Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 15 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 3.81 | 4.36 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 15 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 31.5% | 6.3% | 25.2% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 2.72 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 42 | 168 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 88% | 5.2 | 12.9% | 12.1% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 2.57 | 5.16 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 42 | 168 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 88% | 5.2 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 2.57 | 4.08 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 101 | 433 | 105 | 34 | 16 | 77% | 4.6 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 4.53 | 5.00 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 101 | 433 | 105 | 34 | 16 | 77% | 4.6 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.09 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 37 | 157 | 50 | 14 | 3 | 13% | 2.5 | 26.8% | 9.1% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 3.65 | 2.84 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 37 | 157 | 50 | 14 | 3 | 13% | 2.5 | 31.8% | 8.9% | 22.9% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 2.59 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 46 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 2.96 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 46 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 1.5% | 2.96 | 2.99 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 13 | 80 | 353 | 81 | 31 | 11 | 43% | 2.7 | 19.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 5.40 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 13 | 80 | 353 | 81 | 31 | 11 | 43% | 2.7 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 4.03 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 6 | 70 | 305 | 66 | 30 | 5 | 17% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 1.5% | 5.30 | 3.68 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 6 | 70 | 305 | 66 | 30 | 5 | 17% | 2.0 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 5.30 | 3.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 44 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 48 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.56 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 0 | 200 | 836 | 153 | 89 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 155 | 45 | 402 | 1728 | 333 | 164 | 50 | 29% | 2.6 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.25 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 22 | 200 | 860 | 166 | 82 | 25 | 29% | 2.6 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Maciejewski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 2.5% | — | 5.00 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 122 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 74 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 70 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 70 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 69 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 68 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.08 | 4.40 | 713 | 67 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 67 |
| Matt Moore L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 66 |
| Justin Marks L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 66 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 64 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.38 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 200 | 64 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 63 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 62 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.32 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% | .337 | 4.73 | 15.6% | 4.4% | 86 | -0.59 | 3.36 | 764 | 61 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 61 |
| Mike Kickham L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.00 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .311 | 5.91 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 61 | +1.91 | 3.00 | 368 | 61 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 61 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 61 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 61 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 17.6% | 11.0% | 1.07 | 4.85 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |