Chase Shugart

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 30 RHP 5'11" / 200 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	42	5	79	4.42	3.52	25.2%	10.0%	1.0	K 22.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.77
2025	28	MIX3 levels	48	2	67	2.97	3.70	19.6%	8.3%	0.7	K 18.5% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.90
2026	29	MIX2 levels	53	0	62	3.65	3.98	26.8%	7.9%	0.4	K 26.5% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.24
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	44	0	46	4.34	4.58	23.8%	9.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ92% MLB	31	MLBPHI	36	0	38	4.62	4.81	23.0%	10.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ93% MLB	32	MLBPHI	27	0	28	4.89	5.06	22.2%	10.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%73

FB Velo72

xwOBA vs62

Form2.25 ERA (proj 4.34) · K 21.5% (proj 23.8%) · BB 8.9% (proj 9.6%) · last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Neil Wagner (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.34

FIP4.58

K%23.8%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p7326.5%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.7	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.20	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	3	3	5	20	6	1	0	100%	1.7	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.80	1.30	—
2019	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	16	16	90	384	73	23	4	100%	5.6	14.1%	7.1%	7.0%	1.2%	2.81	3.49	—
2019	22	A RAW	Greenville Drive	16	16	90	384	73	23	4	100%	5.6	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	1.0%	2.81	2.82	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	22	105	453	93	24	12	100%	4.8	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	3.7%	4.78	4.58	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	22	22	105	453	93	24	12	100%	4.8	20.5%	5.3%	15.2%	2.6%	4.78	3.50	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	63	275	63	21	8	2%	1.4	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.4%	5.31	4.39	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	63	275	63	21	8	2%	1.4	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.9%	5.31	3.75	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	40	2	46	219	39	24	11	5%	1.1	15.3%	9.9%	5.5%	5.5%	8.22	6.07	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	40	2	46	219	39	24	11	5%	1.1	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	5.0%	8.22	6.08	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	79	349	88	35	8	12%	1.9	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	2.5%	4.42	3.77	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	79	349	88	35	8	12%	1.9	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	2.5%	4.42	3.77	+0.7
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	5	79	349	88	35	8	12%	1.9	25.2%	10.0%	15.2%	2.3%	4.42	3.52	+1.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	2	67	265	52	22	6	4%	1.4	18.5%	7.8%	10.7%	2.5%	2.97	3.90	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	2	67	265	52	22	6	4%	1.4	18.5%	7.8%	10.7%	2.5%	2.97	3.90	+0.5
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	2	67	265	52	22	6	4%	1.4	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	2.3%	2.97	3.70	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	62	254	68	20	10	0%	1.2	26.5%	8.5%	17.9%	4.2%	3.65	4.24	+0.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	62	254	68	20	10	0%	1.2	26.5%	8.5%	17.9%	4.2%	3.65	4.24	+0.2
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	62	254	68	20	10	0%	1.2	26.8%	7.9%	18.9%	3.9%	3.65	3.98	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			87	0	107	440	98	37	17	0%	1.2	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.9%	3.77	4.37	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PHI	44	0	46	194	46	19	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	3.4%	4.34	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	39	0	41	173	40	17	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.0%	13.1%	3.7%	4.62	4.81	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	29	0	30	128	28	13	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.4%	11.9%	3.9%	4.89	5.06	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	36	0	38	160	37	16	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.0%	13.1%	3.7%	4.62	4.81	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	27	0	28	118	26	12	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.4%	11.9%	3.9%	4.89	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	0	173	718	161	65	27	0%	1.2	22.4%	9.1%	13.4%	3.8%	4.14	4.46	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		173	0	200	829	186	75	31	0%	1.2	22.4%	9.1%	13.4%	3.8%	4.14	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		269	51	516	2219	411	174	69	19%	1.9	18.5%	7.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.36	4.23	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	20	200	860	159	68	27	19%	1.9	18.5%	7.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.36	4.23	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 8 IPFIP 1.06 → 1.36 (+0.30)K% 29.0% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.860	24.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×0.900	2.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.06 → 1.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 21 IPFIP 1.92 → 2.13 (+0.20)K% 25.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.32%	—	×0.860	21.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×0.900	6.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.915	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.92 → 2.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 71 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.77 (+0.30)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.860	21.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.22%	—	×0.900	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.47%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 46 IPFIP 5.74 → 6.07 (+0.32)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.81%	—	×0.860	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.96%	—	×0.900	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	5.02%	÷1.008	×1.100	5.48%

Result: FIP 5.74 → 6.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 32 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.88 (+0.59)K% 20.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.42%	—	×0.880	17.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.050	8.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷0.939	×1.100	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 31 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.88 (+0.75)K% 25.6% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.810	20.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×1.100	8.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.004	×1.200	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greenville Drive · 105 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.58 (+1.08)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.53%	—	×0.770	15.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.30%	—	×1.150	6.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.891	×1.250	3.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreenville Drive · 90 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.49 (+0.66)K% 19.0% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.01%	—	×0.740	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.99%	—	×1.180	7.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.091	×1.300	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Shugart (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	23.8%	9.6%	3.4%	—	4.92	22.7%	12.6%	71	+0.34	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	75
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	74
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	73
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	73
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	72
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	72
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	72
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	71
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	70
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	70
Ryan Tepera R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	25.9%	8.7%	3.4%	.282	3.20	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.70	2.35	445	70
Tommy Nance R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	30	SU	3.96	24.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.228	3.41	24.1%	16.8%	99	-0.55	2.08	360	70
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	69
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	69
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	69
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	69
Yennier Cano R 2024 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.1%	9.2%	2.4%	.310	3.30	21.6%	13.7%	108	-0.10	2.43	381	69
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	69
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	46	22.7%	9.5%	1.45	4.20
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*