Bailey Falter — OGILVIE

Bailey Falter P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.53

FIP4.77

K%16.0%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p1018.7%

p1011.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.399

SI (2%)

CU (9%)

CT (25%)

FB-3.5 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	8	7	29	114	25	3	2	88%	3.6	14.9%	3.3%	11.6%	2.5%	3.45	3.61	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	8	7	29	114	25	3	2	88%	3.6	21.9%	2.6%	19.3%	1.8%	3.45	2.58	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	21	21	114	473	105	23	7	100%	5.4	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	2.3%	2.99	3.68	—
2017	20	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	21	21	114	473	105	23	7	100%	5.4	22.2%	4.9%	17.3%	1.5%	2.99	2.66	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	102	409	96	15	7	100%	5.4	17.0%	4.6%	12.4%	1.7%	2.74	3.16	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	102	409	96	15	7	100%	5.4	23.5%	3.7%	19.8%	1.7%	2.74	2.55	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	14	77	319	62	15	9	100%	5.5	15.7%	5.2%	10.6%	2.9%	3.84	4.00	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	14	14	77	319	62	15	9	100%	5.5	19.4%	4.7%	14.7%	2.8%	3.84	3.59	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	7	64	259	78	14	8	23%	2.1	28.1%	5.6%	22.5%	3.1%	3.78	3.15	+1.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	7	64	259	78	14	8	23%	2.1	30.1%	5.4%	24.7%	3.1%	3.78	2.94	+1.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	25	131	519	123	23	20	86%	4.5	22.6%	4.5%	18.1%	3.7%	3.16	3.79	+1.7
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	25	131	519	123	23	20	86%	4.5	23.7%	4.4%	19.3%	3.9%	3.16	3.73	+1.8
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	26	131	559	97	43	24	87%	4.4	16.2%	7.3%	9.0%	4.7%	4.82	5.24	-0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	26	131	559	97	43	24	87%	4.4	16.2%	7.3%	9.0%	4.7%	4.82	5.24	-0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	26	131	559	97	43	24	87%	4.4	17.4%	7.7%	9.7%	4.3%	4.82	4.99	-0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.5%	7.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.39	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.5%	7.6%	8.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.39	+0.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	145	602	100	45	17	100%	5.0	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.17	+1.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.0%	4.37	5.08	-0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	4.0%	4.37	5.08	-0.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	128	529	85	49	19	93%	4.6	16.1%	9.3%	6.8%	3.6%	4.37	4.85	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	85	478	2005	353	140	78	71%	4.0	17.6%	7.0%	10.6%	3.9%	4.75	4.62	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	10	65	291	64	28	6	33%	2.2	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	2.1%	4.27	3.82	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	10	65	291	64	28	6	33%	2.2	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	2.1%	4.27	3.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	ATL	24	8	54	228	57	22	2	33%	2.2	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	0.9%	2.68	2.69	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	ATL	6	2	12	63	7	6	4	33%	1.9	11.1%	9.5%	1.6%	6.3%	11.57	6.85	-0.3
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	ATL	6	2	12	63	7	6	4	33%	1.9	11.1%	9.5%	1.6%	6.3%	11.57	6.85	-0.3
ROS	29	MLB MLE	ATL	10	0	10	44	7	4	2	0%	1.0	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	3.6%	4.53	4.77	-0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	ATL	10	0	10	42	7	4	2	0%	1.0	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	3.6%	4.53	4.77	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	76	335	71	32	8	—	—	21.2%	9.5%	11.8%	2.3%	4.31	3.95	+0.7
FULL	29	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	22	93	71	32	8	—	—	76.3%	34.0%	42.2%	8.1%	14.78	5.43	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	116	490	68	43	20	100%	6.1	14.0%	8.8%	5.2%	4.1%	5.50	5.68	-1.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	108	457	60	42	20	100%	6.0	13.2%	9.2%	4.0%	4.3%	5.75	5.91	-1.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	116	490	68	43	20	100%	6.1	14.0%	8.8%	5.2%	4.1%	5.50	5.68	-1.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	108	456	60	42	20	100%	6.0	13.2%	9.2%	4.0%	4.3%	5.75	5.91	-1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	122	712	2996	489	229	120	73%	4.3	16.3%	7.6%	8.7%	4.0%	5.02	4.88	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	34	200	841	137	64	34	73%	4.3	16.3%	7.6%	8.7%	4.0%	5.02	4.88	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		238	184	986	4074	731	263	129	77%	4.1	18.0%	6.5%	11.5%	3.2%	3.84	4.14	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	37	200	826	148	53	26	77%	4.1	18.0%	6.5%	11.5%	3.2%	3.84	4.14	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Falter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	15.4%	8.3%	3.6%	—	5.79	13.6%	4.6%	224	+0.57	—	—	—
Jonathon Niese L 2016 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP-	5.28	16.1%	8.1%	4.6%	.308	5.67	10.9%	2.7%	70	+0.39	4.16	368	64
Drew Pomeranz L 2018 · 5.58 FIP	29	SP-	5.58	17.9%	13.2%	4.2%	.305	3.70	31.2%	21.1%	148	-1.88	2.21	751	62
Héctor Santiago L 2017 · 5.65 FIP	29	SP	5.65	17.3%	11.6%	4.6%	.259	4.85	21.3%	9.6%	216	-0.80	4.32	713	60
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	56
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	56
Danny Duffy L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	29	SP	4.61	20.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	4.35	22.6%	14.1%	248	-0.26	3.29	915	55
Cole Irvin L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	29	SP-	4.34	17.0%	5.3%	3.6%	.282	4.17	13.6%	6.5%	240	-0.17	3.37	1,174	54
Andrew Albers L 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	12.4%	7.2%	2.1%	.354	3.51	17.9%	12.6%	303	-0.62	2.98	508	53
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	53
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	53
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	53
Brett Anderson L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	13.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.357	4.08	14.2%	8.8%	336	-0.08	3.49	706	52
Drew Smyly L 2019 · 5.49 FIP	30	SP	5.49	24.1%	10.3%	5.7%	.305	4.30	22.7%	16.0%	259	-1.19	2.00	840	52
Brett Oberholtzer L 2018 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	13.6%	7.3%	4.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	442	52
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	52
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	51
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	51
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	50
Michael Roth L 2018 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	12.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	483	50
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	116	14.2%	8.7%	1.55	5.39
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10