Chase Shugart
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
5'11" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.05
FIP4.48
xFIP3.30
SIERA3.09
K%20.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%11.3%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†5050
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p1517.1%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
CT+0.5 (28%)
FB (42%)
SI (27%)
SL (24%)
CH (6%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 16 | 16 | 90 | 384 | 73 | 23 | 4 | 14.1% | 7.1% | 1.2% | 2.81 | 3.49 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 22 | 105 | 453 | 93 | 24 | 12 | 15.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 45 | 1 | 63 | 275 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.31 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 40 | 2 | 46 | 219 | 39 | 24 | 11 | 15.7% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 8.22 | 6.25 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 42 | 5 | 79 | 349 | 88 | 35 | 8 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 3.92 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48 | 2 | 67 | 265 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 2.97 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 27 | 8 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 69 | 290 | 66 | 28 | 8 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 4.14 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 53 | 26 | 8 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 50 | 26 | 8 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 46 | 25 | 8 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.31 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 222 | 51 | 462 | 1994 | 356 | 164 | 58 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.24 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 22 | 200 | 864 | 154 | 71 | 25 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Shugart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.76 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 179 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 84 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 81 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 81 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 80 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 80 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 79 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 79 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 79 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 78 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.47 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -0.99 | 2.97 | 230 | 78 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.