Luis Ortiz
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.5
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.84
FIP4.20
xFIP3.17
SIERA1.54
K%22.9%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.2%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p1620.5%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
FB (40%)
SI (30%)
CU (10%)
SL (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 13 | 13 | 50 | 201 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 16.9% | 5.3% | 0.5% | 1.80 | 2.62 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 20 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 20 | 91 | 388 | 78 | 23 | 9 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 3.08 | 3.87 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 20 | 94 | 392 | 79 | 37 | 12 | 16.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.42 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 22 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 24 | 18 | 102 | 441 | 86 | 27 | 11 | 16.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.06 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 16 | 15 | 71 | 327 | 53 | 35 | 17 | 13.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 6.50 | 6.66 | -1.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 4 | 43 | 188 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 4.60 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 41 | 4 | 76 | 316 | 78 | 16 | 8 | 22.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 3.54 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 47 | 1 | 64 | 268 | 61 | 17 | 3 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 4.22 | 2.81 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 12.15 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 57 | 22 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 219 | 95 | 597 | 2552 | 450 | 191 | 76 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 32 | 200 | 854 | 151 | 64 | 25 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Ortiz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.43 | 21.8% | 12.8% | 172 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 89 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 86 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 85 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 84 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 84 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 83 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 83 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 81 |
| Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 81 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 80 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 79 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 79 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 79 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 79 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.21 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.66 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.45 | 2.80 | 284 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.