Justin Maese
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%23.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 8 | 4 | 36 | 143 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 4.5 | 9.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 1.01 | 3.00 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 8 | 4 | 36 | 143 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 4.5 | 13.3% | 4.2% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 1.01 | 2.54 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 3.36 | 3.47 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 14 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.6% | 5.9% | 12.7% | 0.8% | 3.36 | 2.74 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 80 | 350 | 69 | 27 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 4.86 | 4.02 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 80 | 350 | 69 | 27 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 1.1% | 4.86 | 3.04 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 7.20 | 2.75 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 3 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 7.20 | 2.70 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 33 | 0 | 53 | 244 | 63 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.59 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 33 | 0 | 53 | 244 | 63 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.8% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 1.6% | 4.75 | 3.40 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 50 | 0 | 54 | 246 | 69 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 4.70 | 4.57 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 50 | 0 | 54 | 246 | 69 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 8.5% | 19.5% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 3.40 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 14 | 0 | 23 | 109 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.04 | 6.09 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 14 | 0 | 23 | 109 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.9% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 4.6% | 7.04 | 5.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.18 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 133 | 30 | 306 | 1352 | 225 | 134 | 30 | 23% | 2.3 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 4.16 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 20 | 200 | 883 | 147 | 87 | 20 | 23% | 2.3 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Maese (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.56 | 22.9% | 13.1% | 20 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 78 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 74 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 73 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 73 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 72 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 71 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 71 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 71 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 70 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 70 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 70 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 70 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 70 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 69 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 69 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 69 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 69 |