Matt Manning — OGILVIE

Matt Manning P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.71

FIP5.09

K%19.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

SL+2.1 (38%)

CU (10%)

FB-2.9 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	10	10	29	122	46	7	2	100%	2.9	25.6%	7.2%	18.5%	2.3%	3.99	3.10	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	10	10	29	122	46	7	2	100%	2.9	37.7%	5.7%	32.0%	1.6%	3.99	1.57	—
2017	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	5	5	18	79	26	11	0	100%	3.5	24.4%	16.4%	7.9%	0.0%	5.60	3.12	—
2017	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	5	5	18	79	26	11	0	100%	3.5	32.9%	13.9%	19.0%	0.0%	5.60	2.02	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	118	488	154	51	7	100%	5.3	24.0%	12.4%	11.6%	1.8%	3.29	3.64	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	118	488	154	51	7	100%	5.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	1.4%	3.29	2.56	—
2019	21	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	24	24	134	527	148	37	7	100%	5.6	22.7%	7.7%	15.0%	1.2%	2.56	2.83	—
2019	21	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	24	24	134	527	148	37	7	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.0%	21.1%	1.3%	2.56	2.40	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	118	529	93	43	21	100%	4.7	16.8%	8.2%	8.5%	4.1%	6.42	5.00	-0.1
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	118	529	93	43	21	100%	4.7	17.6%	8.1%	9.5%	4.0%	6.42	4.94	-0.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	85	357	71	30	6	100%	4.5	19.5%	8.4%	11.1%	1.8%	3.16	3.50	+1.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	85	357	71	30	6	100%	4.5	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	1.7%	3.16	3.40	+1.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	355	59	29	11	100%	4.8	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	3.6%	3.22	4.60	+0.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	355	59	29	11	100%	4.8	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	3.6%	3.22	4.60	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	87	355	59	29	11	100%	4.8	16.6%	8.2%	8.5%	3.1%	3.22	4.39	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	412	95	37	13	95%	4.8	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	4.1%	4.45	4.73	+0.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	412	95	37	13	95%	4.8	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	4.1%	4.45	4.73	+0.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	97	412	95	37	13	95%	4.8	23.1%	9.0%	14.1%	3.2%	4.45	4.03	+1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	56	257	60	43	7	18%	1.7	18.6%	14.0%	4.6%	3.8%	6.47	5.39	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	6	56	257	60	43	7	18%	1.7	18.6%	14.0%	4.6%	3.8%	6.47	5.39	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	6	56	257	60	43	7	18%	1.7	23.3%	16.7%	6.6%	2.7%	6.47	4.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			50	50	254	1087	178	85	30	100%	5.1	16.4%	7.8%	8.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.24	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	DET	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.5%	4.71	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	71	300	56	32	11	100%	5.9	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.6%	5.04	5.25	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	67	282	51	31	11	100%	6.1	18.1%	11.0%	7.1%	3.9%	5.29	5.46	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	26	110	21	12	4	100%	6.5	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.6%	5.04	5.25	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	37	156	28	17	6	100%	6.2	18.1%	11.0%	7.1%	3.9%	5.29	5.46	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	317	1352	227	114	40	100%	5.3	16.8%	8.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.37	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	854	143	72	25	100%	5.2	16.8%	8.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		176	148	741	3126	633	291	86	84%	4.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.08	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	844	171	78	23	84%	4.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.08	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Manning (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	19.4%	10.5%	3.5%	—	5.35	18.4%	7.6%	138	+0.26	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	82
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	80
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	75
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	75
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	75
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	74
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	73
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	72
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	72
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	72
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	71
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	71
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	71
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	71
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	71
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	70
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	70
Mat Latos R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	28	SP-	4.93	13.4%	9.6%	3.2%	.279	5.66	16.8%	5.6%	41	+0.73	3.60	244	70
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.19	11.8%	-1.3%	64	+0.78	3.84	780	70
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	71	18.7%	10.7%	1.42	5.00
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21