Bailey Falter
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 114 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.50
FIP4.73
K%16.0%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP114
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (2%)
CU (9%)
CT (23%)
FB-3.5 (58%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 8 | 7 | 29 | 114 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 88% | 3.6 | 14.9% | 3.3% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 3.45 | 3.61 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 8 | 7 | 29 | 114 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 88% | 3.6 | 21.9% | 2.6% | 19.3% | 1.8% | 3.45 | 2.58 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 21 | 21 | 114 | 473 | 105 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 2.99 | 3.93 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 21 | 21 | 114 | 473 | 105 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.2% | 4.9% | 17.3% | 1.5% | 2.99 | 2.66 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 102 | 409 | 96 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.0% | 4.6% | 12.4% | 1.4% | 2.74 | 3.03 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 102 | 409 | 96 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.5% | 3.7% | 19.8% | 1.7% | 2.74 | 2.55 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 14 | 77 | 319 | 62 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.7% | 5.2% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 3.84 | 3.79 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 14 | 14 | 77 | 319 | 62 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 4.7% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.59 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 7 | 64 | 259 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 23% | 2.1 | 28.1% | 5.6% | 22.5% | 3.3% | 3.78 | 3.22 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 7 | 64 | 259 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 23% | 2.1 | 30.1% | 5.4% | 24.7% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 2.94 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 25 | 131 | 519 | 123 | 23 | 20 | 86% | 4.5 | 22.6% | 4.5% | 18.1% | 3.8% | 3.16 | 3.83 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 25 | 131 | 519 | 123 | 23 | 20 | 86% | 4.5 | 23.7% | 4.4% | 19.3% | 3.9% | 3.16 | 3.73 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 26 | 131 | 559 | 97 | 43 | 24 | 87% | 4.4 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 4.82 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 26 | 131 | 559 | 97 | 43 | 24 | 87% | 4.4 | 17.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 145 | 602 | 100 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.28 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 145 | 602 | 100 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.6% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.17 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 128 | 529 | 85 | 49 | 19 | 93% | 4.6 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 4.37 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 128 | 529 | 85 | 49 | 19 | 93% | 4.6 | 16.1% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 4.37 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 20 | 7 | 44 | 207 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 35% | 2.2 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 6.18 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 108 | 0 | 114 | 480 | 77 | 41 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 109 | 0 | 114 | 481 | 77 | 41 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 157 | 687 | 121 | 59 | 23 | — | — | 17.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 4.60 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 123 | 521 | 121 | 59 | 23 | — | — | 23.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 4.4% | 6.34 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 68 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.51 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 108 | 457 | 60 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.2% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.75 | 5.91 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 100 | 423 | 52 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 12.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.00 | 6.17 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 68 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.51 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 60 | 42 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.2% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.75 | 5.91 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 52 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 12.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.00 | 6.17 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 281 | 139 | 914 | 3848 | 610 | 308 | 154 | 49% | 3.3 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 4.97 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 30 | 200 | 842 | 134 | 67 | 34 | 49% | 3.2 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 228 | 181 | 965 | 3990 | 718 | 259 | 127 | 79% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 3.92 | 4.15 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 38 | 200 | 827 | 149 | 54 | 26 | 79% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 3.92 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bailey Falter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | — | 5.91 | 13.2% | 3.9% | 324 | +0.73 | — | — | — |
| Yohan Flande L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.45 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.24 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.21 | 3.16 | 335 | 56 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 56 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.16 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | .345 | 5.04 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | -0.12 | 5.04 | 175 | 54 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.17 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .354 | 3.55 | 17.9% | 12.6% | 303 | -0.62 | 3.01 | 508 | 54 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.14 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .297 | 4.77 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.37 | 3.72 | 333 | 53 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 52 |
| Nico Tellache L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 52 |
| John Anderson L 2024 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 52 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | .308 | 5.56 | 10.9% | 2.7% | 70 | +0.27 | 4.17 | 368 | 52 |
| Kyle Hald L 2023 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.17 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 124 | 51 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 51 |
| Michael Roth L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.86 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 483 | 51 |
| Matt Crouse L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.40 | 12.0% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 342 | 49 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 147 | 49 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 13.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.97 | 12.8% | 6.7% | 47 | -0.91 | 3.18 | 430 | 49 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 49 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.16 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .367 | 4.34 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | +0.18 | 3.97 | 280 | 49 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.29 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 116 | 48 |
| Matt Lujan L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.13 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 227 | 48 |
| Amilcar Gaxiola L 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.37 | 11.8% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 321 | 48 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 112 | 13.8% | 9.1% | 1.59 | 5.52 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Chi Chi González ('22) | 4 | 64 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 1.41 | 5.44 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |