Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | 14 | 14 | 57 | 235 | 36 | 20 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 10.4% | 10.6% | -0.2% | 0.6% | 1.42 | 3.89 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | 14 | 14 | 57 | 235 | 36 | 20 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 0.4% | 1.42 | 3.12 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 9 | 6 | 31 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 67% | 3.5 | 11.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 2.87 | 3.39 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 9 | 6 | 31 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 67% | 3.5 | 17.1% | 4.1% | 13.0% | 0.8% | 2.87 | 2.65 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 14 | 14 | 65 | 270 | 56 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.91 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 14 | 14 | 65 | 270 | 56 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.7% | 5.6% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 3.90 | 2.67 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 139 | 556 | 133 | 30 | 5 | 83% | 5.8 | 18.3% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 1.3% | 2.14 | 3.08 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 139 | 556 | 133 | 30 | 5 | 83% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 5.4% | 18.5% | 0.9% | 2.14 | 2.30 | — |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 27.6% | 17.2% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 1.29 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 27.6% | 17.2% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 1.29 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 14 | 63 | 261 | 56 | 21 | 13 | 93% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 4.60 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 14 | 63 | 261 | 56 | 21 | 13 | 93% | 4.2 | 21.5% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 4.60 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 15 | 79 | 364 | 69 | 38 | 10 | 54% | 2.8 | 17.2% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 6.95 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 15 | 79 | 364 | 69 | 38 | 10 | 54% | 2.8 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 6.95 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 19 | 76 | 352 | 80 | 38 | 10 | 86% | 3.4 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 6.07 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 19 | 76 | 352 | 80 | 38 | 10 | 86% | 3.4 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 6.07 | 4.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 54.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 61 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 70 | 300 | 61 | 40 | 10 | — | — | 20.3% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.53 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 7 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 20.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 57 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.09 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 52 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.09 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 14 | 112 | 493 | 91 | 60 | 20 | 40% | 3.2 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 6.15 | 5.29 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 25 | 200 | 881 | 163 | 107 | 36 | 39% | 3.2 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 6.15 | 5.29 | +0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 130 | 102 | 517 | 2197 | 372 | 195 | 52 | 78% | 4.0 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.99 | 4.09 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 39 | 200 | 850 | 144 | 76 | 20 | 78% | 4.0 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.99 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Yajure (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.23 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 128 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 79 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 74 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 74 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 72 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 72 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 72 |
| Justin Masterson R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 71 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.31 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .274 | 6.16 | 12.5% | -2.7% | 64 | +0.85 | 3.85 | 780 | 71 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 71 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 70 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 70 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.43 | 27.1% | 20.7% | 45 | +0.51 | 3.92 | 287 | 70 |
| Nick Tropeano R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.92 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 4.3% | .336 | 3.91 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 83 | -1.01 | 2.28 | 446 | 70 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 69 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 69 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 69 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 69 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 68 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.54 | 14.1% | -1.8% | 25 | +0.56 | 4.39 | 353 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 20.4% | 12.0% | 1.34 | 5.11 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |