Beau Burrows — OGILVIE

Beau Burrows P Indianapolis Indians

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 223 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%19.7%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4550

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p1017.7%

p1013.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.476

CH-2.1

FB-2.6

SL-6.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	10	9	28	111	33	11	0	90%	2.8	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	0.0%	1.61	2.96	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers	10	9	28	111	33	11	0	90%	2.8	29.7%	9.9%	19.8%	0.0%	1.61	1.92	—
2016	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	20	97	405	67	30	2	95%	4.6	12.2%	8.7%	3.5%	0.8%	3.15	3.63	—
2016	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	20	97	405	67	30	2	95%	4.6	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	0.5%	3.15	2.91	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	135	551	137	44	8	100%	5.2	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	1.3%	3.20	3.25	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	135	551	137	44	8	100%	5.2	24.9%	8.0%	16.9%	1.5%	3.20	2.82	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	26	134	571	127	56	12	100%	5.2	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	2.3%	4.10	4.19	—
2018	21	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	26	26	134	571	127	56	12	100%	5.2	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	2.1%	4.10	3.62	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	74	327	69	36	12	100%	4.4	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	5.0%	4.84	5.77	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	74	327	69	36	12	100%	4.4	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.7%	4.84	4.80	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	5	0	7	30	3	1	3	0%	1.3	10.0%	3.3%	6.7%	10.0%	5.40	8.17	-0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	5	0	7	30	3	1	3	0%	1.3	10.0%	3.3%	6.7%	10.0%	5.40	8.50	-0.3
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	11	76	347	73	38	19	39%	2.7	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	5.4%	6.37	5.91	-1.2
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	11	76	347	73	38	19	39%	2.7	21.0%	11.0%	10.1%	5.5%	6.37	5.92	-1.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	31	16	100	474	95	60	18	52%	3.2	17.6%	13.3%	4.3%	4.2%	7.18	5.59	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	31	16	100	474	95	60	18	52%	3.2	20.0%	12.7%	7.4%	3.8%	7.18	5.33	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	11	76	339	76	36	13	30%	2.1	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	4.5%	5.42	5.23	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	11	76	339	76	36	13	30%	2.1	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	4.5%	5.42	5.23	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	11	76	339	76	36	13	30%	2.1	22.4%	10.6%	11.8%	3.8%	5.42	4.74	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	22	107	21	22	4	0%	1.4	13.2%	23.5%	-10.2%	1.6%	6.45	5.84	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	22	107	21	22	4	0%	1.4	13.2%	23.5%	-10.2%	1.6%	6.45	5.84	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	22	107	21	22	4	0%	1.4	19.6%	20.6%	-0.9%	3.7%	6.45	6.50	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	49	192	49	16	7	3%	1.3	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	4.5%	2.94	4.82	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	49	192	49	16	7	3%	1.3	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	4.5%	2.94	4.82	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	1	49	192	49	16	7	3%	1.3	25.5%	8.3%	17.2%	3.6%	2.94	3.94	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	1	18	88	11	11	8	9%	1.6	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	9.1%	10.70	9.61	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	49	2	62	256	60	27	9	4%	1.3	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	3.9%	3.03	4.78	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	49	2	62	256	60	27	9	4%	1.3	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	3.9%	3.03	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	PIT	49	2	62	256	60	27	9	4%	1.3	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	3.5%	3.03	4.39	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.5%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	68	281	65	29	10	—	—	23.1%	10.5%	12.6%	3.5%	3.20	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PIT	139	0	146	615	118	62	22	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.6%	5.04	5.12	-0.9
2028	31	MLB MLE	PIT	129	0	136	574	107	58	22	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.2%	8.5%	3.8%	5.16	5.29	-1.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	PIT	51	0	54	228	44	23	8	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.6%	5.04	5.12	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	PIT	71	0	75	317	59	32	12	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.2%	8.5%	3.8%	5.16	5.29	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		134	1	147	633	114	66	28	1%	1.1	18.0%	10.4%	7.6%	4.5%	5.78	5.36	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	1	200	863	155	90	38	1%	1.1	18.0%	10.4%	7.6%	4.5%	5.78	5.36	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		303	139	862	3710	660	397	117	46%	2.8	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.1%	4.44	4.68	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	32	200	861	153	92	27	46%	2.8	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.1%	4.44	4.68	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beau Burrows (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	19.7%	9.9%	3.5%	—	5.20	18.9%	8.9%	282	+0.21	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	81
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	73
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	71
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	68
Joel De La Cruz R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	14.4%	8.6%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	205	67
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	66
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	248	65
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	65
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	64
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	64
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	63
Casey Lawrence R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	6.1%	3.8%	.307	3.77	18.1%	13.7%	121	-0.72	3.57	1,365	63
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	63
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	63
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	63
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.98	17.8%	11.2%	254	+0.07	3.52	390	62
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	62
Warwick Saupold R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	13.7%	7.6%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	389	62
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	61
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	146	19.2%	10.0%	1.41	5.06
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12