Davis Martin

P Chicago White Sox

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX4 levels	18	17	71	4.06	3.35	23.5%	9.2%	1.3	K 21.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.85
2025	28	MIX2 levels	28	27	148	4.13	4.35	17.4%	7.7%	0.9	K 17.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.42
2026	29	MIX2 levels	30	29	151	3.81	3.56	20.1%	7.4%	2.5	K 19.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.60
2027PROJ	30	MLBCWS	22	22	131	4.29	4.32	19.2%	7.7%	0.9
2028PROJ	31	MLBCWS	20	20	122	4.48	4.58	18.5%	8.1%	0.5
2029PROJ	32	MLBCWS	19	19	113	4.70	4.84	17.7%	8.5%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.680First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo41

Whiff%37

K%34

xwOBA vs34

CompsMiguel González (age 30) · Rolando Arrojo (age 32) · Chase Anderson (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.29

FIP4.32

K%19.2%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5560

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

FB+3.4 (46%)

CH+1.6 (14%)

SL+0.5 (13%)

SI (19%)

CU (14%)

CT-2.5 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 1.680 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	9	2	21	92	22	6	1	22%	2.3	16.3%	8.2%	8.1%	1.5%	4.29	3.59	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	9	2	21	92	22	6	1	22%	2.3	23.9%	6.5%	17.4%	1.1%	4.29	2.48	—
2019	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	27	27	145	625	156	38	17	100%	5.4	18.5%	7.2%	11.3%	4.2%	5.04	4.74	—
2019	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	27	27	145	625	156	38	17	100%	5.4	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.7%	5.04	3.26	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	390	98	34	11	100%	3.8	19.6%	9.9%	9.6%	3.6%	4.91	4.67	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	88	390	98	34	11	100%	3.8	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.8%	4.91	3.66	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	27	140	604	147	43	23	84%	4.4	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.5%	5.00	4.08	+1.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	27	140	604	147	43	23	84%	4.4	24.3%	7.1%	17.2%	3.8%	5.00	4.05	+1.4
2023	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	3	3	16	64	20	7	2	100%	5.3	26.9%	9.8%	17.0%	3.0%	2.81	3.71	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	3	3	16	64	20	7	2	100%	5.3	31.2%	10.9%	20.3%	3.1%	2.81	3.54	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	2.2%	4.06	3.85	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	2.2%	4.06	3.85	+0.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	23.5%	9.2%	14.4%	2.0%	4.06	3.35	+1.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.13	4.42	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.13	4.42	+0.8
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.4%	7.7%	9.8%	3.2%	4.13	4.35	+0.9
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	151	633	127	47	14	97%	5.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.3%	2.2%	3.81	3.60	+2.4
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	151	633	127	47	14	97%	5.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.3%	2.2%	3.81	3.60	+2.4
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	151	633	127	47	14	97%	5.0	20.1%	7.4%	12.6%	2.2%	3.81	3.56	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			80	72	402	1707	321	134	47	90%	5.0	18.8%	7.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.02	+4.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CWS	22	22	131	553	106	43	15	100%	6.0	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.29	4.32	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	122	517	95	42	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.55	+0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	113	478	84	41	15	100%	6.0	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.2%	4.67	4.81	+0.1
2030	33	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	104	439	74	39	15	100%	6.1	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	3.5%	4.92	5.09	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	122	515	95	42	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.58	+0.5
2029	32	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	113	477	84	41	15	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.2%	4.70	4.84	+0.1
2030	33	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	104	439	74	39	15	100%	6.1	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	3.5%	4.95	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	129	742	3140	575	256	93	94%	5.4	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.42	4.22	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	847	155	69	25	94%	5.4	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.42	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		170	155	780	3339	655	270	106	91%	4.6	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.20	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	856	168	69	27	91%	4.6	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.20	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	19.2%	7.7%	2.7%	—	4.80	17.7%	9.2%	340	+0.48	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2014 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	16.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.268	4.26	16.6%	9.5%	457	-0.23	3.72	905	71
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	69
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,260	68
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	3.76	822	66
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	2,006	64
Adrian Sampson R 2022 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	16.1%	6.2%	3.1%	.278	4.88	14.4%	7.0%	244	+0.66	3.23	1,012	61
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.33	11.2%	5.6%	122	+1.03	4.01	800	60
Christian Bergman R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	15.7%	6.3%	3.3%	.327	7.36	13.2%	6.6%	26	+2.99	3.99	521	60
Cory Lidle R 2002 · 3.67 FIP	30	SP	3.67	13.9%	4.5%	2.1%	.275	4.13	14.1%	8.3%	589	+0.46	3.48	1,318	60
Jeremy Guthrie R 2009 · 5.09 FIP	30	SP	5.09	12.6%	6.8%	4.0%	.282	4.41	13.7%	7.5%	599	-0.68	4.08	1,834	59
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	58
Robert Person R 2000 · 3.80 FIP	30	SP	3.80	22.1%	12.7%	1.8%	.278	4.75	19.5%	9.1%	308	+0.95	3.41	885	58
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	58
Rodrigo Lopez R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	16.1%	6.7%	3.8%	.325	4.30	13.2%	7.9%	109	-0.37	4.06	1,344	58
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	57
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	57
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	2.92	1,596	57
Mike Fiers R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SP	3.86	23.7%	7.8%	3.2%	.277	4.73	19.9%	13.3%	494	+0.87	2.83	1,140	57
Chris Holt R 2001 · 4.50 FIP	29	SP-	4.50	11.5%	7.5%	2.6%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	732	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	109	18.4%	8.1%	1.13	4.39
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Red Oldham ('14-'26, 3 WAR*)	4.3	122	17.9%*	8.2%*	1.15*	4.57*
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*
Red Embree ('41-'49, 5 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.9%*	9.1%*	1.32*	4.29*
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	2.6	74	21.5%	8.0%	1.09	4.41