Jake Irvin — OGILVIE

Jake Irvin P Washington Nationals

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 234 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.63

FIP4.78

K%20.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

CH+0.8 (8%)

SI (19%)

CU (24%)

FB-0.6 (49%)

SL-0.8 (9%)

CT-1.4 (11%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	7	3	13	53	9	3	0	43%	1.8	11.5%	7.1%	4.5%	0.0%	1.42	3.02	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	7	3	13	53	9	3	0	43%	1.8	17.0%	5.7%	11.3%	0.0%	1.42	2.39	—
2019	22	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	25	25	128	536	113	38	14	100%	5.1	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	3.5%	3.79	4.75	—
2019	22	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	25	25	128	536	113	38	14	100%	5.1	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	2.6%	3.79	3.65	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	103	424	107	28	9	100%	4.3	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.83	3.76	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	103	424	107	28	9	100%	4.3	25.2%	6.6%	18.6%	2.1%	3.83	2.97	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	143	628	119	65	23	100%	4.9	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	3.7%	4.77	4.86	+0.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	143	628	119	65	23	100%	4.9	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	3.7%	4.77	4.86	+0.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	143	628	119	65	23	100%	4.9	18.9%	10.4%	8.6%	3.7%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	188	769	156	51	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.41	4.30	+1.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	188	769	156	51	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.41	4.30	+1.3
2024	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	33	188	769	156	51	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.41	4.26	+1.4
2025	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	180	787	124	62	38	100%	5.5	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	4.8%	5.70	5.42	-1.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	180	787	124	62	38	100%	5.5	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	4.8%	5.70	5.42	-1.0
2025	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	33	180	787	124	62	38	100%	5.5	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	4.8%	5.70	5.50	-1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			109	109	580	2492	469	209	102	100%	5.3	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	4.1%	5.03	4.85	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	22	22	103	446	102	43	15	100%	4.7	22.2%	10.3%	11.8%	3.7%	4.91	4.57	+0.4
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	22	22	103	446	102	43	15	100%	4.7	22.2%	10.3%	11.8%	3.7%	4.91	4.57	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	ROK RAW	WSH	1	1	3	11	3	0	0	100%	3.0	27.3%	0.0%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.80	—
2026	29	AA RAW	WSH	2	2	8	29	9	1	0	100%	4.2	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.92	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	WSH	19	19	91	406	90	42	15	100%	4.8	22.2%	10.3%	11.8%	3.7%	5.52	4.57	+0.4
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	WSH	19	19	91	406	90	42	15	100%	4.8	22.2%	10.3%	11.8%	3.7%	5.52	4.57	+0.4
ROS	29	MLB MLE	WSH	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.6	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	4.1%	4.63	4.78	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	WSH	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.5	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	4.1%	4.63	4.78	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	116	501	113	48	17	—	—	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	3.4%	4.88	4.59	+0.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	104	441	113	48	17	—	—	25.7%	10.9%	14.8%	3.9%	5.41	4.46	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	162	686	133	65	29	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	4.2%	5.18	5.33	-0.8
2028	31	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	152	640	119	63	28	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.8%	8.9%	4.4%	5.41	5.56	-1.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	27	27	162	684	133	65	29	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	4.2%	5.18	5.33	-0.8
2028	31	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	152	642	120	63	28	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.8%	8.9%	4.4%	5.41	5.56	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	907	3873	733	341	161	100%	5.5	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	4.2%	5.11	4.90	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	854	162	75	35	100%	5.5	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	4.2%	5.11	4.90	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		173	169	858	3643	670	303	136	98%	5.0	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.7%	4.59	4.65	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	849	156	71	32	98%	5.0	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.7%	4.59	4.65	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Irvin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	17.3%	7.7%	4.2%	—	5.44	19.0%	9.4%	314	+0.14	—	—	—
Kyle Gibson R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP	4.42	18.6%	8.6%	3.3%	.323	4.09	21.7%	12.9%	424	-0.33	3.56	1,689	70
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	2.90	806	66
Dan Straily R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	29	SP	4.87	19.1%	9.1%	4.1%	.247	5.89	18.2%	10.6%	115	+1.02	3.50	890	64
Chad Bettis R 2018 · 4.53 FIP	29	SP-	4.53	15.4%	8.2%	3.1%	.278	4.35	14.6%	8.3%	64	-0.18	3.67	603	59
Andrew Cashner R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP	4.59	19.0%	9.7%	3.4%	.307	4.56	14.5%	5.4%	470	-0.03	3.64	786	57
Erasmo Ramírez R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	29	SP	4.80	15.6%	8.4%	3.5%	.281	3.90	17.7%	13.4%	127	-0.90	2.92	908	56
Mike Foltynewicz R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	29	SP	5.53	16.6%	6.1%	5.6%	.249	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	938	54
Michael Pineda R 2017 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	22.4%	5.1%	4.6%	.300	3.51	23.2%	18.4%	173	-0.85	2.00	786	51
Tylor Megill R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	28	SP	4.62	16.9%	9.8%	3.1%	.322	3.35	26.9%	16.7%	205	-1.27	3.02	603	49
Chris Tillman R 2017 · 6.04 FIP	29	SP-	6.04	14.2%	11.5%	4.9%	.330	5.82	8.5%	-3.8%	51	-0.22	3.92	489	48
JC Ramírez R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	16.9%	7.7%	3.3%	.287	5.48	12.2%	2.1%	41	+1.01	3.75	369	47
Colin Rea R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	29	SP	4.45	16.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.289	3.23	20.1%	17.1%	50	-1.22	2.57	1,112	47
Jerad Eickhoff R 2019 · 5.97 FIP	29	SP	5.97	20.4%	8.3%	6.5%	.244	5.03	19.4%	12.8%	214	-0.94	3.87	875	46
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,160	46
Adrian Sampson R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	29	SP-	5.78	16.1%	8.2%	5.5%	.271	4.55	15.8%	9.1%	293	-1.23	3.23	1,012	45
Tom Koehler R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.49	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.08	4.38	474	45
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	469	45
Ian Kennedy R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	24.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.293	4.94	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.72	2.88	864	44
Matt Garza R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	31	SP	4.61	15.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.315	4.30	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.31	4.00	365	43
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	43

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	162	18.4%	8.9%	1.65	5.24
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56