Jalen Beeks — OGILVIE

Jalen Beeks P Texas Rangers

Age 33 LHP 5'11" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.95

FIP3.95

K%19.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

FB+3.5 (51%)

SL (3%)

CH-0.5 (40%)

CT-1.1 (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	26	26	146	616	100	28	17	100%	5.6	12.0%	5.4%	6.6%	3.7%	4.32	4.78	—
2015	22	A RAW	Greenville Drive	26	26	146	616	100	28	17	100%	5.6	16.2%	4.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.32	3.82	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	133	581	111	52	15	100%	5.1	15.1%	10.1%	5.0%	3.4%	3.87	4.95	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	133	581	111	52	15	100%	5.1	19.1%	9.0%	10.2%	2.6%	3.87	4.07	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	145	605	155	55	13	100%	5.6	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	2.2%	3.29	3.71	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	145	605	155	55	13	100%	5.6	25.6%	9.1%	16.5%	2.1%	3.29	3.27	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	138	578	159	49	16	57%	4.6	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.5%	3.85	3.45	+2.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	138	578	159	49	16	57%	4.6	27.5%	8.5%	19.0%	2.8%	3.85	3.37	+2.6
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	6	115	506	99	43	14	17%	3.2	19.2%	8.4%	10.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.00	+0.7
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	6	115	506	99	43	14	17%	3.2	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	2.8%	4.30	4.08	+0.6
2020	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	12	0	19	81	26	4	1	0%	1.6	32.1%	4.9%	27.2%	1.3%	3.26	1.71	+0.7
2020	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	12	0	19	81	26	4	1	0%	1.6	32.1%	4.9%	27.2%	1.2%	3.26	1.70	+0.7
2022	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	42	7	61	250	70	22	7	17%	1.5	28.0%	8.8%	19.2%	2.9%	2.80	3.43	+0.8
2022	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	42	7	61	250	70	22	7	17%	1.5	28.0%	8.8%	19.2%	2.8%	2.80	3.38	+0.9
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	9	68	302	74	29	7	18%	1.4	23.0%	9.3%	13.6%	2.3%	5.16	3.62	+0.8
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	9	68	302	74	29	7	18%	1.4	23.0%	9.3%	13.6%	2.3%	5.16	3.62	+0.8
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	9	68	302	74	29	7	18%	1.4	24.5%	9.6%	14.9%	2.3%	5.16	3.54	+0.8
2024	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	71	0	70	312	55	25	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	2.1%	4.50	3.77	+0.6
2024	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	71	0	70	312	55	25	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	2.1%	4.50	3.77	+0.6
2024	31	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	71	0	70	312	55	25	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	1.9%	4.50	3.71	+0.7
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	2	58	234	47	19	6	3%	0.9	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	2.7%	3.70	3.88	+0.5
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	2	58	234	47	19	6	3%	0.9	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	2.7%	3.70	3.88	+0.5
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	2	58	234	47	19	6	3%	0.9	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	2.6%	3.70	3.80	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			292	21	431	1866	397	160	48	7%	1.5	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.6%	4.28	3.82	+3.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	0	26	113	21	7	6	0%	0.9	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	4.9%	3.81	5.03	-0.1
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	0	26	113	21	7	6	0%	0.9	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	4.9%	3.81	5.03	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	TEX	29	0	26	113	21	7	6	0%	0.9	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	5.3%	3.81	5.23	-0.2
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	TEX	29	0	26	113	21	7	6	0%	0.9	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	5.3%	3.81	5.23	-0.2
ROS	33	MLB MLE	TEX	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.5	19.7%	7.7%	12.0%	2.8%	3.95	3.95	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.7%	12.0%	2.8%	3.95	3.95	+0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	27	119	22	7	6	—	—	18.6%	6.3%	12.4%	5.2%	3.82	4.97	-0.1
FULL	33	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	27	116	22	7	6	—	—	19.2%	6.4%	12.7%	5.3%	3.82	5.22	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	TEX	47	0	49	206	39	17	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	8.2%	10.8%	3.5%	4.70	4.83	-0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	44	185	33	16	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.7%	9.2%	3.8%	4.98	5.16	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	TEX	47	0	49	207	39	17	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	8.2%	10.8%	3.5%	4.70	4.83	-0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	TEX	42	0	44	186	33	16	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.7%	9.2%	3.8%	4.98	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		382	21	525	2264	471	194	62	5%	1.4	20.8%	8.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.38	3.94	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		145	8	200	862	179	74	24	6%	1.4	20.8%	8.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.38	3.94	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		410	119	979	4178	825	348	117	29%	2.4	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	2.8%	3.94	4.03	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	24	200	854	169	71	24	29%	2.4	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	2.8%	3.94	4.03	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jalen Beeks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	20.3%	8.2%	2.7%	—	4.99	18.5%	10.0%	93	+0.71	—	—	—
Roenis Elías L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	33	SW	4.06	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.316	6.66	17.4%	12.2%	21	+2.60	3.15	564	73
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	69
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	68
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	67
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	66
David Huff L 2016 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	158	66
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	64
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	64
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	64
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	63
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.76	21.0%	14.0%	152	-0.44	1.80	421	61
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	61
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	61
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	3.78	127	60
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	32	SU	4.98	15.2%	7.0%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	159	59
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	58
Boone Logan L 2018 · 5.29 FIP	33	SU	5.29	24.1%	12.1%	4.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	113	58
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.24	15.2%	-1.2%	26	+0.89	2.97	294	58
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	58
Luis Avilán L 2022 · 5.40 FIP	33	SU	5.40	22.2%	10.0%	5.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	256	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	19.1%	8.3%	1.28	4.64
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38