Luis Amaya prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Amaya P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%21.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	16	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	20	0	46	192	50	22	1	0%	2.3	17.7%	14.3%	3.4%	0.7%	1.77	3.82	—
2015	16	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	20	0	46	192	50	22	1	0%	2.3	26.0%	11.5%	14.6%	0.5%	1.77	2.64	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	5	0	7	34	7	3	0	0%	1.5	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.0%	3.68	2.48	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	5	0	7	34	7	3	0	0%	1.5	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.0%	3.68	2.42	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	16	0	22	96	27	15	0	0%	1.4	19.1%	19.5%	-0.4%	0.0%	5.40	3.96	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	16	0	22	96	27	15	0	0%	1.4	28.1%	15.6%	12.5%	0.0%	5.40	2.68	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	47	189	51	16	0	0%	1.7	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	0.0%	1.74	2.65	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	47	189	51	16	0	0%	1.7	27.0%	8.5%	18.5%	0.0%	1.74	1.94	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	3	53	246	70	33	9	9%	1.6	23.0%	14.8%	8.3%	4.8%	5.57	5.63	—
2021	22	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	3	53	246	70	33	9	9%	1.6	28.5%	13.4%	15.0%	3.7%	5.57	4.53	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	34	0	46	204	62	25	3	0%	1.4	23.4%	14.1%	9.3%	1.9%	3.33	3.97	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	34	0	46	204	62	25	3	0%	1.4	30.4%	12.3%	18.1%	1.5%	3.33	2.88	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	261	62	23	6	0%	1.6	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	2.7%	3.71	4.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	261	62	23	6	0%	1.6	18.8%	9.9%	8.9%	2.7%	3.71	4.26	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	61	261	62	23	6	0%	1.6	23.8%	8.8%	14.9%	2.3%	3.71	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	9.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	39	0	41	174	38	17	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	14	0	15	63	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	79	26	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		172	3	281	1222	251	159	24	2%	1.6	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.0%	3.49	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	2	200	869	178	113	17	2%	1.6	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.0%	3.49	4.10	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Amaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.9%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.54	21.9%	12.3%	41	+0.06	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	84
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	83
Fabian Williamson L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	23.8%	9.0%	2.1%	.259	5.26	16.5%	-3.3%	54	+1.87	3.39	154	83
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	82
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	81
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	81
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	80
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	80
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	80
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	80
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	80
Patrick Schuster L 2017 · 4.51 FIP	26	SU	4.51	19.8%	8.3%	3.7%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	160	80
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	79
Kelly Wunsch L 2000 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	19.7%	10.8%	1.5%	.261	4.17	17.6%	5.9%	90	+0.52	3.36	175	79
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	79
Keith Hessler L 2016 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	19.0%	9.3%	1.1%	.305	5.06	17.8%	5.2%	98	+1.75	3.31	228	79
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Dan Jennings L 2014 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	20.9%	8.8%	1.7%	.336	3.56	18.6%	9.5%	180	+0.16	2.60	344	78
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	21.9%	9.6%	1.17	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78