Matt Manning — OGILVIE

Matt Manning P Toledo Mud Hens

+0.0 WAR

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 195 lbs AAA

ERA4.62

FIP5.07

xFIP5.21

SIERA5.04

K%20.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%9.3%

IP46

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

SL+2.1 (38%)

CU (10%)

FB-2.9 (48%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	GCL Tigers West	10	10	29	122	46	7	2	25.6%	7.2%	2.3%	3.99	3.10	+0.6
2017	19	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	5	5	18	79	26	11	0	24.4%	16.4%	0.0%	5.60	3.12	+0.4
2018	20	AA	Erie SeaWolves	22	22	118	488	154	51	7	24.0%	12.4%	1.9%	3.29	3.66	+2.2
2019	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	24	24	134	527	148	37	7	22.7%	7.7%	1.2%	2.56	2.83	+3.7
2021	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	25	25	118	529	93	43	21	16.8%	8.2%	4.1%	6.42	4.99	+0.4
2022	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	19	19	85	357	71	30	6	19.5%	8.4%	1.8%	3.16	3.52	+1.6
2023	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	18	18	87	355	59	29	11	15.8%	6.6%	3.7%	3.22	4.62	+0.6
2024	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	20	19	97	412	95	37	13	21.0%	9.3%	4.2%	4.45	4.79	+0.5
2025	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	33	6	56	257	60	43	7	19.7%	16.3%	3.7%	6.47	5.53	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	DET	46	—	46	195	38	23	7	19.6%	11.6%	3.5%	4.74	5.21	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	DET	45	—	45	191	37	22	7	19.1%	11.7%	3.5%	5.07	5.29	-0.2
2028	30	MLB	DET	44	—	44	185	34	22	7	18.6%	11.8%	3.6%	5.26	5.38	-0.2
2029	31	MLB	DET	42	—	42	179	32	21	7	18.0%	11.9%	3.7%	5.39	5.48	-0.3
2030	32	MLB	DET	41	—	41	172	30	21	6	17.3%	12.1%	3.7%	5.52	5.60	-0.3
2031	33	MLB	DET	39	—	39	164	27	20	6	16.7%	12.3%	3.8%	5.64	5.73	-0.3
2032	34	MLB	DET	37	—	37	156	25	19	6	16.0%	12.5%	3.9%	5.78	5.87	-0.4
2033	35	MLB	DET	35	—	35	147	22	19	6	15.2%	12.7%	4.0%	5.92	6.02	-0.4
2034	36	MLB	DET	33	—	33	138	20	18	6	14.5%	13.0%	4.2%	6.08	6.18	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			176	148	741	3126	639	300	86	20.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.11	4.10	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—			48	40	200	844	173	81	23	20.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.11	4.10	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Manning (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	19.6%	11.6%	3.5%	—	5.38	18.5%	6.7%	132	+0.17	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	20.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.275	6.70	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+1.88	3.88	180	81
Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP	27	SU	5.16	21.1%	13.8%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	153	81
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	81
Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	80
Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	80
Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	.309	5.45	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.87	3.47	160	79
Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	78
Guido Knudson R 2024 · 4.70 FIP	26	SU	4.70	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	78
Chris Jefferson R 2025 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	16.4%	13.6%	3.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	140	77
Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	17.9%	12.5%	3.1%	.450	3.38	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.47	3.01	115	77
Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.87	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.43	3.01	260	77
Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.39 FIP	27	SW	5.39	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	77
Fernery Ozuna R 2025 · 5.86 FIP	27	SU	5.86	19.5%	13.5%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	157	77
Tucker Healy R 2026 · 5.21 FIP	28	SU	5.21	19.2%	10.5%	4.4%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	174	76
Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP	28	SW	5.38	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	76
Steve Geltz R 2026 · 5.30 FIP	28	SW	5.30	22.0%	10.2%	5.1%	.248	3.57	22.6%	12.4%	27	-1.73	3.57	157	76
Alexi Ogando R 2029 · 5.21 FIP	31	SW	5.21	19.1%	9.4%	4.6%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.26	3.80	132	75

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.