Nick Hernandez — OGILVIE

Nick Hernandez P Las Vegas Aviators

+0.5 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 212 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.64

FIP4.36

xFIP6.36

SIERA5.39

K%26.2%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%15.0%

IP52

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD6565

K†6565

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB+1.5 (43%)

SL-4.2 (46%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	32	7	4	0	—	—	—	1.35	—	—
2017	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	38	0	59	238	70	24	8	23.0%	11.3%	4.0%	3.37	4.76	+0.1
2019	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	0	31	139	37	16	2	18.9%	13.4%	2.1%	4.02	4.34	+0.2
2021	26	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	33	1	56	227	69	30	5	25.3%	13.6%	2.6%	1.61	4.11	+0.5
2022	27	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	51	0	64	260	85	30	8	27.5%	12.4%	3.9%	3.66	4.50	+0.3
2023	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	49	0	64	269	87	25	5	27.5%	8.9%	1.8%	4.22	2.91	+1.5
2024	29	MLB	Houston Astros	48	0	60	249	80	24	7	28.7%	11.2%	1.7%	3.13	3.05	+1.3
2025	30	MLB	Houston Astros	56	0	57	239	74	29	8	27.8%	12.6%	3.7%	2.67	4.37	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	3	0	4	23	6	3	0	—	—	—	10.38	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	OAK	52	—	52	221	62	23	7	27.9%	10.2%	3.1%	4.39	4.11	+0.5
2026 Total	31	MLB	OAK	—	—	57	244	68	26	7	27.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.85	3.80	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	OAK	50	—	50	212	57	22	7	26.8%	10.3%	3.1%	4.31	4.24	+0.4
2028	33	MLB	OAK	48	—	48	202	52	21	7	25.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.38	+0.3
2029	34	MLB	OAK	46	—	46	192	48	20	6	25.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.44	4.51	+0.2
2030	35	MLB	OAK	43	—	43	181	44	19	6	24.3%	10.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.66	+0.1
2031	36	MLB	OAK	40	—	40	169	40	19	6	23.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			305	1	403	1676	435	198	46	26.0%	11.8%	2.8%	3.26	3.92	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—			151	0	200	832	216	98	23	26.0%	11.8%	2.8%	3.26	3.92	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	27.9%	10.2%	3.1%	—	4.37	25.9%	15.5%	144	+0.26	—	—	—
Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	31	SW	3.52	27.5%	9.2%	2.9%	.282	3.95	28.0%	19.4%	191	+0.43	2.52	417	80
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	77
Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	31	SW	3.18	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.64	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.46	2.41	339	76
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	75
Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	74
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	74
Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.03 FIP	33	SU	3.03	27.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.305	5.07	21.4%	9.7%	88	+2.04	2.83	239	74
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	74
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	73
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	73
Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	31	SW	3.67	22.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.259	4.50	19.0%	15.9%	74	+0.83	3.67	135	73
David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	28.1%	10.5%	2.3%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.91	2.00	494	72
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	31	SU	4.83	23.8%	9.4%	4.6%	.283	4.53	22.0%	13.8%	96	-0.30	2.93	176	72
Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	31	SW	3.37	29.8%	10.6%	2.6%	.248	3.45	25.2%	13.1%	110	+0.08	1.94	268	72
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SW	3.00	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.13	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.13	2.73	316	72
Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP	31	SW	3.07	32.6%	11.2%	2.4%	.254	3.96	26.1%	14.5%	108	+0.89	2.00	320	72
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	31	SW	4.09	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.53	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	403	71
Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	31	SW	3.10	25.3%	11.8%	1.2%	.259	4.07	19.4%	8.8%	80	+0.97	3.10	256	70
Chaz Roe R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	31	SW	3.68	26.1%	7.4%	3.4%	.225	3.05	28.4%	15.7%	51	-0.63	1.71	257	70
Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP	32	SW	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.18	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.27	2.48	147	70

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.