Cole Ragans

P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.2 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBKC	32	32	186	3.14	2.82	29.3%	8.7%	4.9
2025	27	MIX3 levels	16	16	72	4.62	2.41	39.3%	7.7%	2.3	K 38.1% · BB 7.8% · FIP 2.48
2026	28	MIX2 levels	9	9	40	4.54	6.10	28.6%	14.3%	-0.5	K 29.8% · BB 15.2% · FIP 6.44
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	10	10	62	3.96	4.20	32.0%	10.6%	0.5
2028PROJ	30	MLBKC	16	16	96	4.07	4.24	31.3%	10.9%	0.6
2029PROJ	31	MLBKC	15	15	89	4.30	4.47	30.5%	11.3%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.169First FA2030

2027Ext$4M2028Arb-2$5M2029Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%90

K%90

FB Velo55

xwOBA vs23

CompsYusei Kikuchi (age 29) · Joey Lucchesi (age 28) · John Lamb (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA3.96

FIP4.20

K%32.0%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%21.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p9029.8%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

CT (6%)

CU (9%)

SL (13%)

CH-1.0 (16%)

FB-1.8 (56%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.169 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$4M	+0.5	$2M	-$2M
2028	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	2	8	38	9	6	0	50%	1.9	23.7%	15.8%	7.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.10	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	2	8	38	9	6	0	50%	1.9	23.7%	15.8%	7.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.10	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	81	339	87	34	12	89%	4.2	20.2%	11.2%	8.9%	4.2%	4.35	5.14	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	81	339	87	34	12	89%	4.2	25.7%	10.0%	15.6%	3.5%	4.35	4.14	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	135	560	140	47	16	100%	5.0	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	3.2%	3.61	4.15	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	135	560	140	47	16	100%	5.0	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	2.9%	3.61	3.61	+2.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	19	124	512	150	56	9	53%	3.5	28.3%	10.6%	17.7%	1.9%	3.62	3.12	+2.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	19	124	512	150	56	9	53%	3.5	29.3%	10.9%	18.4%	1.8%	3.62	2.98	+2.9
2024	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.1%	3.14	2.89	+4.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.1%	3.14	2.89	+4.7
2024	26	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	32	32	186	762	223	66	15	100%	5.8	29.3%	8.7%	20.6%	2.0%	3.14	2.82	+4.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	38.1%	7.8%	30.4%	2.9%	4.62	2.48	+2.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	38.1%	7.8%	30.4%	2.9%	4.62	2.48	+2.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	72	300	118	23	9	100%	4.5	39.3%	7.7%	31.7%	3.0%	4.62	2.41	+2.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	7.2%	4.54	6.44	-0.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	29.8%	15.2%	14.6%	7.2%	4.54	6.44	-0.7
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	40	168	48	24	11	100%	4.4	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	6.5%	4.54	6.10	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	74	419	1736	506	165	45	81%	4.6	29.1%	9.5%	19.6%	2.6%	3.76	3.26	+8.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	10	10	62	262	84	28	10	100%	6.2	32.0%	10.6%	21.3%	3.8%	3.96	4.20	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	96	404	126	44	16	100%	6.0	31.3%	10.9%	20.3%	4.0%	4.23	4.40	+0.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	89	377	115	43	16	100%	6.0	30.5%	11.3%	19.2%	4.2%	4.47	4.64	+0.3
2030	32	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	83	349	104	41	15	100%	5.9	29.7%	11.7%	18.0%	4.4%	4.72	4.89	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	96	405	127	44	15	100%	6.0	31.3%	10.9%	20.3%	3.7%	4.07	4.24	+0.6
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	89	376	115	42	15	100%	5.9	30.5%	11.3%	19.2%	3.9%	4.30	4.47	+0.3
2030	32	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	83	350	104	41	14	100%	5.9	29.7%	11.7%	18.0%	4.1%	4.54	4.71	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	119	687	2866	851	293	89	88%	5.1	29.7%	10.2%	19.5%	3.1%	3.96	3.59	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	834	248	85	26	87%	5.1	29.7%	10.2%	19.5%	3.1%	3.96	3.59	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		143	122	645	2679	731	263	79	85%	4.5	27.3%	9.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.75	3.66	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	830	227	81	25	85%	4.5	27.3%	9.8%	17.5%	3.0%	3.75	3.66	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Ragans (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	32.0%	10.6%	3.8%	—	4.63	30.5%	19.2%	268	+0.43	—	—	—
Yusei Kikuchi L 2020 · 3.23 FIP	29	SP	3.23	24.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.306	4.42	25.7%	16.5%	425	+1.19	3.23	1,056	54
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.64	16.4%	6.5%	243	+1.46	3.12	817	54
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	53
Andrew Heaney L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	29	SP	3.53	25.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.297	4.06	27.3%	19.4%	350	+0.53	3.19	1,226	52
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	46
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	45
Erik Bedard L 2008 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	20.7%	10.7%	2.6%	.266	3.61	24.2%	14.9%	212	-0.51	2.96	1,317	42
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	41
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	41
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	40
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	1,022	40
Tom Gorzelanny L 2011 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP-	3.94	21.3%	6.3%	3.4%	.282	3.69	22.2%	13.4%	178	-0.25	2.67	899	39
Nick Additon L 2017 · 3.13 FIP	29	SP	3.13	19.3%	9.1%	0.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	217	38
Zach Penrod L 2024 · 3.37 FIP	27	SP-	3.37	29.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.324	5.24	15.8%	-0.3%	79	+1.87	3.37	174	37
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	37
Brandon Claussen L 2006 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP	4.89	16.2%	7.7%	4.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	310	36
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	36
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	35
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	35
Wandy Rodriguez L 2008 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	22.3%	7.0%	2.4%	.304	3.61	21.7%	14.2%	592	+0.20	3.37	1,572	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	84	29.9%	10.3%	1.27	4.02
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Claude Jonnard ('21-'29, 3 WAR*)	1.7	70	28.6%*	9.1%*	1.29*	4.05*
Tom Hall ('68-'77, 7 WAR*)	4.3	95	30.7%*	10.2%*	1.35*	3.95*
Joe Page ('44-'54, 7 WAR*)	4.0	113	31.0%*	10.3%*	0.97*	4.02*
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90