Jason Bilous prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jason Bilous P Columbus Clippers

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%21.4%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	14	14	37	173	31	24	2	100%	2.6	12.2%	17.3%	-5.2%	1.6%	7.85	5.16	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	14	14	37	173	31	24	2	100%	2.6	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	1.2%	7.85	4.08	—
2019	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	31	17	105	461	113	60	12	55%	3.4	18.1%	15.4%	2.8%	4.0%	3.70	5.70	—
2019	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	31	17	105	461	113	60	12	55%	3.4	24.5%	13.0%	11.5%	2.6%	3.70	4.15	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	80	351	106	32	8	100%	4.0	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	2.5%	5.76	3.71	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	80	351	106	32	8	100%	4.0	30.2%	9.1%	21.1%	2.3%	5.76	2.95	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	21	106	502	131	79	14	68%	3.4	21.5%	17.1%	4.4%	2.9%	6.30	5.03	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	21	106	502	131	79	14	68%	3.4	26.1%	15.7%	10.4%	2.8%	6.30	4.59	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	38	2	49	246	56	52	7	5%	1.3	19.6%	19.0%	0.6%	3.0%	5.92	5.51	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	38	2	49	246	56	52	7	5%	1.3	19.6%	19.0%	0.6%	3.0%	5.92	5.51	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	38	2	49	246	56	52	7	5%	1.3	22.8%	21.1%	1.6%	2.8%	5.92	5.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	13.8%	7.6%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CLE	5	5	27	116	25	16	4	100%	5.5	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.07	5.12	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	10	42	9	6	1	100%	5.0	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.07	5.12	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	43	9	6	1	100%	5.0	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.07	4.74	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	119	20	100%	6.0	21.3%	13.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.07	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		134	74	375	1733	346	269	52	55%	2.8	19.9%	15.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.56	5.02	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	39	200	923	184	143	28	55%	2.8	19.9%	15.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.56	5.02	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Bilous (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	21.4%	13.8%	3.0%	—	5.12	21.3%	7.8%	27	+0.05	—	—	—
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	74
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	71
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	69
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	69
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	69
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	68
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	68
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	67
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	67
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	67
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	65
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	65
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	65
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	65
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	65
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	65
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	64
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	64
Chi Chi González R 2020 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	17.6%	11.0%	2.9%	.306	4.84	13.6%	7.1%	327	+0.23	4.01	800	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.3%	13.6%	1.19	5.07
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76