Thaddeus Ward
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 211 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 131
ERA5.49
FIP5.96
K%18.6%
BB%19.0%
K-BB%-0.4%
ROS IP76
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.361
CH+0.6
FB+0.6
CT-1.5
SL-3.2
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 126 | 525 | 157 | 57 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 2.14 | 3.48 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 126 | 525 | 157 | 57 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 29.9% | 10.9% | 19.0% | 1.1% | 2.14 | 2.59 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 28.2% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 5.62 | 2.34 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 2 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 28.2% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 5.62 | 2.23 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 51 | 213 | 66 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 2.28 | 3.90 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 51 | 213 | 66 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 31.0% | 8.9% | 22.1% | 1.4% | 2.28 | 2.40 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 6 | 58 | 261 | 49 | 33 | 10 | 19% | 1.8 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 5.25 | 6.06 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 6 | 58 | 261 | 49 | 33 | 10 | 19% | 1.8 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.25 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 28 | 28 | 120 | 554 | 107 | 93 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.0% | 17.6% | -0.6% | 2.7% | 5.64 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 28 | 28 | 120 | 554 | 107 | 93 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 19.3% | 16.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.64 | 5.06 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 32 | 23 | 120 | 576 | 131 | 94 | 11 | 72% | 3.7 | 20.0% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 5.34 | 4.88 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 32 | 23 | 120 | 576 | 131 | 94 | 11 | 72% | 3.7 | 22.7% | 16.3% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 5.34 | 4.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 76 | 322 | 60 | 61 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 19.0% | -0.4% | 3.0% | 5.49 | 5.96 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 56 | 55 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 5.73 | 6.00 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 51 | 51 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 5.91 | 6.11 | -1.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.3% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 5.73 | 6.00 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 28 | 28 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 5.91 | 6.11 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 11 | 99 | 427 | 78 | 75 | 16 | 30% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 17.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 6.03 | 5.82 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 21 | 200 | 866 | 158 | 152 | 32 | 29% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 17.6% | 0.7% | 3.7% | 6.03 | 5.82 | -1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 132 | 97 | 483 | 2168 | 439 | 335 | 52 | 73% | 3.7 | 20.2% | 15.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.66 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 40 | 200 | 897 | 181 | 139 | 21 | 73% | 3.7 | 20.2% | 15.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thaddeus Ward (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.96 | 18.6% | 19.0% | 3.0% | — | 6.05 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 139 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 63 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 61 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 60 |
| Mark Appel R 2027 · 5.85 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.85 | 15.6% | 15.6% | 3.8% | .260 | 4.17 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 40 | -1.68 | 4.17 | 363 | 58 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 57 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.54 | 14.1% | 15.9% | 2.9% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 353 | 57 |
| Daniel Gossett R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 727 | 57 |
| David Fletcher R 2027 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 57 |
| Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.90 | 17.6% | 14.5% | 4.5% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 187 | 57 |
| Mike Hauschild R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.80 | 11.5% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .325 | 8.43 | 11.3% | -0.1% | 54 | +2.63 | 3.14 | 579 | 56 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.12 | 14.2% | 11.5% | 5.0% | .330 | 5.88 | 8.5% | -3.8% | 51 | -0.24 | 3.95 | 489 | 56 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 55 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 55 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.66 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 4.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 299 | 54 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2023 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 53 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 53 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 53 |
| Jose A. Flores R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 237 | 53 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 53 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 53 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 72 | 18.3% | 18.4% | 1.24 | 5.70 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |