Jake Irvin
P
Washington Nationals
+0.0
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 234 lbs
MLB
ERA5.19
FIP5.35
xFIP4.48
SIERA4.14
K%17.8%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%10.0%
IP173
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5555
CMD4040
K†4045
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p4724.9%
K%
p5823.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.369
CH+0.8 (5%)
SI (24%)
CU (22%)
FB-0.6 (52%)
SL-0.8 (8%)
CT-1.4 (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 7 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 11.5% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 3.02 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 25 | 25 | 128 | 536 | 113 | 38 | 14 | 15.6% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 3.79 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 24 | 24 | 103 | 424 | 107 | 28 | 9 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 3.76 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 29 | 29 | 143 | 628 | 119 | 65 | 23 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.91 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 188 | 769 | 156 | 51 | 29 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.02 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 33 | 33 | 180 | 787 | 124 | 62 | 38 | 15.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.70 | 5.69 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 4 | 4 | 19 | 87 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 24.1% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 6.16 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 116 | 52 | 25 | 19.4% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 4.77 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 161 | 686 | 137 | 63 | 28 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 4.93 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 116 | 54 | 26 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.26 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 101 | 50 | 24 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 5.37 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 87 | 45 | 22 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 5.48 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 74 | 41 | 20 | 17.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 5.61 | 5.69 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 63 | 37 | 18 | 16.4% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 5.74 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 59 | 30 | 16 | 17.6% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 5.72 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 49 | 27 | 14 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 5.81 | 5.87 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 151 | 774 | 3284 | 593 | 269 | 123 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 848 | 153 | 69 | 32 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Irvin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.37 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 4.3% | — | 5.44 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 392 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Thad Weber R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 46 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.43 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.50 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.07 | 4.37 | 474 | 45 |
| Matt Garza R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.81 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.32 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.49 | 4.03 | 365 | 45 |
| Nate Long R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.69 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 151 | 45 |
| Greg Peavey R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.37 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 147 | 43 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2027 · 5.71 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.71 | 12.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | .294 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 9.9% | 195 | -0.70 | 4.42 | 337 | 43 |
| Chris Volstad R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.30 | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | .295 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 7.6% | 185 | -0.00 | 3.13 | 517 | 42 |
| Miguel González R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.53 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | .289 | 4.28 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 469 | 42 |
| Cory Riordan R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 42 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2029 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .268 | 4.81 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.49 | 4.32 | 287 | 40 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.37 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | .289 | 3.76 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.61 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 40 |
| David Martinez R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.88 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 297 | 40 |
| Marco Estrada R 2029 · 4.19 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.19 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .213 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.37 | 4.10 | 710 | 40 |
| Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.30 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.07 | 21.7% | 12.9% | 424 | -0.23 | 3.61 | 1,689 | 39 |
| Randy Wynne R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.22 | 12.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .290 | 6.49 | 12.8% | 6.9% | 227 | +1.27 | 4.38 | 461 | 38 |
| David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.25 | 12.2% | 6.1% | 2.6% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 443 | 38 |
| Greg Ross R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.41 | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 357 | 38 |
| Caleb Boushley R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.90 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .294 | 4.23 | 17.3% | 11.1% | 211 | -0.67 | 3.09 | 790 | 38 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.92 | 16.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | .325 | 4.53 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 240 | -0.39 | 3.55 | 569 | 38 |
| Chad Bettis R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.64 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.32 | 14.6% | 8.3% | 64 | -0.32 | 3.74 | 603 | 38 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.