Anderson Espinoza prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Anderson Espinoza P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%18.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

FB-0.8

CH-0.8

SL-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	17	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	58	233	65	14	0	100%	3.9	19.2%	6.9%	12.3%	0.0%	1.23	2.36	—
2015	17	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	58	233	65	14	0	100%	3.9	27.9%	6.0%	21.9%	0.0%	1.23	1.59	—
2016	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	25	24	108	464	100	35	3	96%	4.3	15.9%	8.9%	7.0%	0.9%	4.49	3.40	—
2016	18	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	25	24	108	464	100	35	3	96%	4.3	21.6%	7.5%	14.0%	0.6%	4.49	2.58	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	58	251	80	32	4	100%	2.9	24.8%	14.5%	10.3%	2.1%	4.19	4.02	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	58	251	80	32	4	100%	2.9	31.9%	12.7%	19.1%	1.6%	4.19	2.89	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	18	89	402	97	60	21	64%	3.2	20.9%	15.8%	5.1%	5.9%	7.11	6.58	-1.7
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	18	89	402	97	60	21	64%	3.2	24.1%	14.9%	9.2%	5.2%	7.11	6.02	-1.1
2023	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	28	28	132	607	117	73	17	100%	4.7	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	2.9%	6.15	4.68	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	28	28	132	607	117	73	17	100%	4.7	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	2.9%	6.15	4.68	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	28	28	132	607	117	73	17	100%	4.7	19.3%	12.0%	7.2%	2.8%	6.15	4.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	0	18	85	19	16	4	0%	2.6	22.4%	18.8%	3.5%	4.7%	5.40	6.48	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	10.3%	8.1%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	86	363	66	37	11	100%	6.1	18.1%	10.3%	7.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.97	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	81	341	60	35	11	100%	6.2	17.7%	10.4%	7.4%	3.3%	5.02	5.12	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	32	135	25	14	4	100%	6.4	18.1%	10.3%	7.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.97	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	45	190	34	20	6	100%	5.6	17.7%	10.4%	7.4%	3.3%	5.02	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	13	94	407	77	49	14	65%	4.7	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	3.6%	5.06	4.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	27	200	861	163	104	30	64%	4.8	18.8%	12.1%	6.7%	3.6%	5.06	4.99	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		116	105	445	1957	365	223	51	91%	3.8	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	2.6%	5.04	4.41	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	47	200	880	164	100	23	91%	3.8	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	2.6%	5.04	4.41	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anderson Espinoza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	18.4%	10.3%	3.0%	—	5.04	17.9%	7.6%	167	+0.17	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	74
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	74
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	74
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	74
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	73
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	73
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	73
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	72
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	72
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	71
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	71
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	71
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	70
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	70
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	70
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	69
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	69
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	69
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	92	18.4%	10.9%	1.26	4.96
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Tony Armas ('08)	4.6	116	16.8%	10.6%	1.19	4.65
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Mike Bolsinger ('17)	1.2	58	20.5%	9.6%	1.33	4.92
Kyle Davies ('15)	3.9	110	15.7%	10.5%	1.16	5.57