Tucker Davidson
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.07
FIP4.47
xFIP5.64
SIERA5.87
K%20.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%11.6%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p3219.5%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
FB (31%)
SI (16%)
CU (12%)
SL (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Braves | 11 | 1 | 30 | 126 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 17.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.52 | 2.75 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 31 | 12 | 104 | 422 | 101 | 30 | 4 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 2.60 | 3.61 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | 24 | 24 | 118 | 514 | 99 | 58 | 5 | 14.8% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 25 | 25 | 130 | 531 | 134 | 54 | 5 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 1.3% | 2.15 | 3.47 | +2.7 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 8 | 8 | 43 | 167 | 46 | 13 | 5 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 2.30 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 27 | 26 | 132 | 588 | 129 | 59 | 21 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 5.44 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 38 | 1 | 51 | 236 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 5.96 | 3.71 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 33 | 17 | 120 | 522 | 105 | 48 | 17 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 3.74 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 6 | 6 | 25 | 109 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 0.9% | 4.68 | 2.76 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 3 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 6 | 9 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.79 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | — | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | — | — | — | 55 | 234 | 43 | 26 | 6 | 18.3% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 5.25 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | — | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | — | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | — | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | — | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | — | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | — | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 15.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.28 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 123 | 764 | 3271 | 613 | 327 | 76 | 18.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 4.06 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 32 | 200 | 856 | 160 | 86 | 20 | 18.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tucker Davidson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.80 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 126 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 85 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 84 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 82 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 80 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 80 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 78 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 78 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.60 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.28 | 1.60 | 309 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 77 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 76 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 75 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 75 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 75 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 75 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 75 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 74 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.