Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 14 | 14 | 58 | 244 | 55 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 15.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 1.1% | 4.37 | 3.47 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 14 | 14 | 58 | 244 | 55 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 16.0% | 0.8% | 4.37 | 2.48 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 17 | 1 | 45 | 171 | 48 | 18 | 0 | 6% | 2.7 | 19.1% | 13.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.79 | 3.15 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 17 | 1 | 45 | 171 | 48 | 18 | 0 | 6% | 2.7 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 0.79 | 2.17 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 17 | 2 | 56 | 229 | 67 | 16 | 0 | 12% | 3.3 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 2.41 | 2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 17 | 2 | 56 | 229 | 67 | 16 | 0 | 12% | 3.3 | 29.3% | 7.0% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 2.41 | 1.56 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 5 | 5 | 28 | 114 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.2% | 2.1% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.21 | 3.31 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | 5 | 5 | 28 | 114 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.6% | 1.8% | 22.8% | 1.8% | 3.21 | 2.24 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 73 | 297 | 88 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 1.3% | 2.21 | 2.87 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 73 | 297 | 88 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 29.6% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 1.0% | 2.21 | 2.13 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 9.4% | 18.8% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 3.92 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 74 | 320 | 71 | 23 | 9 | 8% | 1.5 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 3.30 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 74 | 320 | 71 | 23 | 9 | 8% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 7.2% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 3.30 | 3.70 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 64 | 268 | 73 | 20 | 4 | 2% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 7.8% | 16.9% | 1.4% | 3.53 | 2.78 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 64 | 268 | 73 | 20 | 4 | 2% | 1.3 | 27.2% | 7.5% | 19.8% | 1.5% | 3.53 | 2.57 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 201 | 62 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 10.2% | 18.9% | 1.9% | 4.62 | 2.98 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 201 | 62 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.8% | 10.0% | 20.9% | 2.0% | 4.62 | 2.85 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 73 | 0 | 79 | 313 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 18.2% | 3.0% | 2.52 | 3.56 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 73 | 0 | 79 | 313 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 18.2% | 2.9% | 2.52 | 3.46 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 44 | 0 | 41 | 170 | 40 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.5% | 7.1% | 16.5% | 1.8% | 2.40 | 2.98 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SEA | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 7.6% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.19 | 3.45 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SEA | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 7.6% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.19 | 3.45 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 67 | 280 | 67 | 20 | 6 | — | — | 23.8% | 7.3% | 16.6% | 2.1% | 2.70 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 67 | 284 | 67 | 20 | 6 | — | — | 23.5% | 7.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | 2.70 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 60 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 348 | 0 | 374 | 1543 | 371 | 123 | 44 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 3.66 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 824 | 198 | 66 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 366 | 27 | 585 | 2412 | 532 | 200 | 43 | 7% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 3.02 | 3.26 | +14.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 9 | 200 | 825 | 182 | 68 | 15 | 7% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 3.02 | 3.26 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eduard Bazardo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.97 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.30 | 23.0% | 14.6% | 174 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 83 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 82 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 82 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 80 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 79 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 79 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.96 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% | .251 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 17.4% | 50 | +0.68 | 2.96 | 230 | 78 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 78 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 76 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 76 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 76 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 75 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.82 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 1.0% | .275 | 4.46 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 108 | +1.64 | 2.40 | 617 | 75 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.90 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.17 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.73 | 2.33 | 445 | 75 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 75 |
| Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 75 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.79 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .238 | 3.88 | 18.4% | 13.3% | 151 | +1.09 | 2.60 | 283 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 60 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 1.18 | 4.00 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Adam Warren ('19) | 5 | 67 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.08 | 3.55 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |