Bailey Falter

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 30 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	29	29	145	4.46	4.17	16.6%	7.5%	2.1	K 16.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.39
2025	28	MIX2 levels	28	26	128	4.37	4.85	16.1%	9.3%	0.8	K 15.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.08
2026	29	MIX2 levels	32	10	68	4.12	3.48	22.6%	9.3%	0.9	K 19.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.64
2027PROJ	30	MLBATL	13	13	77	4.83	4.92	16.6%	8.6%	0.4
2028PROJ	31	MLBATL	8	8	49	5.02	5.15	15.8%	8.9%	0.1
2029PROJ	32	MLBATL	5	5	31	5.25	5.41	15.0%	9.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo19

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsRoy Merritt (age 30) · Brian Johnson (age 30) · Tyler Anderson (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.83

FIP4.92

K%16.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP77

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p1011.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.386

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	8	7	29	114	25	3	2	88%	3.6	14.9%	3.3%	11.6%	2.5%	3.45	3.61	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	8	7	29	114	25	3	2	88%	3.6	21.9%	2.6%	19.3%	1.8%	3.45	2.58	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	21	21	114	473	105	23	7	100%	5.4	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	2.3%	2.99	3.68	—
2017	20	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	21	21	114	473	105	23	7	100%	5.4	22.2%	4.9%	17.3%	1.5%	2.99	2.66	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	102	409	96	15	7	100%	5.4	17.0%	4.6%	12.4%	1.7%	2.74	3.16	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	102	409	96	15	7	100%	5.4	23.5%	3.7%	19.8%	1.7%	2.74	2.55	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	14	77	319	62	15	9	100%	5.5	15.7%	5.2%	10.6%	2.9%	3.84	4.00	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	14	14	77	319	62	15	9	100%	5.5	19.4%	4.7%	14.7%	2.8%	3.84	3.59	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	7	64	259	78	14	8	23%	2.1	28.1%	5.6%	22.5%	3.1%	3.78	3.15	+1.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	7	64	259	78	14	8	23%	2.1	30.1%	5.4%	24.7%	3.1%	3.78	2.94	+1.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	25	131	519	123	23	20	86%	4.5	22.6%	4.5%	18.1%	3.7%	3.16	3.79	+2.5
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	25	131	519	123	23	20	86%	4.5	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.9%	3.16	3.73	+2.6
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	26	131	559	97	43	24	87%	4.4	16.4%	7.3%	9.2%	4.7%	4.82	5.22	+0.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	26	131	559	97	43	24	87%	4.4	17.4%	7.7%	9.7%	4.3%	4.82	4.99	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.5%	7.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.39	+1.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.5%	7.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.39	+1.7
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.17	+2.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.0%	4.37	5.08	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.0%	4.37	5.08	+0.5
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	16.1%	9.3%	6.8%	3.6%	4.37	4.85	+0.8
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	10	68	301	68	28	6	31%	2.1	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.1%	4.12	3.64	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	10	68	301	68	28	6	31%	2.1	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	2.1%	4.12	3.64	+0.7
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	10	68	301	68	28	6	31%	2.1	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.0%	4.12	3.48	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	85	479	2011	354	140	78	70%	4.0	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	3.9%	4.73	4.62	+4.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	ATL	13	13	77	325	54	28	10	100%	5.9	16.6%	8.6%	8.0%	3.2%	4.83	4.92	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	49	205	32	18	7	100%	6.1	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.4%	5.02	5.15	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	ATL	5	5	31	131	20	12	5	100%	6.2	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	3.7%	5.25	5.41	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	49	207	33	18	7	100%	6.1	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.4%	5.02	5.15	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	31	131	20	12	5	100%	6.2	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	3.7%	5.25	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		134	98	559	2347	406	171	90	73%	4.2	17.3%	7.3%	10.0%	3.8%	4.79	4.66	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		48	35	200	840	145	61	32	73%	4.2	17.3%	7.3%	10.0%	3.8%	4.79	4.66	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		240	184	989	4084	738	263	129	77%	4.1	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	3.2%	3.83	4.13	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	826	149	53	26	77%	4.1	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	3.2%	3.83	4.13	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 55 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.82 (+0.23)K% 25.9% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.86%	—	×0.860	22.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.48%	—	×0.900	8.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 47 IPFIP 4.93 → 5.13 (+0.20)K% 17.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.41%	—	×0.860	14.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.95%	—	×0.900	9.85%
HR / BF /BF	3.48%	÷1.028	×1.100	3.73%

Result: FIP 4.93 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 47 IPFIP 2.40 → 2.80 (+0.39)K% 28.8% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.82%	—	×0.880	25.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.53%	—	×1.050	3.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.039	×1.100	2.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.40 → 2.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 31 IPFIP 2.22 → 2.84 (+0.62)K% 36.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.67%	—	×0.880	32.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.957	×1.100	2.87%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 77 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.00 (+0.39)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.44%	—	×0.810	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.70%	—	×1.100	5.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.182	×1.200	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Clearwater Threshers · 94 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.16 (+0.54)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.13%	—	×0.770	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.150	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.197	×1.250	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 139).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Phillies West · 8 IPFIP 1.49 → 3.16 (+1.68)K% 38.2% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.24%	—	×0.680	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ALakewood BlueClaws · 114 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.68 (+1.02)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.20%	—	×0.740	16.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.86%	—	×1.180	5.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷0.854	×1.300	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Falter (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.25	15.5%	6.4%	80	+0.33	—	—	—
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	62
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	59
Tyler Anderson L 2020 · 4.13 FIP	30	SP	4.13	15.8%	9.6%	2.1%	.280	3.91	19.2%	12.8%	487	-0.22	3.10	1,288	58
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	58
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	55
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	54
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	53
Eric Stults L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	14.8%	10.8%	1.4%	.294	4.00	13.3%	6.9%	111	+0.05	3.50	773	52
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	51
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	51
Logan Darnell L 2019 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP-	3.97	12.8%	6.1%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	454	50
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	50
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	50
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	50
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	49
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	49
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	49
J.A. Happ L 2013 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP	4.23	18.6%	10.8%	2.4%	.286	3.79	20.5%	13.5%	525	-0.44	3.37	1,890	48
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	48
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	79	17.2%	7.4%	1.45	4.79
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
Mark Grant ('84-'93, 0 WAR*)	3.2	91	18.0%*	8.5%*	1.41*	4.84*
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*
Bob Priddy ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.7	77	16.3%*	9.0%*	1.43*	4.80*
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82