Jake Irvin
P
Washington Nationals
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 234 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.32
FIP4.47
K%21.5%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p6725.4%
xwOBA vs
p190.349
CH+0.8 (4%)
SI (24%)
CU (26%)
FB-0.6 (52%)
SL-0.8 (8%)
CT-1.4 (11%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 7 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 43% | 1.8 | 11.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 3.02 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 7 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 43% | 1.8 | 17.0% | 5.7% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 2.39 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 25 | 25 | 128 | 536 | 113 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 3.79 | 4.80 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 25 | 25 | 128 | 536 | 113 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 103 | 424 | 107 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.79 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 103 | 424 | 107 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 25.2% | 6.6% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 3.83 | 2.97 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 143 | 628 | 119 | 65 | 23 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 143 | 628 | 119 | 65 | 23 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 188 | 769 | 156 | 51 | 29 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.41 | 4.30 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 188 | 769 | 156 | 51 | 29 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.41 | 4.26 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 180 | 787 | 124 | 62 | 38 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.70 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 180 | 787 | 124 | 62 | 38 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.70 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 12 | 12 | 55 | 239 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.4% | 9.6% | 15.8% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 65 | 272 | 59 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.32 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 59 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.32 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 119 | 511 | 120 | 45 | 18 | — | — | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.19 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 116 | 491 | 120 | 45 | 18 | — | — | 24.4% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.16 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 162 | 686 | 138 | 60 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 4.97 | 5.12 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 152 | 640 | 124 | 58 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.20 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 138 | 60 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 4.97 | 5.12 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 124 | 59 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.20 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 167 | 167 | 919 | 3912 | 758 | 331 | 160 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 4.77 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 852 | 165 | 72 | 35 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 163 | 159 | 810 | 3436 | 633 | 281 | 128 | 98% | 5.0 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 848 | 156 | 69 | 32 | 98% | 5.0 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Irvin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 4.2% | — | 5.23 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 314 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Merrill Kelly R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 46 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 45 |
| Miguel González R 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 44 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.42 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.09 | 4.39 | 474 | 44 |
| Matt Garza R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 43 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.89 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .276 | 4.56 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.33 | 3.49 | 869 | 42 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 42 |
| Marco Estrada R 2029 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 42 |
| Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.42 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .323 | 4.10 | 21.7% | 12.9% | 424 | -0.32 | 3.60 | 1,689 | 42 |
| Thad Weber R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.82 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.19 | 4.55 | 363 | 41 |
| Nate Long R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 41 |
| Cory Riordan R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 41 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.60 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.56 | 14.5% | 5.4% | 470 | -0.04 | 3.77 | 786 | 41 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.22 | 19.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | .294 | 4.79 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 222 | +0.57 | 2.90 | 806 | 40 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.14 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.61 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 39 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 39 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.07 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.2% | .325 | 4.58 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 240 | -0.49 | 3.54 | 569 | 39 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2027 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.10 | 12.7% | 6.8% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.80 | 14.4% | 9.9% | 195 | -0.30 | 4.34 | 337 | 38 |
| JC Ramírez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.58 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .287 | 5.37 | 12.2% | 2.1% | 41 | +0.79 | 3.73 | 369 | 38 |
| Caleb Boushley R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.17 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 4.2% | .294 | 4.15 | 17.3% | 11.1% | 211 | -1.02 | 2.92 | 790 | 38 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 143 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 5.10 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |