Tony Santillan
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 285 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION57 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.14
FIP4.18
xFIP3.74
SIERA3.64
K%25.7%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%15.4%
IP58
K†6565
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
FB+3.2 (65%)
SL+1.6 (35%)
CU (33%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Reds | 8 | 7 | 20 | 85 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 15.2% | 16.2% | 1.6% | 5.03 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Dayton Dragons | 15 | 15 | 69 | 302 | 84 | 40 | 7 | 19.7% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Dayton Dragons | 25 | 24 | 128 | 533 | 128 | 56 | 9 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 4.07 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 26 | 26 | 149 | 629 | 134 | 38 | 13 | 16.8% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 3.08 | 4.06 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 21 | 21 | 102 | 465 | 92 | 54 | 8 | 16.0% | 12.8% | 2.2% | 4.84 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 39 | 10 | 81 | 342 | 107 | 36 | 12 | 29.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 2.55 | 3.79 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 21 | 0 | 20 | 96 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.0% | 5.49 | 3.25 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 38 | 0 | 35 | 178 | 41 | 32 | 5 | 22.0% | 18.4% | 3.1% | 7.39 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 67 | 1 | 69 | 296 | 99 | 31 | 7 | 31.3% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 3.28 | 3.03 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 80 | 0 | 74 | 301 | 75 | 29 | 7 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 2.44 | 3.43 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 30 | 0 | 26 | 117 | 25 | 13 | 9 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 5.88 | 6.93 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 58 | 252 | 60 | 27 | 14 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 4.92 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 58 | 24 | 9 | 25.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 53 | 23 | 9 | 24.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 47 | 22 | 8 | 23.9% | 11.3% | 4.3% | 5.08 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 42 | 21 | 8 | 23.1% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 5.34 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 37 | 20 | 8 | 22.2% | 12.3% | 4.8% | 5.63 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 31 | 19 | 8 | 21.2% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 5.95 | 6.16 | -0.7 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 6.30 | 6.53 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 370 | 104 | 773 | 3344 | 701 | 385 | 86 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 4.20 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 27 | 200 | 865 | 181 | 100 | 22 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tony Santillan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.83 | 28.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.98 | 24.7% | 13.8% | 152 | +1.15 | — | — | — |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 81 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.99 | 29.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .291 | 4.74 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 117 | +0.75 | 2.67 | 382 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.97 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.84 | 22.8% | 15.1% | 140 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 318 | 77 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 76 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.22 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .281 | 7.59 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 75 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.10 | 29.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .289 | 3.29 | 28.4% | 20.1% | 183 | -0.81 | 2.25 | 317 | 74 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.59 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.15 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.44 | 2.04 | 269 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 74 |
| JT Chargois R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 3.61 | 23.1% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.07 | 2.59 | 362 | 74 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 73 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 73 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 73 |
| Kirby Yates R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.10 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .310 | 2.27 | 38.5% | 32.2% | 180 | -0.83 | 0.70 | 459 | 73 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 73 |
| John Axford R 2029 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 73 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.02 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | .307 | 3.42 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 116 | -0.60 | 2.28 | 279 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.