Bailey Falter
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.90
FIP5.05
xFIP4.61
SIERA4.25
K%16.8%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%8.3%
IP123
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†3030
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p1018.1%
K%
p1015.6%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
CU (1%)
CT (22%)
FB-3.5 (60%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 8 | 7 | 29 | 114 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 14.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.45 | 3.61 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 21 | 21 | 114 | 473 | 105 | 23 | 7 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 2.99 | 3.62 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 19 | 19 | 102 | 409 | 96 | 15 | 7 | 17.0% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 2.74 | 3.14 | +2.5 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 14 | 77 | 319 | 62 | 15 | 9 | 15.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.98 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 30 | 7 | 64 | 259 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 28.1% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.78 | 3.20 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 29 | 25 | 131 | 519 | 123 | 23 | 20 | 22.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.16 | 3.86 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 30 | 26 | 131 | 559 | 97 | 43 | 24 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 4.82 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 29 | 29 | 145 | 602 | 100 | 45 | 17 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 26 | 128 | 529 | 85 | 49 | 19 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 4.37 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 14.54 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 35 | 19 | 8 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 58 | 255 | 40 | 22 | 9 | 15.6% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 5.67 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 104 | 437 | 66 | 38 | 16 | 15.1% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 5.29 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 57 | 34 | 15 | 14.5% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 5.30 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 49 | 31 | 13 | 13.9% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 5.43 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 47 | 26 | 12 | 15.2% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 5.39 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 40 | 23 | 11 | 14.5% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 5.46 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | KC | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 33 | 21 | 10 | 13.8% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 5.58 | 5.66 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | KC | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 27 | 19 | 9 | 13.0% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 5.73 | 5.82 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 211 | 174 | 925 | 3810 | 684 | 244 | 122 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 4.15 | +12.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 38 | 200 | 823 | 148 | 53 | 26 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 4.15 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bailey Falter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 3.5% | — | 5.39 | 14.5% | 5.8% | 280 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 53 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 52 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 52 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 51 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 51 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 50 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.67 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .354 | 3.79 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.88 | 3.79 | 137 | 50 |
| Matt Lujan L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 227 | 49 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 49 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.72 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.76 | 1.36 | 350 | 49 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 49 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.14 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 182 | 48 |
| Darin Gorski L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.49 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 206 | 48 |
| Brian Duensing L 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 48 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 47 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 185 | 47 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 46 |
| Travis Wood L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.56 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .211 | 5.71 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 94 | +1.15 | 3.08 | 256 | 46 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.16 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.36 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 66 | +1.20 | 4.02 | 269 | 46 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 46 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.