Thaddeus Ward — OGILVIE

Thaddeus Ward P Norfolk Tides

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 124

ERA5.34

FIP5.71

K%17.8%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%1.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

CH+0.6

FB+0.6

CT-1.5

SL-3.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	525	157	57	6	100%	5.1	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	1.3%	2.14	3.53	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	126	525	157	57	6	100%	5.1	29.9%	10.9%	19.0%	1.1%	2.14	2.59	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	2	8	39	11	5	0	100%	4.0	28.2%	12.8%	15.4%	0.0%	5.62	2.34	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	2	2	8	39	11	5	0	100%	4.0	28.2%	12.8%	15.4%	0.0%	5.62	2.23	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	51	213	66	19	3	100%	3.9	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	2.6%	2.28	3.90	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	13	51	213	66	19	3	100%	3.9	31.0%	8.9%	22.1%	1.4%	2.28	2.40	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	6	58	261	49	33	10	19%	1.8	18.8%	16.9%	1.9%	4.4%	5.25	6.06	-1.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	6	58	261	49	33	10	19%	1.8	18.8%	16.9%	1.9%	4.4%	5.25	6.06	-1.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	32	6	58	261	49	33	10	19%	1.8	18.8%	12.6%	6.1%	3.8%	5.25	5.35	-0.5
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	28	120	554	107	93	13	100%	4.3	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	2.6%	5.64	5.10	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	28	120	554	107	93	13	100%	4.3	16.0%	15.1%	0.9%	2.6%	5.64	5.10	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	28	28	120	554	107	93	13	100%	4.3	19.3%	16.8%	2.5%	2.3%	5.64	5.06	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	32	23	120	576	131	94	11	72%	3.7	18.9%	14.7%	4.2%	2.2%	5.34	4.59	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	32	23	120	576	131	94	11	72%	3.7	18.9%	14.7%	4.2%	2.2%	5.34	4.59	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	32	23	120	576	131	94	11	72%	3.7	22.7%	16.3%	6.4%	1.9%	5.34	4.46	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	0	35	160	30	27	7	0%	1.4	18.8%	16.9%	1.9%	4.4%	6.37	6.27	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	BAL	1	1	6	25	5	4	1	100%	6.0	17.8%	16.7%	1.1%	2.9%	5.34	5.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	72	303	53	49	10	100%	6.0	17.6%	16.3%	1.4%	3.2%	5.55	5.78	-0.7
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	67	282	49	45	10	100%	6.1	17.3%	16.1%	1.2%	3.4%	5.72	5.90	-0.7
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	26	110	19	18	3	100%	6.5	17.6%	16.3%	1.4%	3.2%	5.55	5.78	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	37	156	27	25	5	100%	6.2	17.3%	16.1%	1.2%	3.4%	5.72	5.90	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	11	99	427	77	70	16	30%	2.7	17.9%	16.4%	1.5%	3.7%	5.91	5.69	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		74	21	200	866	156	142	32	29%	2.7	17.9%	16.4%	1.5%	3.7%	5.91	5.69	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		132	97	483	2168	427	307	51	73%	3.7	19.7%	14.2%	5.5%	2.4%	4.25	4.53	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	40	200	897	177	127	21	73%	3.7	19.7%	14.2%	5.5%	2.4%	4.25	4.53	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thaddeus Ward (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	17.8%	16.7%	2.9%	—	5.84	17.5%	1.3%	139	+0.13	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	67
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	65
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	63
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	62
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	62
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	61
Daniel Gossett R 2022 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.8%	12.4%	2.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	727	59
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	59
Eddie Gamboa R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SP-	4.80	13.7%	17.4%	1.2%	.260	4.36	15.9%	4.9%	259	-0.44	2.92	385	59
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	59
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	59
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	59
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	27	SP-	5.81	17.8%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.53	17.0%	8.1%	107	-1.28	4.53	340	58
Mike Hauschild R 2019 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP	5.76	11.5%	14.9%	3.2%	.325	8.79	11.3%	-0.1%	54	+3.03	3.17	579	58
Sean O'Sullivan R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP-	5.76	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	290	57
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	57
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	56
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	56
Daniel Corcino R 2019 · 5.83 FIP	28	SP	5.83	17.5%	12.2%	4.9%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	299	56
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	72	17.6%	16.4%	1.22	5.53
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82