Fitz Stadler prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Fitz Stadler P Buffalo Bisons

Age 29 RHP 6'9" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%22.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	5	0	11	44	17	3	0	0%	2.3	38.6%	6.8%	31.8%	0.0%	0.79	0.70	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	5	0	11	44	17	3	0	0%	2.3	38.6%	6.8%	31.8%	0.0%	0.79	0.89	—
2019	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	27	16	106	464	94	39	5	59%	3.9	15.0%	9.9%	5.1%	1.3%	4.92	3.78	—
2019	22	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	27	16	106	464	94	39	5	59%	3.9	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	1.1%	4.92	3.04	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	49	222	69	35	7	3%	1.2	25.7%	17.1%	8.6%	3.6%	5.55	5.07	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	49	222	69	35	7	3%	1.2	31.1%	15.8%	15.3%	3.2%	5.55	4.29	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	36	164	42	26	2	0%	1.2	21.2%	16.1%	5.1%	1.8%	3.96	4.36	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	36	164	42	26	2	0%	1.2	21.2%	16.1%	5.1%	1.8%	3.96	4.36	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	36	164	42	26	2	0%	1.2	25.6%	15.9%	9.8%	1.2%	3.96	3.65	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	3	0	3	20	5	9	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	45.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	15.00	6.69	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	3	0	3	20	5	9	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	45.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	15.00	6.69	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	3	0	3	20	5	9	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	45.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	15.00	8.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	TOR	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	109	27	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.70	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		104	17	205	914	183	122	17	16%	2.0	20.1%	13.4%	6.7%	1.8%	4.82	4.11	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	17	200	890	179	119	16	16%	2.0	20.1%	13.4%	6.7%	1.8%	4.82	4.11	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fitz Stadler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	22.8%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.77	22.5%	11.0%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	76
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	76
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	75
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	75
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	75
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	74
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	73
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	73
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	73
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	72