Edward Cabrera

P Chicago Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 217 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	26	26	119	4.46	4.05	26.1%	12.1%	1.2	K 25.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.15
2025	27	MIX2 levels	28	28	145	3.48	3.50	26.2%	7.9%	2.5	K 25.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.66
2026	28	MIX3 levels	24	18	94	5.92	4.77	22.9%	10.1%	0.1	K 20.3% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	16	16	97	4.72	4.69	24.1%	9.6%	0.2
2028PROJ	30	MLBCHC	15	15	91	4.83	4.90	23.4%	9.9%	0.0
2029PROJ	31	MLBCHC	14	14	85	5.01	5.13	22.6%	10.3%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

Whiff%58

K%37

xwOBA vs16

CompsAlexi Ogando (age 29) · Ross Ohlendorf (age 29) · Mike Clevinger (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.72

FIP4.69

K%24.1%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP97

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p160.352

CH+2.3 (30%)

SL+1.3 (12%)

FB+0.9 (38%)

SI (21%)

CU (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	11	7	47	201	28	10	1	64%	4.3	9.5%	6.2%	3.3%	0.7%	4.21	3.47	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	11	7	47	201	28	10	1	64%	4.3	13.9%	5.0%	9.0%	0.5%	4.21	2.82	—
2018	20	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	22	100	440	93	42	11	100%	4.6	15.6%	11.3%	4.4%	2.9%	4.22	4.80	—
2018	20	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	22	100	440	93	42	11	100%	4.6	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.5%	4.22	3.93	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	97	383	116	31	7	100%	5.1	23.8%	9.1%	14.6%	2.5%	2.23	3.60	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	97	383	116	31	7	100%	5.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.2%	1.8%	2.23	2.60	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	20	88	369	120	44	13	100%	4.4	28.0%	13.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.80	4.76	+0.1
2021	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	20	88	369	120	44	13	100%	4.4	32.5%	11.9%	20.6%	3.5%	3.80	3.80	+1.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	23	110	442	129	49	12	100%	4.8	26.9%	11.2%	15.7%	3.1%	2.94	3.96	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	23	110	442	129	49	12	100%	4.8	29.2%	11.1%	18.1%	2.7%	2.94	3.51	+1.9
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	128	547	148	78	13	93%	4.7	26.3%	14.0%	12.2%	2.5%	3.80	4.03	+1.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	128	547	148	78	13	93%	4.7	27.1%	14.3%	12.8%	2.4%	3.80	3.94	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	25.3%	11.8%	13.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.15	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	25.3%	11.8%	13.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.15	+1.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.05	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	25.8%	8.3%	17.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.66	+2.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	25.8%	8.3%	17.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.66	+2.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	26.2%	7.9%	18.4%	3.0%	3.48	3.50	+2.5
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	18	94	407	93	41	17	75%	3.9	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	4.7%	5.92	5.30	-0.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	18	94	407	93	41	17	75%	3.9	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	4.7%	5.92	5.30	-0.4
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	18	94	407	93	41	17	75%	3.9	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	4.2%	5.92	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			107	102	512	2194	549	252	75	95%	4.8	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.36	4.34	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	16	16	97	410	99	39	15	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.7%	4.72	4.69	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	91	385	90	38	15	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.90	0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	85	359	81	37	15	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.4%	4.1%	5.01	5.13	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	91	384	90	38	15	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.90	0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	85	359	81	37	15	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.4%	4.1%	5.01	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	131	688	2938	720	327	105	96%	5.1	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	3.6%	4.50	4.40	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	38	200	854	209	95	31	96%	5.0	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	3.6%	4.50	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		200	188	928	3913	915	425	121	94%	4.6	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	3.85	4.20	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	843	197	92	26	94%	4.6	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	3.85	4.20	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edward Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	24.1%	9.6%	3.7%	—	5.01	23.0%	12.9%	176	+0.32	—	—	—
Alexi Ogando R 2013 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	16.8%	9.3%	2.5%	.249	4.43	19.0%	8.4%	122	+0.21	2.83	538	62
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	62
Mike Clevinger R 2020 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	24.7%	8.6%	3.6%	.275	4.24	19.4%	12.2%	246	+0.15	2.28	1,236	60
John Maine R 2010 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	20.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	582	59
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	59
Claudio Vargas R 2007 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.7%	8.4%	3.8%	.307	4.10	16.8%	8.2%	98	-0.66	3.66	765	58
Domingo Germán R 2022 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	19.5%	6.4%	3.5%	.257	4.65	22.6%	13.9%	204	+0.49	3.29	777	58
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	299	58
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	58
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	57
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	57
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	57
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	57
James Kaprielian R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	20.4%	10.7%	3.5%	.310	6.78	14.2%	1.6%	49	+2.10	2.80	446	57
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	56
Victor Santos R 2006 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.347	5.78	16.9%	7.4%	63	+1.36	4.09	602	56
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	56
Philip Humber R 2012 · 5.41 FIP	29	SP-	5.41	18.4%	9.3%	4.9%	.289	4.82	13.9%	6.6%	55	-0.59	2.97	362	56
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	87	24.5%	10.9%	1.39	4.53
Joe Cowley ('82-'87, 3 WAR*)	2.3	117	22.7%*	11.2%*	1.55*	4.37*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Charley Hall ('06-'18, 2 WAR*)	4.5	114	20.2%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.51*
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45