Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 29 | 29 | 158 | 666 | 115 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.3% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.79 | 5.29 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 29 | 29 | 158 | 666 | 115 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.27 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 148 | 622 | 141 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.22 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 148 | 622 | 141 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 4.51 | 3.21 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 103 | 471 | 95 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 5.24 | 5.01 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 103 | 471 | 95 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.2% | 6.2% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 5.24 | 3.87 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 131 | 547 | 125 | 35 | 17 | 92% | 5.1 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.01 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 131 | 547 | 125 | 35 | 17 | 92% | 5.1 | 22.9% | 6.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 3.68 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 21 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 6.0% | 24.1% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 2.71 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 21 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.1% | 6.0% | 24.1% | 2.4% | 4.05 | 2.65 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 66 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 53 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 16.9% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 66 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 53 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 3.54 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 48 | 200 | 47 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.3% | 7.7% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 4.12 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 48 | 200 | 47 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 4.12 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 2 | 53 | 231 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 5% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 2 | 53 | 231 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 5% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 244 | 70 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 18.0% | 3.4% | 3.83 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 244 | 70 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.7% | 7.4% | 21.3% | 3.3% | 3.83 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 38 | 149 | 35 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 3.87 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 38 | 149 | 35 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 4.7% | 4.54 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 32 | 0 | 32 | 131 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.95 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 86 | 358 | 73 | 30 | 11 | — | — | 20.5% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 3.54 | 4.54 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 5 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.06 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 44 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 39 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 34 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 203 | 0 | 190 | 819 | 179 | 64 | 28 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.12 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 213 | 0 | 200 | 861 | 188 | 67 | 29 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 403 | 106 | 841 | 3580 | 671 | 270 | 127 | 26% | 2.1 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.43 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 25 | 200 | 851 | 159 | 64 | 30 | 26% | 2.1 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Misiewicz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.97 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 137 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 67 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.72 | 2.22 | 405 | 66 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 66 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 65 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 64 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 64 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 64 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.09 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 183 | 63 |
| Josh Outman L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 63 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 63 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 63 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 63 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 62 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.42 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | .352 | 2.86 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 68 | -2.56 | 2.52 | 430 | 62 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 20.2% | 8.0% | 2.1% | .305 | 3.19 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 169 | -0.37 | 2.93 | 478 | 62 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 61 |
| Chris Rusin L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .302 | 5.03 | 12.5% | 5.0% | 98 | +1.04 | 2.80 | 488 | 61 |
| Adam Conley L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.37 | 22.5% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .210 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 674 | 61 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 61 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 1.38 | 4.74 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |