Reed Garrett — OGILVIE

Reed Garrett P New York Mets

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.6 · 2027

ERA4.02

FIP3.88

xFIP3.65

SIERA3.63

K%27.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%17.0%

IP47

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2027

K†6565

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p8330.5%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

SL+2.8 (49%)

FB+2.7 (29%)

SI (24%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	A+	High Desert Mavericks	25	25	140	594	96	48	18	12.3%	9.4%	3.7%	4.58	5.26	+0.1
2016	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	29	18	110	490	86	50	13	14.7%	11.6%	3.1%	6.24	5.02	+0.4
2017	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	44	4	69	296	70	29	10	19.2%	10.8%	3.6%	4.98	4.83	+0.2
2018	25	AAA	Round Rock Express	51	0	62	250	61	17	3	20.2%	7.4%	1.3%	2.04	3.06	+1.3
2019	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	47	0	56	260	50	31	7	17.4%	12.3%	2.9%	5.82	4.79	+0.1
2022	29	MLB	Washington Nationals	50	0	58	249	59	24	6	23.8%	9.1%	2.6%	3.59	3.69	+0.8
2023	30	MLB	New York Mets	42	0	55	244	55	25	7	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.36	+0.4
2024	31	MLB	New York Mets	56	0	61	265	91	31	6	33.6%	11.7%	2.4%	4.01	3.09	+1.3
2025	32	MLB	New York Mets	59	2	56	242	66	24	5	26.9%	10.1%	2.0%	3.83	3.22	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	NYM	14	—	14	60	18	6	2	29.6%	10.3%	2.6%	3.95	3.70	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	NYM	45	—	45	189	55	20	5	28.9%	10.5%	2.7%	3.89	3.84	+0.6
2028	35	MLB	NYM	42	—	42	178	50	19	5	28.1%	10.7%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+0.5
2029	36	MLB	NYM	39	—	39	166	46	18	5	27.4%	11.0%	2.9%	4.07	4.16	+0.4
2030	37	MLB	NYM	36	—	36	154	41	17	5	26.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.23	4.33	+0.3
2031	38	MLB	NYM	34	—	34	142	36	16	5	25.7%	11.5%	3.2%	4.40	4.52	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			403	49	665	2890	561	299	84	19.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.53	4.36	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—			121	15	200	869	169	90	25	19.4%	10.3%	2.9%	4.53	4.36	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reed Garrett (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.70	29.6%	10.3%	2.6%	—	3.99	28.2%	17.5%	126	+0.29	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	33	SW	3.63	27.3%	7.3%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	316	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	72
Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	71
Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.6%	.290	3.90	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.40	3.50	219	71
Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.07 FIP	33	SW	3.07	31.1%	13.1%	1.7%	.275	2.96	28.4%	19.5%	146	-0.11	2.15	488	71
C.C. Lee R 2024 · 3.02 FIP	31	SU	3.02	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	121	71
Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 2.48 FIP	33	SU	2.48	26.5%	10.0%	0.6%	.352	3.94	18.1%	5.2%	44	+1.46	2.48	147	70
Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	69
Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.86 FIP	35	SU	2.86	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.60	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.74	2.45	200	69
Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	33	SW	3.44	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.288	4.25	20.8%	13.5%	296	+0.81	2.64	1,424	68
Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 2.67 FIP	33	SW	2.67	26.5%	5.1%	2.1%	.297	2.85	25.4%	18.0%	31	+0.18	2.67	186	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	33	SW	3.46	25.3%	11.3%	1.9%	.304	3.46	22.4%	12.4%	128	+0.00	3.08	303	67
Jim Johnson R 2026 · 2.57 FIP	33	SW	2.57	25.6%	7.5%	1.2%	.309	4.26	20.1%	11.9%	120	+1.69	2.57	251	67
Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	33	SW	3.02	23.7%	7.5%	1.8%	.211	4.10	27.5%	16.8%	42	+1.08	2.58	277	67
David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.86 FIP	33	SW	2.86	25.6%	6.3%	2.1%	.240	3.85	26.8%	18.2%	43	+0.99	2.56	268	67
Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 2.44 FIP	33	SW	2.44	35.1%	10.0%	1.9%	.313	2.85	37.0%	25.3%	115	+0.41	2.44	316	66
Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	132	66
Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.03 FIP	33	SU	3.03	27.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.305	5.07	21.4%	9.7%	88	+2.04	2.83	239	66
Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.12 FIP	33	SU	3.12	22.6%	8.2%	1.6%	.358	4.15	13.7%	6.9%	250	+1.03	3.12	352	65
Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	65

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2019

Service 2.831 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.5M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.1M
2029	Arb-4	$3M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$7M	+$0.6M