Nick Hernandez
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 212 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94
ERA4.06
FIP4.08
K%29.1%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%18.3%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p8631.0%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p200.347
FB+1.5 (43%)
SL-4.2 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 4 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.84 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 4 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.80 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 70 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 3.37 | 4.68 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 70 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.4% | 10.1% | 19.3% | 3.4% | 3.37 | 3.71 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 31 | 139 | 37 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 4.02 | 4.28 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 31 | 139 | 37 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.6% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 1.4% | 4.02 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 56 | 227 | 69 | 30 | 5 | 3% | 1.7 | 25.3% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 1.61 | 4.01 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 56 | 227 | 69 | 30 | 5 | 3% | 1.7 | 30.4% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 2.2% | 1.61 | 3.40 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 64 | 260 | 85 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 3.66 | 4.70 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 64 | 260 | 85 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.7% | 11.5% | 21.2% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 87 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 8.9% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 2.97 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 87 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.3% | 9.3% | 23.0% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 2.57 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 80 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.7% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 1.9% | 3.13 | 3.15 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 80 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.1% | 9.6% | 22.5% | 2.8% | 3.13 | 3.15 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 74 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 2.67 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 74 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.0% | 12.1% | 18.8% | 3.3% | 2.67 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 23 | 0 | 37 | 183 | 41 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.7% | 13.8% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 8.27 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | OAK | 60 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 78 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | OAK | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 4.08 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 100 | 451 | 119 | 53 | 12 | — | — | 26.4% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 5.61 | 4.23 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 6 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 29.1% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 3.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 69 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 11.1% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 60 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 3.6% | 4.48 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 11.1% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 3.6% | 4.48 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 79 | 347 | 92 | 40 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 4.7% | 5.09 | 4.90 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 0 | 200 | 876 | 232 | 101 | 40 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 4.7% | 5.09 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 325 | 1 | 435 | 1836 | 465 | 220 | 52 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 3.62 | 4.02 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 214 | 101 | 24 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 3.62 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.08 | 29.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.49 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 112 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 27.5% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.93 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 191 | +0.04 | 2.49 | 417 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 76 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 74 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 73 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 32.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.71 | 26.1% | 14.5% | 108 | +0.63 | 2.00 | 320 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 73 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 72 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 72 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.25 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .297 | 2.38 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.87 | 1.99 | 494 | 72 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.19 | 29.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .248 | 3.41 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 110 | +0.22 | 1.97 | 268 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 71 |
| Leonel Campos R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 71 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .257 | 3.20 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 89 | +0.16 | 2.82 | 316 | 70 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 70 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.29 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .345 | 2.81 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.48 | 2.23 | 367 | 70 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 1.28 | 4.25 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |