Albert Abreu — OGILVIE

Albert Abreu P Louisville Bats

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.68

FIP4.67

K%22.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

SL+3.7

CH-1.9

FB-5.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	13	7	47	196	51	21	2	54%	3.6	17.7%	13.4%	4.3%	1.4%	2.51	4.09	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	13	7	47	196	51	21	2	54%	3.6	26.0%	10.7%	15.3%	1.0%	2.51	2.82	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	102	438	115	58	7	67%	4.2	19.5%	15.6%	3.9%	2.1%	3.72	4.57	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	102	438	115	58	7	67%	4.2	26.3%	13.2%	13.0%	1.6%	3.72	3.44	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	53	221	61	18	3	93%	3.8	19.8%	10.2%	9.5%	2.0%	3.38	3.81	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	53	221	61	18	3	93%	3.8	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	1.4%	3.38	2.56	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	73	326	74	32	9	100%	4.3	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	3.4%	5.20	4.97	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	73	326	74	32	9	100%	4.3	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	2.8%	5.20	3.99	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	23	20	97	440	91	53	9	87%	4.2	16.8%	13.2%	3.5%	2.6%	4.28	4.77	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Trenton Thunder	23	20	97	440	91	53	9	87%	4.2	20.7%	12.0%	8.6%	2.0%	4.28	4.07	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	2	0	1	11	2	2	1	0%	0.7	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	9.1%	20.25	8.86	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	2	0	1	11	2	2	1	0%	0.7	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	9.1%	20.25	14.35	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	228	66	29	8	0%	1.4	27.3%	13.0%	14.4%	3.3%	4.73	4.24	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	228	66	29	8	0%	1.4	28.9%	12.7%	16.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.21	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	46	204	47	24	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	2.7%	2.93	4.35	+0.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	46	204	47	24	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.8%	11.3%	2.5%	2.93	4.03	+0.3
2023	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	45	0	59	268	61	34	9	0%	1.3	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	3.1%	4.73	4.51	+0.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	45	0	59	268	61	34	9	0%	1.3	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	3.1%	4.73	4.51	+0.0
2023	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	45	0	59	268	61	34	9	0%	1.3	22.8%	12.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.73	4.74	-0.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	17	2	23	113	18	16	2	12%	1.4	13.2%	12.7%	0.5%	2.2%	5.79	4.78	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	17	2	23	113	18	16	2	12%	1.4	13.2%	12.7%	0.5%	2.2%	5.79	4.78	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	17	2	23	113	18	16	2	12%	1.4	15.9%	14.2%	1.8%	1.8%	5.79	4.73	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			108	0	136	607	136	76	23	0%	1.3	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	3.8%	4.58	4.98	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CIN	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.68	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CIN	53	0	56	235	52	29	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.81	4.90	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	49	0	52	217	46	28	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.7%	8.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.16	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	CIN	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.81	4.90	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	27	0	28	118	25	15	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.7%	8.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	0	185	813	180	102	30	0%	1.2	22.2%	12.5%	9.7%	3.7%	4.67	4.82	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	0	200	881	195	111	33	0%	1.2	22.2%	12.5%	9.7%	3.7%	4.67	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		234	75	554	2445	482	321	64	32%	2.4	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.6%	4.14	4.52	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	27	200	883	174	116	23	32%	2.4	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.6%	4.14	4.52	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Albert Abreu (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	22.8%	12.0%	2.9%	—	5.02	21.6%	9.1%	107	+0.35	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	75
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	74
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	73
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	70
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	70
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	69
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	68
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	68
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	68
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	68
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	66
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.98	17.8%	11.2%	254	+0.07	3.52	390	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	65
Blake Wood R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	30	SU	3.76	24.5%	10.6%	2.5%	.307	3.44	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.32	2.92	210	65
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	65
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	65
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	64
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	64
Arquimedes Caminero R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	29	SU	4.45	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.62	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.17	3.54	173	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.0%	12.3%	1.21	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99