Chase Shugart — OGILVIE

Chase Shugart P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 200 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.97

FIP4.03

K%23.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p4724.9%

p7426.7%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

CT+0.5 (31%)

FB (39%)

SI (29%)

SL (21%)

CH (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.7	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.20	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.7	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.30	—
2019	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	16	16	90	384	73	23	4	100%	5.6	14.1%	7.1%	7.0%	1.2%	2.81	3.49	—
2019	22	A RAW	Greenville Drive	16	16	90	384	73	23	4	100%	5.6	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	1.0%	2.81	2.82	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	22	105	453	93	24	12	100%	4.8	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	3.7%	4.78	4.58	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	22	22	105	453	93	24	12	100%	4.8	20.5%	5.3%	15.2%	2.6%	4.78	3.50	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	63	275	63	21	8	2%	1.4	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.4%	5.31	4.39	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	63	275	63	21	8	2%	1.4	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.9%	5.31	3.75	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	2	46	219	39	24	11	5%	1.1	14.8%	9.9%	4.9%	5.5%	8.22	6.11	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	2	46	219	39	24	11	5%	1.1	14.8%	9.9%	4.9%	5.5%	8.22	6.11	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	40	2	46	219	39	24	11	5%	1.1	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	5.0%	8.22	6.08	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	79	349	88	35	8	12%	1.9	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.5%	4.42	3.83	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	79	349	88	35	8	12%	1.9	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.5%	4.42	3.83	+0.7
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	5	79	349	88	35	8	12%	1.9	25.2%	10.0%	15.2%	2.3%	4.42	3.52	+1.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	2	67	265	52	22	6	4%	1.4	18.3%	7.8%	10.5%	2.5%	2.97	3.92	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	2	67	265	52	22	6	4%	1.4	18.3%	7.8%	10.5%	2.5%	2.97	3.92	+0.5
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	2	67	265	52	22	6	4%	1.4	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	2.3%	2.97	3.70	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			82	0	102	419	93	35	17	0%	1.2	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	4.1%	3.87	4.47	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	48	0	57	233	63	18	10	0%	1.2	26.7%	8.4%	18.3%	4.6%	3.81	4.44	+0.1
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	48	0	57	233	63	18	10	0%	1.2	26.7%	8.4%	18.3%	4.6%	3.81	4.44	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	PHI	7	0	8	31	9	1	0	0%	1.1	29.0%	3.2%	25.8%	0.0%	1.12	1.06	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	PHI	41	0	49	202	54	17	10	0%	1.2	26.7%	8.4%	18.3%	5.0%	4.25	4.63	-0.0
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	PHI	41	0	49	202	54	17	10	0%	1.2	26.7%	8.4%	18.3%	5.0%	4.25	4.63	-0.0
ROS	29	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.2%	3.97	4.03	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.2%	3.97	4.03	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	63	258	69	20	11	—	—	26.7%	7.9%	18.8%	4.2%	3.83	4.40	+0.1
FULL	29	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	55	230	69	20	11	—	—	29.9%	8.8%	21.1%	4.7%	4.39	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	66	0	70	293	65	28	11	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.8%	4.79	4.90	-0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	62	0	65	274	58	27	11	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	4.0%	4.99	5.13	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	63	0	66	279	61	27	11	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.8%	4.79	4.90	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	59	0	62	262	56	26	10	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	4.0%	4.99	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		209	0	236	982	215	89	39	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.9%	4.42	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	0	200	833	182	75	33	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.9%	4.42	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		264	51	511	2198	402	172	69	19%	1.9	18.3%	7.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.38	4.27	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	20	200	860	157	67	27	19%	1.9	18.3%	7.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.38	4.27	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Shugart (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	20.0%	9.7%	3.0%	—	5.01	21.6%	12.0%	134	+0.34	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	78
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	78
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	77
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	77
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	76
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	76
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	76
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	75
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	75
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	75
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	75
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	74
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	74
Jacob Barnes R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	29	SU	5.09	21.9%	10.0%	4.7%	.303	3.54	23.1%	15.1%	101	-1.55	1.84	551	74
Danny Farquhar R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	21.7%	7.6%	3.3%	.272	3.62	22.3%	11.3%	62	-0.40	3.62	224	74
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	21.1%	9.7%	1.38	4.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63