Tony Santillan — OGILVIE

Tony Santillan P Cincinnati Reds

+0.8 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 285 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.7 · 2026

ERA3.40

FIP3.93

xFIP3.74

SIERA3.64

K%26.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%16.1%

IP58

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2026

K†6565

FB+3.2 (62%)

SL+1.6 (38%)

CU (38%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	AZL Reds	8	7	20	85	19	11	1	15.2%	16.2%	1.6%	5.03	4.77	+0.0
2016	19	A	Dayton Dragons	15	15	69	302	84	40	7	19.7%	16.0%	3.0%	5.19	5.09	-0.0
2017	20	A	Dayton Dragons	25	24	128	533	128	56	9	17.8%	12.4%	1.9%	3.38	4.19	+1.6
2018	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	26	26	149	629	134	38	13	16.8%	6.8%	2.6%	3.08	3.95	+2.3
2019	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	21	21	102	465	92	54	8	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	4.84	4.52	+0.9
2021	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	39	10	81	342	107	36	12	29.5%	10.7%	3.4%	2.55	3.82	+1.2
2022	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	21	0	20	96	21	11	1	21.9%	11.5%	1.0%	5.49	3.26	+0.4
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	38	0	35	178	41	32	5	22.0%	18.4%	3.3%	7.39	5.39	-0.2
2024	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	67	1	69	296	99	31	7	31.3%	10.8%	2.2%	3.28	3.02	+1.6
2025	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	80	0	74	301	75	29	7	24.9%	9.6%	2.1%	2.44	3.39	+1.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	8	0	8	30	10	6	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	29	MLB	CIN	50	—	50	211	58	21	6	27.4%	10.0%	2.6%	3.38	3.86	+0.6
2026 Total	29	MLB	CIN	—	—	58	241	68	27	6	28.2%	11.2%	2.3%	2.91	3.33	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	CIN	56	—	56	237	66	26	6	27.7%	10.9%	2.5%	3.68	3.91	+0.7
2028	31	MLB	CIN	54	—	54	229	62	25	6	27.1%	11.0%	2.6%	3.88	4.01	+0.6
2029	32	MLB	CIN	52	—	52	220	58	24	6	26.5%	11.1%	2.7%	4.03	4.13	+0.5
2030	33	MLB	CIN	50	—	50	210	54	24	6	25.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.17	4.26	+0.4
2031	34	MLB	CIN	47	—	47	199	50	23	6	25.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.40	+0.3
2032	35	MLB	CIN	44	—	44	188	46	22	6	24.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.45	4.55	+0.2
2033	36	MLB	CIN	42	—	42	176	41	21	5	23.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.61	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			348	104	755	3257	686	378	77	21.1%	11.6%	2.4%	3.74	4.10	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—			92	28	200	863	182	100	20	21.1%	11.6%	2.4%	3.74	4.10	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tony Santillan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	27.4%	10.0%	2.6%	—	4.01	27.1%	16.1%	162	+0.15	—	—	—
John Axford R 2029 · 3.28 FIP	32	SW	3.28	24.8%	11.2%	1.6%	.333	3.94	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.66	3.28	197	80
Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	29	SW	3.77	20.6%	10.9%	1.9%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.03	2.26	602	80
Blake Wood R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	29	SW	2.91	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.57	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.66	2.91	210	79
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	78
Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	29	SW	3.85	26.5%	8.4%	3.5%	.292	4.74	21.4%	16.7%	57	+0.89	2.83	363	78
Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	29	SW	4.03	24.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.65	2.38	160	77
Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	29	SW	3.81	20.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.353	4.68	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.87	2.67	279	77
Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	29	SW	3.40	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.44	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.04	2.83	432	77
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	77
Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	29	SW	3.56	21.4%	11.1%	1.6%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.33	2.83	228	76
Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	76
Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP	29	SW	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.89	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.84	3.05	227	76
Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	75
Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	29	SW	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.31	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.90	3.41	104	75
Blake Treinen R 2026 · 2.99 FIP	29	SW	2.99	22.8%	6.8%	1.8%	.332	2.92	26.6%	18.0%	165	-0.07	1.54	521	75
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	29	SW	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.21	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.01	2.80	410	75
Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	74
Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	74
Kirby Yates R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	29	SW	2.91	26.4%	9.6%	1.5%	.310	2.22	38.5%	32.2%	180	-0.69	0.67	447	74

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.576 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$1.0M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.5M
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$8M	+$1M