 | 18 | 79 | 26 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 24.4% | 16.4% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 5.60 | 3.12 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 5 | 5 | 18 | 79 | 26 | 11 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 32.9% | 13.9% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 5.60 | 2.02 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 118 | 488 | 154 | 51 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.0% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 3.29 | 3.59 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 118 | 488 | 154 | 51 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 31.6% | 10.5% | 21.1% | 1.4% | 3.29 | 2.56 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 24 | 24 | 134 | 527 | 148 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 1.0% | 2.56 | 2.71 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 24 | 24 | 134 | 527 | 148 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.1% | 7.0% | 21.1% | 1.3% | 2.56 | 2.40 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 118 | 529 | 93 | 43 | 21 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 6.42 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 118 | 529 | 93 | 43 | 21 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 6.42 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 85 | 357 | 71 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.16 | 3.55 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 85 | 357 | 71 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.9% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 1.7% | 3.16 | 3.40 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 87 | 355 | 59 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.8% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 3.22 | 4.69 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 87 | 355 | 59 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 3.22 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 97 | 412 | 95 | 37 | 13 | 95% | 4.8 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 4.45 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 97 | 412 | 95 | 37 | 13 | 95% | 4.8 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.03 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 6 | 56 | 257 | 60 | 43 | 7 | 18% | 1.7 | 19.7% | 16.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.47 | 5.95 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 6 | 56 | 257 | 60 | 43 | 7 | 18% | 1.7 | 23.3% | 16.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 6.47 | 4.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 50 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 5.05 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 46 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 12.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 42 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.8% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.73 | 5.92 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.5% | 12.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.8% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.73 | 5.92 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 59 | 306 | 1308 | 218 | 113 | 39 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.43 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 854 | 142 | 74 | 25 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 176 | 148 | 741 | 3126 | 639 | 300 | 92 | 84% | 4.2 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.21 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 40 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 81 | 25 | 84% | 4.2 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Manning (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.55 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 3.9% | — | 5.81 | 18.1% | 5.6% | 115 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 75 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 73 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 71 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 71 |
| Colin Rea R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.72 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 4.9% | .344 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 198 | -1.62 | 2.67 | 1,073 | 70 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 70 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.31 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .274 | 6.16 | 12.5% | -2.7% | 64 | +0.85 | 3.85 | 780 | 70 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 70 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 69 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 69 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 69 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 68 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 67 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .279 | 5.79 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 41 | +0.85 | 3.68 | 244 | 67 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.54 | 14.1% | -1.8% | 25 | +0.56 | 4.39 | 353 | 66 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 66 |
| Darien Smith R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 66 |
| Brett Gillis R 2024 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.10 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 119 | 66 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 6.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.70 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 6.6% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 333 | 66 |
| Nick Tropeano R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.92 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 4.3% | .336 | 3.91 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 83 | -1.01 | 2.28 | 446 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 18.5% | 12.4% | 1.57 | 5.40 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |