Albert Abreu
P
Louisville Bats
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.73
FIP4.76
K%22.9%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
SL+3.7
CH-1.9
FB-5.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 13 | 7 | 47 | 196 | 51 | 21 | 2 | 54% | 3.6 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 2.51 | 4.09 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 13 | 7 | 47 | 196 | 51 | 21 | 2 | 54% | 3.6 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 2.51 | 2.82 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 102 | 438 | 115 | 58 | 7 | 67% | 4.2 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 3.72 | 4.62 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 102 | 438 | 115 | 58 | 7 | 67% | 4.2 | 26.3% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 1.6% | 3.72 | 3.44 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 53 | 221 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 93% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.88 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 53 | 221 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 93% | 3.8 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 1.4% | 3.38 | 2.56 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 73 | 326 | 74 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.3% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 4.70 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 73 | 326 | 74 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 5.20 | 3.99 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 23 | 20 | 97 | 440 | 91 | 53 | 9 | 87% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.83 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 23 | 20 | 97 | 440 | 91 | 53 | 9 | 87% | 4.2 | 20.7% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 4.28 | 4.07 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 20.25 | 8.86 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 20.25 | 14.35 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 53 | 228 | 66 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.3% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 53 | 228 | 66 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.9% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 46 | 204 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 2.93 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 46 | 204 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 2.93 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 45 | 0 | 59 | 268 | 61 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 45 | 0 | 59 | 268 | 61 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 17 | 2 | 23 | 113 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 12% | 1.4 | 14.0% | 14.9% | -0.8% | 2.4% | 5.79 | 5.13 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 17 | 2 | 23 | 113 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 12% | 1.4 | 15.9% | 14.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 5.79 | 4.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 58 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 52 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 0 | 185 | 813 | 181 | 103 | 30 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.84 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 0 | 200 | 881 | 196 | 112 | 33 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 234 | 75 | 554 | 2445 | 483 | 323 | 63 | 32% | 2.4 | 19.8% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.53 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 27 | 200 | 883 | 174 | 117 | 23 | 32% | 2.4 | 19.8% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Albert Abreu (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.11 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 107 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 69 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 68 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 68 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 68 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 67 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 67 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 66 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.37 | 26.9% | 14.6% | 3.1% | .329 | 1.32 | 37.9% | 26.7% | 29 | -3.05 | 1.32 | 650 | 66 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 65 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 65 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 65 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 64 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 64 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 64 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 64 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.69 | 16.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .281 | 3.58 | 33.6% | 23.7% | 41 | -1.11 | 3.57 | 291 | 63 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 63 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | -0.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 63 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 1.23 | 4.90 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |