Alfonso Rivas III

Alfonso Rivas III1B Memphis Redbirds

Age 29 L/L 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 350 proj PA

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .309 / .347

PA350

HR7

K%27

BB%10

ISO131

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT30

Whiff%

5510.4%

xwOBA

300.285

POWER43

Barrel%

244.8

Avg EV

3187.7

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE62

Chase%

7826.2%

SPEED49

Sprint

3726.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A+	3 teams	—	603	545	123	21	3	7	45	176	7	2	2	226	293	314	607	88	315	29	7	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	3 teams	—	603	512	150	33	4	9	78	137	7	2	2	293	394	426	819	133	379	23	13	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	286	253	67	14	0	4	27	71	6	0	1	265	350	368	717	103	354	25	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	286	241	70	14	0	5	39	65	6	0	1	290	402	411	813	120	380	23	14	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	393	349	84	10	3	4	35	121	5	6	1	241	319	321	640	80	352	31	9	285	77	-10	+1	-5	-7	+11	-1.0
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	393	345	87	11	3	4	39	115	5	6	1	252	337	336	673	84	362	29	10	307	93	-3	+1	-5	-7	+11	-0.3
2023	26	AAA	3 teams	—	453	388	99	30	3	11	55	121	7	13	1	255	358	433	791	178	341	27	12	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	3 teams	—	453	374	119	32	5	15	69	99	7	13	1	318	433	551	984	233	397	22	15	429	186	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	503	437	86	26	2	3	44	161	16	1	1	197	294	286	580	89	302	32	9	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	503	408	91	21	2	6	73	122	16	1	1	223	362	328	691	105	301	24	15	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	STL	—	350	306	68	17	2	7	34	96	7	4	1	222	314	359	674	137	293	27	10	300	88	-5	+0	+0	-6	+10	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	STL	27%	380	332	72	18	2	7	37	105	8	4	1	217	310	346	657	130	291	28	10	297	85	-6	+0	-2	-7	+11	-0.4
2027	30	MLB	STL	27%	104	91	19	5	0	2	10	29	2	1	0	209	301	330	631	121	291	28	10	282	74	-3	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	563	495	117	21	3	9	52	168	10	8	1	236	321	345	667	109	335	30	9	301	89	-7	+1	-8	-20	+16	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	134	24	3	10	60	194	12	9	1	235	320	340	660	105	333	30	9	301	89	-8	+1	-9	-23	+18	-2.1
Career	—			—	2968	2610	599	136	15	43	277	851	56	30	8	230	317	343	659	113	321	29	9	294	83	-56	+3	-9	-51	+84	-3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	131	30	3	9	61	186	12	7	2	229	317	339	656	110	320	29	9	294	83	-12	+1	-2	-11	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	34	32	13	2	1	1	2	7	0	0	0	406	441	625	1.066	219	500	21	6	465	214	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2019	22	A+	Stockton Ports	—	509	431	122	24	3	8	66	113	7	2	2	283	387	408	795	125	362	22	13	358	132	+18	-0	—	—	+14	3.3
2019	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	60	49	15	7	0	0	10	17	0	0	0	306	424	449	873	143	455	28	17	387	154	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	49	44	14	1	0	1	4	16	1	0	0	318	388	409	797	91	481	33	8	362	135	+2	+0	-1	-3	+1	-0.0
2021	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	237	197	56	13	0	4	35	49	5	0	1	284	405	411	816	127	361	21	15	373	144	+12	-0	—	—	+7	1.8
2022	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	287	251	59	5	2	3	29	87	4	6	1	235	324	307	631	72	344	30	10	291	81	-6	+1	-5	-7	+8	-0.9
2022	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	106	94	28	6	1	1	10	28	1	0	0	298	371	415	786	117	409	26	9	351	127	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	123	109	25	10	1	3	9	36	3	1	0	229	306	422	728	193	310	29	7	318	102	+0	+0	-2	-8	+3	-0.6
2023	26	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	260	208	69	19	3	9	49	50	2	8	0	332	463	582	1.045	250	400	19	19	454	205	+31	+2	—	—	+7	4.1
2023	26	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	70	57	25	3	1	3	11	13	2	4	1	439	543	684	1.227	246	537	19	16	531	264	+13	+0	—	—	+2	1.6
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	381	315	72	21	2	3	50	92	12	1	0	229	355	337	692	108	311	24	13	320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+11	1.2
2024	27	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	122	93	19	0	0	3	23	30	4	0	1	204	383	301	684	97	267	25	19	325	107	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	459	404	98	16	3	7	42	139	8	7	1	243	326	349	675	106	349	30	9	306	92	-4	+1	-7	-18	+13	-1.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ji Man Choilast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,823 PA	7	1,823	65	6	234	338	423	-33	-31	1.8	1.8
	/162	664	24	2	234	338	423	-11.9	-11.3	0.7	pk7: 2
#2Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#3Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	8	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
#3Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	/162	664	26	2	237	329	420	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
#4Ben Gamellast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,305 PA	8	2,305	41	22	253	335	383	-25	-45	0.2	0.5
#4Ben Gamellast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,305 PA	/162	664	12	6	253	335	383	-7.1	-13.0	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	549	9	8	229	313	343	-10	-7	-0.2	-0.2
	/162	664	10	10	229	313	343	-11.9	-8.6	-0.2	pk7: -0
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	19	9	250	303	400	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfonso Rivas III (OGILVIE)	29	30	43	49	62	217/309/347	130	293	7	4	27%	10%	88	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Conti 2004 · MLB	29	49→41	47→45	45→50	45	243/298/381	139	307	13	9	25%	7%	90	+1.0	221/274/342	121	295	12	6	28%	6%	69	-0.4	209/257/318	109	276	12	4	28%	5%	54	-0.9
✕Brandon Allen 2015 · MLB	29	43→47	50→55	50	46	222/283/373	151	276	18	5	26%	8%	82	+0.5	208/269/332	124	265	14	5	26%	7%	66	-0.6	190/253/301	111	240	12	3	26%	7%	50	-1.0
✕Chris Snelling 2009 · MLB	27	45→39	40→45	46→40	52	215/315/306	91	280	8	7	24%	10%	79	+0.3	234/311/352	118	281	11	6	19%	9%	89	+0.9	239/319/360	121	281	9	0	17%	9%	92	+0.6
✕Ricardo Gastelum 2013 · AAA	29	45	45→40	46→40	46	226/279/347	121	265	13	9	20%	6%	73	-0.1	209/264/321	112	289	11	8	30%	5%	60	-1.0	165/217/275	110	231	9	3	32%	4%	25	-0.9
✕Simon Pond 2005 · MLB	28	45→42	48→55	49→45	50	226/303/368	142	269	15	9	22%	9%	89	+1.0	223/279/379	156	300	18	7	30%	7%	82	+0.5	216/270/369	153	291	17	5	31%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Andy Wilkins 2018 · MLB	29	35→45	51→55	50→45	43	195/258/352	157	251	20	5	31%	8%	67	-0.5	187/255/354	167	271	23	6	38%	8%	66	-0.6	144/218/315	171	193	26	2	41%	8%	39	-0.9
✕Antonio Perez 2009 · MLB	29	41	44→45	45→55	44	204/280/325	120	279	11	9	30%	8%	69	-0.4	209/267/319	110	254	10	12	21%	7%	61	-1.0	166/222/245	79	201	4	10	19%	6%	22	-0.9
✕Nolan Fontana 2019 · MLB	28	40→43	43→40	51→50	51	198/284/313	115	267	10	12	28%	10%	68	-0.5	202/287/326	124	291	12	10	32%	10%	72	-0.2	124/238/209	86	192	10	0	38%	12%	22	-0.8
✕Justin Leone 2006 · MLB	29	43→41	46→50	48→55	46	212/287/341	129	296	13	8	31%	9%	76	+0.0	211/288/355	144	273	17	13	28%	9%	80	+0.4	202/286/351	149	254	18	16	27%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Aaron Rifkin 2007 · AAA	28	42→44	48→50	47→45	45	216/276/361	145	270	15	8	26%	7%	76	+0.1	227/276/371	144	307	15	6	30%	5%	79	+0.3	223/271/368	145	302	16	3	31%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Adam Shabala 2007 · MLB	29	46→44	44→45	49→50	47	228/290/347	119	288	11	11	24%	8%	78	+0.2	213/283/308	95	291	8	13	27%	9%	65	-0.7	188/268/251	63	263	5	13	28%	9%	40	-1.6
✕Ryan Langerhans 2008 · MLB	28	46→40	47→50	45→50	53	223/316/363	140	295	13	6	27%	11%	94	+1.3	235/325/376	141	315	13	13	27%	11%	101	+1.8	235/331/375	140	316	13	16	27%	12%	100	+0.9
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
●Brad Nelson 2012 · MLB	29	40→48	49→50	44→50	47	209/271/350	141	249	17	4	24%	8%	72	-0.2	223/282/374	151	270	19	4	24%	7%	82	+0.5	217/278/362	145	258	18	2	24%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Carlos Alvarez 2016 · AAA	28	47	42→45	46→45	53	227/309/340	113	273	9	8	19%	9%	85	+0.7	234/301/318	84	292	5	9	20%	7%	75	-0.0	236/302/296	60	298	2	7	20%	7%	66	-0.2
✕Matt Cepicky 2007 · MLB	29	44→43	45→50	42→30	45	220/274/344	123	280	12	4	26%	7%	70	-0.3	213/263/361	148	289	16	5	31%	6%	70	-0.3	194/243/358	164	265	19	1	34%	6%	62	-0.7
✕John-Ford Griffin 2009 · AAA	29	43→39	52→55	49→40	44	226/282/391	166	279	19	4	27%	7%	86	+0.8	222/279/348	126	297	11	8	28%	6%	73	-0.1	205/266/311	106	289	6	7	29%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Luke Allen 2007 · AAA	28	44→43	48→50	49→45	44	227/275/367	140	272	16	8	23%	6%	77	+0.1	246/294/368	122	287	12	7	18%	6%	85	+0.7	274/322/381	107	306	10	3	13%	6%	98	+0.8
✕Mark Hamilton 2013 · MLB	29	48→44	47→50	47→30	48	239/309/380	141	308	15	3	26%	9%	95	+1.4	218/287/345	127	304	14	4	31%	8%	76	+0.1	204/278/321	117	291	13	1	32%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Clint Frazier 2023 · MLB	28	40→45	45→55	52→50	46	197/289/316	119	297	13	10	35%	10%	72	-0.2	205/287/329	124	302	13	12	34%	9%	72	-0.2	189/280/308	119	278	12	13	33%	10%	63	-0.6