Alfonso Rivas III

Alfonso Rivas III1B Memphis Redbirds

Age 29 L/L 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP287

ISO167

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT34

Whiff%

5510.4%

xAVG

120.220

POWER43

Barrel%

244.8

Avg EV

3187.7

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE62

Chase%

7826.2%

SPEED49

Sprint

3726.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	22	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	34	32	13	2	1	1	2	7	0	0	0	406	441	625	1.066	219	500	21	6	465	201	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2019	22	A+	Stockton Ports	—	509	431	122	24	3	8	66	113	7	2	2	283	387	408	795	125	362	22	13	358	128	+17	-0	—	—	+11	2.8
2019	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	60	49	15	7	0	0	10	17	0	0	0	306	424	449	873	143	455	28	17	387	148	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	49	44	14	1	0	1	4	16	1	0	0	318	388	409	797	91	481	33	8	362	131	+2	+0	-1	-3	+1	-0.1
2021	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	237	197	56	13	0	4	35	49	5	0	1	284	405	411	816	127	361	21	15	373	139	+11	-0	—	—	+5	1.6
2022	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	287	251	59	5	2	3	29	87	4	6	1	235	324	307	631	72	344	30	10	291	83	-6	+1	-5	-7	+6	-1.1
2022	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	106	94	28	6	1	1	10	28	1	0	0	298	371	415	786	117	409	26	9	351	124	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	123	109	25	10	1	3	9	36	3	1	0	229	306	422	728	193	310	29	7	318	101	+0	+0	-2	-8	+3	-0.7
2023	26	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	260	208	69	19	3	9	49	50	2	8	0	332	463	582	1.045	250	400	19	19	454	193	+29	+2	—	—	+6	3.7
2023	26	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	70	57	25	3	1	3	11	13	2	4	1	439	543	684	1.227	246	537	19	16	531	245	+12	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	381	315	72	21	2	3	50	92	12	1	0	229	355	337	692	108	311	24	13	320	102	+1	+0	—	—	+8	1.0
2024	27	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	122	93	19	0	0	3	23	30	4	0	1	204	383	301	684	97	267	25	19	325	106	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	459	404	98	16	3	7	42	139	8	7	1	243	326	349	675	106	349	30	9	306	93	-4	+1	-7	-18	+10	-1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	22	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	34	33	11	2	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	333	353	545	898	212	428	26	3	351	124	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2019	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	509	455	100	18	2	6	42	150	7	2	2	220	296	308	603	88	304	29	8	272	70	-18	-0	—	—	+11	-0.8
2021	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	49	44	14	1	0	1	4	16	1	0	0	318	388	409	797	91	481	33	8	359	129	+2	+0	-1	-3	+1	-0.1
2021	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	237	209	52	12	0	3	23	57	5	0	1	249	338	349	687	100	330	24	10	307	94	-2	-0	—	—	+5	0.3
2022	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	287	251	59	5	2	3	29	87	4	6	1	235	324	307	631	72	344	30	10	284	78	-7	+1	-5	-7	+6	-1.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	106	97	25	5	1	1	7	34	1	0	0	258	314	361	675	103	372	32	7	288	81	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	123	109	25	10	1	3	9	36	3	1	0	229	306	422	728	193	310	29	7	320	102	+0	+0	-2	-8	+3	-0.7
2023	26	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	260	221	58	15	2	7	36	66	2	8	0	262	371	443	814	181	339	25	14	353	125	+8	+2	—	—	+6	1.5
2024	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	381	331	64	18	2	2	34	116	12	1	0	193	292	278	570	85	282	30	9	259	61	-17	+0	—	—	+8	-0.9
2019	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	603	542	123	21	3	8	48	177	7	2	2	227	298	321	619	94	317	29	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	603	512	150	33	4	9	78	137	7	2	2	293	394	426	819	133	379	23	13	367	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	286	253	66	13	0	4	27	73	6	0	1	261	346	360	706	99	352	26	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	286	241	70	14	0	5	39	65	6	0	1	290	402	411	813	120	380	23	14	371	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	393	348	84	10	3	4	36	121	5	6	1	241	321	322	643	80	354	31	9	285	79	-10	+1	-5	-7	+9	-1.3
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	393	345	87	11	3	4	39	115	5	6	1	252	337	336	673	84	362	29	10	307	79	-10	+1	-5	-7	+9	-1.3
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	453	390	99	30	4	12	53	120	7	13	1	254	353	444	797	190	335	26	12	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	453	374	119	32	5	15	69	99	7	13	1	318	433	551	984	233	397	22	15	429	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	503	436	84	24	2	3	45	153	16	1	1	193	292	278	569	85	287	30	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	503	408	91	21	2	6	73	122	16	1	1	223	362	328	691	105	301	24	15	321	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	603	543	123	21	3	8	48	177	7	2	2	227	298	320	619	94	312	29	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	286	251	66	13	0	4	27	73	6	0	1	263	346	363	709	100	356	26	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	393	349	84	10	3	4	36	121	5	6	1	241	321	321	642	80	351	31	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	453	390	99	30	4	12	53	120	7	13	1	254	353	444	797	190	330	26	12	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	503	437	84	24	2	3	45	153	16	1	1	192	292	277	569	85	282	30	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	453	390	99	30	4	12	53	120	7	13	1	254	353	444	797	190	330	26	12	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	503	437	84	24	2	3	45	153	16	1	1	192	292	277	569	85	282	30	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	STL	10%	28	24	5	1	0	1	3	7	1	0	0	208	321	375	696	167	288	25	11	299	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	29	MLB CTX	STL	10%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						287	33	0	281	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	STL	27%	380	332	72	18	2	7	37	102	8	4	1	217	310	346	657	130	286	27	10	296	86	-6	+0	-2	-7	+8	-0.6
2027	30	MLB CTX	STL	27%	104	91	20	5	1	2	10	28	2	1	0	220	311	363	673	143	285	27	10	278	86	-2	+0	-0	-2	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	563	495	118	21	4	9	52	167	10	8	1	238	323	352	675	113	337	30	9	301	84	-6	+1	-8	-20	+12	-2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	136	24	5	10	60	193	12	9	1	238	323	350	674	112	338	30	9	301	84	-6	+1	-9	-23	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2646	2325	533	117	14	39	249	753	50	26	7	229	317	342	659	113	319	28	9	293	84	-10	+1	-9	-25	+19	-2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	131	29	3	10	61	185	12	6	2	229	317	343	660	114	318	28	9	293	84	-8	+1	-7	-19	+14	-1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	3.0	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
/162	664	18	7	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#2Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	2.5	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
/162	664	26	2	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Ben Gamellast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,305 PA	3.5	2,305	41	22	253	335	383	-25	-45	0.2	0.5
/162	664	12	6	-7.1	-13.0	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	549	9	8	229	313	343	-10	-7	-0.2	-0.2
/162	664	10	10	-11.9	-8.6	-0.3	pk7: -0
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	2.6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	19	9	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	2.6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	21	9	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfonso Rivas III (OGILVIE)	29	34	43	49	62	216/308/345	129	288	7	4	27%	10%	89	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Conti 2004 · MLB	29	49→41	47→45	45→50	45	243/298/381	139	307	13	9	25%	7%	91	+0.7	221/274/342	121	294	12	6	28%	6%	73	-0.6	209/257/318	109	276	12	4	28%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Brandon Allen 2015 · MLB	29	44→47	49→55	50	48	223/288/369	146	274	16	5	25%	8%	85	+0.2	208/271/331	123	263	13	5	25%	8%	70	-0.8	189/252/302	113	238	12	3	25%	7%	56	-1.1
✕Mark Hamilton 2013 · MLB	29	47→44	47→50	47→30	48	233/306/371	138	302	15	3	27%	9%	93	+0.8	215/287/338	123	302	13	4	31%	9%	78	-0.3	202/278/314	112	290	11	1	32%	9%	67	-0.6
✕Travis Ishikawa 2013 · MLB	29	48→49	45→55	47→45	47	234/305/367	134	302	11	5	25%	8%	91	+0.7	236/305/368	132	315	13	3	28%	8%	91	+0.7	231/301/356	125	313	13	1	29%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Ryan Langerhans 2008 · MLB	28	46→43	46→50	45→50	53	223/316/362	139	295	13	6	27%	11%	94	+0.9	233/323/370	137	313	12	13	27%	11%	99	+1.2	233/329/367	134	315	11	16	27%	12%	97	+0.6
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB	28	40→48	47→50	49→50	45	204/289/345	141	273	15	6	30%	8%	80	-0.1	204/284/332	128	289	14	10	32%	8%	76	-0.4	183/265/307	125	261	14	10	34%	8%	60	-0.8
✕John-Ford Griffin 2009 · AAA	29	43→38	50	49→40	44	223/280/379	156	278	18	4	27%	7%	84	+0.2	222/281/347	125	298	11	8	28%	7%	78	-0.3	205/266/311	106	289	6	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9
✕Ricardo Gastelum 2013 · AAA	29	47	44→40	46→40	47	230/286/347	116	273	12	9	20%	7%	79	-0.2	213/271/319	106	293	9	8	29%	6%	68	-1.0	168/222/269	101	238	6	3	31%	4%	34	-0.9
✕Andy Wilkins 2018 · MLB	29	37→45	50	50→45	44	197/261/346	149	255	18	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	187/257/338	151	270	20	6	37%	8%	67	-1.1	144/219/292	148	195	22	2	39%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	41→43	50→55	50	48	212/284/365	153	266	18	7	28%	9%	83	+0.1	219/277/369	150	283	19	5	29%	7%	81	-0.1	209/266/354	145	267	20	2	29%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Simon Pond 2005 · MLB	28	45→43	48→55	49→45	51	226/303/368	142	268	15	9	22%	9%	91	+0.6	223/279/370	147	296	16	7	29%	7%	82	-0.0	217/271/359	143	288	15	5	29%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Adam Shabala 2007 · MLB	29	47→44	44→45	49→50	48	228/291/347	119	289	11	11	24%	8%	81	-0.1	214/286/308	94	291	8	13	27%	9%	70	-0.8	189/270/250	60	264	5	13	28%	9%	48	-1.6
✕Nolan Fontana 2019 · MLB	28	41→43	43→40	51→50	51	199/287/314	115	269	9	12	28%	11%	73	-0.6	204/293/327	123	297	12	10	32%	10%	78	-0.3	122/235/206	84	191	10	0	38%	11%	30	-0.8
✕Cory Aldridge 2008 · AAA	29	45→49	44→55	47→45	42	218/275/345	127	301	11	8	30%	7%	74	-0.5	236/289/393	157	311	18	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	240/288/415	175	308	22	2	29%	6%	94	+0.5
✕Nate Spears 2014 · AAA	29	41→51	41→45	50	48	203/274/303	100	262	9	10	25%	8%	65	-1.2	226/282/334	108	310	9	12	28%	7%	74	-0.5	246/283/345	99	353	6	13	30%	5%	76	-0.1
✕Matt Cepicky 2007 · MLB	29	44→43	45→50	42→30	45	221/275/344	124	281	12	4	26%	7%	74	-0.6	214/266/355	141	288	15	5	30%	7%	73	-0.6	194/243/347	153	262	17	1	32%	6%	64	-1.0
✕Rafael Alvarez 2007 · AAA	30	48	46→45	49→45	44	235/291/364	129	308	13	6	27%	7%	84	+0.2	236/309/343	107	329	9	9	28%	9%	86	+0.3	243/337/337	93	345	5	10	27%	12%	95	+0.4
✕Carlos Alvarez 2016 · AAA	28	48	41→45	46→45	52	230/309/337	108	275	8	8	19%	9%	86	+0.3	239/307/322	83	296	5	9	20%	8%	81	-0.1	245/311/305	60	306	2	7	19%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Luke Allen 2007 · AAA	28	44→43	48→50	49→45	45	227/276/368	141	273	16	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	246/296/363	117	287	12	7	18%	7%	86	+0.3	272/321/371	98	305	8	3	13%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43	46→50	49→50	42	215/271/341	126	287	13	11	30%	6%	72	-0.7	204/270/355	151	326	19	14	41%	7%	76	-0.4	143/213/283	140	229	22	18	47%	7%	37	-1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps