Ljay Newsome prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ljay Newsome P ACL Giants Orange

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 210 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.23

FIP4.42

K%21.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL7070

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

FB+1.4

CH-5.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	5	0	11	37	10	0	0	0%	2.1	27.0%	0.0%	27.0%	0.0%	0.84	0.82	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	5	0	11	37	10	0	0	0%	2.1	27.0%	0.0%	27.0%	0.0%	0.84	1.23	—
2017	20	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	25	25	130	530	111	16	14	100%	5.2	15.5%	3.6%	11.9%	3.7%	4.10	4.27	—
2017	20	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	25	25	130	530	111	16	14	100%	5.2	20.9%	3.0%	17.9%	2.6%	4.10	3.16	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	144	613	125	14	24	100%	5.3	15.9%	2.5%	13.4%	5.5%	4.89	5.07	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	144	613	125	14	24	100%	5.3	20.4%	2.3%	18.1%	3.9%	4.89	3.82	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	155	620	169	17	16	100%	5.5	20.7%	3.0%	17.7%	4.0%	3.54	3.94	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	155	620	169	17	16	100%	5.5	27.3%	2.7%	24.5%	2.6%	3.54	2.59	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	5	4	16	68	9	1	4	80%	3.1	13.2%	1.5%	11.8%	6.0%	5.17	5.48	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	5	4	16	68	9	1	4	80%	3.1	13.2%	1.5%	11.8%	5.9%	5.17	5.46	-0.1
2021	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	7	1	15	69	16	2	5	14%	2.1	23.2%	2.9%	20.3%	7.4%	7.98	5.59	-0.2
2021	24	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	7	1	15	69	16	2	5	14%	2.1	23.2%	2.9%	20.3%	7.2%	7.98	5.76	-0.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	2	12	53	12	2	0	18%	1.1	22.6%	3.8%	18.9%	0.0%	4.38	1.67	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	2	12	53	12	2	0	18%	1.1	22.6%	3.8%	18.9%	0.0%	4.38	1.64	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	4	17	66	22	3	2	36%	1.6	21.9%	4.5%	17.4%	3.6%	2.08	3.81	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	4	17	66	22	3	2	36%	1.6	21.9%	4.5%	17.4%	3.6%	2.08	3.81	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	4	17	66	22	3	2	36%	1.6	33.3%	4.5%	28.8%	3.0%	2.08	2.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	5	30	137	25	3	9	42%	2.5	18.2%	2.2%	16.1%	6.6%	6.53	5.61	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	3.2%	4.23	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	55	231	47	18	8	100%	6.1	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.62	+0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	51	216	43	18	8	100%	5.7	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.6%	4.67	4.83	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	SF	3	3	16	68	14	5	2	100%	5.3	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.62	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	26	110	22	9	4	100%	6.5	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.6%	4.67	4.83	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	12	72	315	61	18	15	63%	3.8	19.3%	5.6%	13.7%	4.8%	5.40	4.83	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		52	33	200	869	168	50	41	63%	3.8	19.3%	5.6%	13.7%	4.8%	5.40	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		119	91	499	2056	370	61	90	76%	4.2	18.0%	3.0%	15.0%	4.4%	4.17	4.35	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	36	200	824	148	24	36	76%	4.2	18.0%	3.0%	15.0%	4.4%	4.17	4.35	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ljay Newsome (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	21.0%	7.5%	3.2%	—	4.72	20.3%	12.1%	106	+0.30	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	73
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	72
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	69
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	69
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	68
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	68
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	67
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	67
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	65
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	65
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	64
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	64
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	64
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	64
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	64
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	63
Connor Overton R 2022 · 3.52 FIP	29	SP-	3.52	17.9%	7.0%	1.9%	.230	7.11	11.7%	4.5%	36	+3.59	3.03	250	63
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	20.1%	7.1%	1.51	4.77
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21