Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 14 | 0 | 23 | 108 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.2% | 13.9% | -0.7% | 1.3% | 6.56 | 4.45 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 14 | 0 | 23 | 108 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 6.56 | 3.40 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 16 | 0 | 25 | 110 | 28 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.3% | 17.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 2.88 | 4.50 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 16 | 0 | 25 | 110 | 28 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.5% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 0.9% | 2.88 | 3.18 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 25 | 128 | 25 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 13.9% | 17.1% | -3.2% | 2.2% | 7.66 | 5.29 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 25 | 128 | 25 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 7.66 | 4.32 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 40 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 43 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.4% | 14.9% | -1.5% | 1.4% | 4.39 | 4.60 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 40 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 43 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.1% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 4.39 | 3.91 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 39 | 0 | 54 | 253 | 48 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.6% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 5.63 | 4.10 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 39 | 0 | 54 | 253 | 48 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 5.63 | 3.54 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 43 | 189 | 63 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.6% | 10.1% | 16.5% | 3.9% | 6.75 | 4.24 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 43 | 189 | 63 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 33.3% | 9.0% | 24.3% | 4.2% | 6.75 | 3.78 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 1 | 29 | 148 | 36 | 32 | 3 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 24.7% | -2.5% | 2.6% | 8.90 | 5.79 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 1 | 29 | 148 | 36 | 32 | 3 | 5% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 21.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 8.90 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 53 | 0 | 66 | 300 | 103 | 49 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.2% | 17.2% | 13.1% | 0.9% | 4.25 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 53 | 0 | 66 | 300 | 103 | 49 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.3% | 16.3% | 18.0% | 0.7% | 4.25 | 2.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 9 | 0 | 10 | 55 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 20.0% | -3.8% | 0.0% | 6.30 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | LAA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 47 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 55 | 245 | 58 | 31 | 5 | — | — | 23.6% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 4.66 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.7% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 3.92 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 43 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 190 | 95 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 241 | 1 | 328 | 1529 | 302 | 240 | 26 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.8% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 5.62 | 4.35 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 1 | 200 | 931 | 184 | 146 | 16 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.8% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 5.62 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aneurys Zabala (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.48 | 24.2% | 13.3% | 42 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .353 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +1.17 | 2.54 | 279 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 82 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 81 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 81 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 81 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 81 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 81 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 80 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 80 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 80 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 79 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 79 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 1.13 | 4.35 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |