Tucker Davidson
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION162 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.60
FIP4.58
xFIP5.64
SIERA5.87
K%19.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%10.6%
IP162
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p3219.5%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
FB (31%)
SI (16%)
CU (12%)
SL (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | GCL Braves | 11 | 1 | 30 | 126 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 17.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.52 | 2.75 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 31 | 12 | 104 | 422 | 101 | 30 | 4 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 2.60 | 4.00 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | 24 | 24 | 118 | 514 | 99 | 58 | 5 | 14.8% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 25 | 25 | 130 | 531 | 134 | 54 | 5 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 1.4% | 2.15 | 3.54 | +2.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 15.4% | 30.8% | 7.7% | 10.80 | 9.92 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 8 | 8 | 43 | 167 | 46 | 13 | 5 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 2.30 | 3.66 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 27 | 26 | 132 | 588 | 129 | 59 | 21 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 38 | 1 | 51 | 236 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 5.96 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 33 | 17 | 120 | 522 | 105 | 48 | 17 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 3.74 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 6 | 6 | 25 | 109 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 4.68 | 2.70 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 12 | 10 | 44 | 212 | 40 | 32 | 5 | 16.6% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 6.50 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 30 | 162 | 685 | 133 | 60 | 20 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.58 | +1.6 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 207 | 897 | 173 | 92 | 25 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 4.70 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 28 | 151 | 639 | 119 | 58 | 20 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.81 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 105 | 56 | 20 | 17.8% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 92 | 54 | 20 | 16.9% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 79 | 51 | 20 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 5.46 | 5.65 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 67 | 49 | 19 | 15.1% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 5.78 | 5.99 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 55 | 45 | 19 | 14.1% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 6.13 | 6.36 | -1.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 131 | 799 | 3440 | 642 | 352 | 88 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 4.22 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 861 | 161 | 88 | 22 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tucker Davidson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.06 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 420 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| John Danks L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.30 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .303 | 5.79 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.49 | 4.30 | 200 | 82 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 81 |
| Brad Mills L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 79 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.74 | 3.72 | 395 | 77 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.05 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .287 | 5.29 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 171 | +1.24 | 4.01 | 642 | 77 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.93 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.32 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.39 | 3.68 | 549 | 73 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.80 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 412 | 72 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.25 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 239 | -0.02 | 2.89 | 540 | 71 |
| Brett Oberholtzer L 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.82 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 442 | 69 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.81 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .328 | 3.88 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 288 | -0.93 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 69 |
| Frank Garces L 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.56 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 306 | 68 |
| John Lannan L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.75 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 1.5% | .354 | 4.76 | 8.2% | 0.5% | 132 | +1.01 | 3.75 | 284 | 68 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.62 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .279 | 4.01 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 117 | -0.61 | 3.29 | 915 | 68 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.83 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | .297 | 5.54 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.71 | 3.47 | 512 | 66 |
| Adam Wilk L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.58 | 13.5% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 455 | 66 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.42 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 189 | 65 |
| Andrew Albers L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.16 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .347 | 3.01 | 20.7% | 16.2% | 162 | -1.15 | 3.01 | 508 | 64 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.18 | 20.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | .253 | 4.18 | 23.2% | 16.0% | 424 | +0.00 | 2.42 | 807 | 63 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.55 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 3.94 | 27.0% | 19.2% | 444 | -0.61 | 3.25 | 1,019 | 62 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.84 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 440 | 62 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.