Chase Shugart
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 29
RHP
5'11" / 200 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.23
FIP4.31
K%23.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p4224.2%
K%
p7727.2%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
CT+0.5 (30%)
FB (41%)
SI (29%)
SL (22%)
CH (7%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.20 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.30 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 16 | 16 | 90 | 384 | 73 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 14.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 1.1% | 2.81 | 3.44 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 16 | 16 | 90 | 384 | 73 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 13.0% | 1.0% | 2.81 | 2.82 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 22 | 105 | 453 | 93 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.8% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 4.78 | 4.86 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 22 | 105 | 453 | 93 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.5% | 5.3% | 15.2% | 2.6% | 4.78 | 3.50 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 63 | 275 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 2% | 1.4 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.31 | 4.47 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 63 | 275 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 3.75 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 40 | 2 | 46 | 219 | 39 | 24 | 11 | 5% | 1.1 | 15.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.22 | 6.22 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 40 | 2 | 46 | 219 | 39 | 24 | 11 | 5% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 8.22 | 6.08 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 5 | 79 | 349 | 88 | 35 | 8 | 12% | 1.9 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 3.92 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 5 | 79 | 349 | 88 | 35 | 8 | 12% | 1.9 | 25.2% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 3.52 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 2 | 67 | 265 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4% | 1.4 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 2.97 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 2 | 67 | 265 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 2.97 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 43 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 19.2% | 5.6% | 4.14 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.23 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PHI | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.23 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 82 | 346 | 87 | 30 | 14 | — | — | 25.1% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 3.9% | 4.19 | 4.57 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 74 | 312 | 87 | 30 | 14 | — | — | 27.8% | 9.5% | 18.3% | 4.4% | 4.64 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 66 | 0 | 70 | 293 | 64 | 29 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 61 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 56 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 50 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 285 | 0 | 312 | 1311 | 283 | 127 | 50 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 181 | 81 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 249 | 51 | 492 | 2121 | 389 | 175 | 69 | 20% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 21 | 200 | 863 | 158 | 71 | 28 | 20% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Shugart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 3.0% | — | 5.09 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 194 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 81 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 78 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 76 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 75 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 75 |
| Jacob Barnes R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.05 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .303 | 3.55 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 101 | -1.50 | 1.88 | 551 | 75 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 74 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 74 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 74 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 74 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 74 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 74 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 74 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 74 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 1.39 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |