Luis Ortiz
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION43 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.18
FIP4.20
xFIP3.17
SIERA1.54
K%22.9%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.2%
IP44
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p1620.5%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
FB (40%)
SI (30%)
CU (10%)
SL (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 13 | 13 | 50 | 201 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 16.9% | 5.3% | 0.4% | 1.80 | 2.58 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 20 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 20 | 91 | 388 | 78 | 23 | 9 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 3.08 | 3.67 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 20 | 94 | 392 | 79 | 37 | 12 | 16.3% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 4.01 | 4.17 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 24 | 18 | 102 | 441 | 86 | 27 | 11 | 16.8% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.02 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 16 | 15 | 71 | 327 | 53 | 35 | 17 | 13.5% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 6.50 | 7.07 | -1.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 4 | 43 | 188 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 4.60 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 41 | 4 | 76 | 316 | 78 | 16 | 8 | 22.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 3.57 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 47 | 1 | 64 | 268 | 61 | 17 | 3 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 4.22 | 2.80 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 6 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 12.15 | 6.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 5.05 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 18.9% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 219 | 95 | 597 | 2552 | 450 | 191 | 75 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 32 | 200 | 854 | 151 | 64 | 25 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Ortiz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.68 | 21.5% | 12.0% | 113 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 86 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 83 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 81 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 80 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.67 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | .280 | 3.52 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.15 | 2.68 | 186 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.69 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.54 | 3.15 | 272 | 80 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 80 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.23 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.16 | 186 | 79 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.4% | .248 | 2.54 | 20.5% | 14.7% | 19 | -0.49 | 2.54 | 130 | 78 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 78 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 78 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 402 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.41 | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.