Nick Hernandez — OGILVIE

Nick Hernandez P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 212 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

K%27.9%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%18.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB+1.5 (43%)

SL-4.2 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	32	7	4	0	0%	1.7	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	1.35	2.84	—
2016	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	32	7	4	0	0%	1.7	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	1.35	2.80	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	59	238	70	24	8	0%	1.5	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.9%	3.37	4.74	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	59	238	70	24	8	0%	1.5	29.4%	10.1%	19.3%	3.4%	3.37	3.71	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	31	139	37	16	2	0%	1.4	18.9%	13.4%	5.6%	2.1%	4.02	4.35	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	31	139	37	16	2	0%	1.4	26.6%	11.5%	15.1%	1.4%	4.02	3.10	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	56	227	69	30	5	3%	1.7	25.3%	13.6%	11.6%	2.6%	1.61	4.10	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	56	227	69	30	5	3%	1.7	30.4%	13.2%	17.2%	2.2%	1.61	3.40	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	260	85	30	8	0%	1.3	27.5%	12.4%	15.2%	3.9%	3.66	4.48	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	64	260	85	30	8	0%	1.3	32.7%	11.5%	21.2%	3.1%	3.66	3.48	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	64	269	87	25	5	0%	1.3	26.8%	8.2%	18.6%	1.8%	4.22	2.88	+1.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	64	269	87	25	5	0%	1.3	26.8%	8.2%	18.6%	1.8%	4.22	2.88	+1.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	64	269	87	25	5	0%	1.3	32.3%	9.3%	23.0%	1.9%	4.22	2.57	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	60	249	80	24	7	0%	1.3	27.0%	9.6%	17.4%	1.7%	3.13	2.97	+1.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	60	249	80	24	7	0%	1.3	27.0%	9.6%	17.4%	1.7%	3.13	2.97	+1.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	60	249	80	24	7	0%	1.3	32.1%	9.6%	22.5%	2.8%	3.13	3.15	+1.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	57	239	74	29	8	0%	1.0	26.5%	11.3%	15.2%	3.7%	2.67	4.31	+0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	57	239	74	29	8	0%	1.0	26.5%	11.3%	15.2%	3.7%	2.67	4.31	+0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	57	239	74	29	8	0%	1.0	31.0%	12.1%	18.8%	3.3%	2.67	3.85	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	0	22	104	26	13	8	0%	1.3	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	7.7%	7.06	7.30	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	34	0	55	267	54	33	9	0%	1.6	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.7%	7.85	5.13	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	34	0	55	267	54	33	9	0%	1.6	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.7%	7.85	5.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	OAK	34	0	55	267	54	33	9	0%	1.6	20.2%	12.4%	7.9%	3.4%	7.85	4.81	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	5	23	6	2	1	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.6%	18.3%	3.1%	4.03	4.03	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	60	290	60	35	10	—	—	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	3.3%	7.52	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	OAK	56	0	59	247	66	25	8	0%	1.0	26.6%	10.0%	16.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.31	+0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	OAK	51	0	54	227	58	23	8	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	3.6%	4.44	4.59	-0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	OAK	21	0	22	93	25	9	3	0%	1.0	26.6%	10.0%	16.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.31	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	OAK	29	0	30	127	32	13	5	0%	1.0	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	3.6%	4.44	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	73	322	83	35	16	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.9%	14.8%	4.8%	5.14	4.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	0	200	879	226	95	44	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.9%	14.8%	4.8%	5.14	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		336	1	453	1920	464	215	56	0%	1.3	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.9%	3.75	4.08	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	0	200	847	205	95	25	0%	1.3	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.9%	3.75	4.08	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	27.9%	9.6%	3.1%	—	4.44	26.1%	16.0%	112	+0.41	—	—	—
Tyler Clippard R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	27.5%	9.2%	3.6%	.282	3.98	28.0%	19.4%	191	+0.08	2.49	417	79
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	77
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	76
Blake Parker R 2016 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.73	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.52	2.52	339	76
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	76
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	74
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	74
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	74
Rafael Martín R 2015 · 2.94 FIP	31	SU	2.94	30.5%	7.1%	2.8%	.285	3.99	20.4%	12.9%	112	+1.05	2.94	227	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	73
Carlos Villanueva R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	22.0%	7.6%	2.6%	.259	4.73	19.0%	15.9%	74	+1.11	3.62	135	73
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	73
Tommy Hunter R 2017 · 2.99 FIP	31	SU	2.99	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.16	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.17	2.78	316	72
Greg Holland R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	31	SU	3.38	29.8%	10.6%	2.6%	.248	3.47	25.2%	13.1%	110	+0.09	1.97	268	71
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	71
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	71
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	71
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	71
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	26.7%	9.9%	1.28	4.22
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84