Aneurys Zabala — OGILVIE

Aneurys Zabala P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 259 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%26.4%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

CH+0.7

FB-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	14	0	23	108	21	12	1	0%	1.7	13.2%	13.9%	-0.7%	1.3%	6.56	4.45	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	14	0	23	108	21	12	1	0%	1.7	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	0.9%	6.56	3.40	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	16	0	25	110	28	15	1	0%	1.6	17.3%	17.0%	0.3%	1.3%	2.88	4.50	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	16	0	25	110	28	15	1	0%	1.6	25.5%	13.6%	11.8%	0.9%	2.88	3.18	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	25	128	25	18	2	0%	1.6	13.9%	17.1%	-3.2%	2.1%	7.66	5.27	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	25	128	25	18	2	0%	1.6	19.5%	14.1%	5.5%	1.6%	7.66	4.32	—
2018	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	40	0	53	238	43	30	3	0%	1.3	13.4%	14.9%	-1.5%	1.5%	4.39	4.67	—
2018	21	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	40	0	53	238	43	30	3	0%	1.3	18.1%	12.6%	5.5%	1.3%	4.39	3.91	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	39	0	54	253	48	27	3	0%	1.4	14.6%	12.3%	2.3%	1.3%	5.63	4.16	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	39	0	54	253	48	27	3	0%	1.4	19.0%	10.7%	8.3%	1.2%	5.63	3.54	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	43	189	63	17	8	0%	1.3	26.6%	10.1%	16.5%	4.3%	6.75	4.51	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	43	189	63	17	8	0%	1.3	33.3%	9.0%	24.3%	4.2%	6.75	3.78	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	29	148	36	32	3	5%	1.3	22.2%	24.7%	-2.5%	2.7%	8.90	5.83	-0.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	1	29	148	36	32	3	5%	1.3	24.3%	21.6%	2.7%	2.0%	8.90	5.25	-0.2
2023	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	53	0	66	300	103	49	2	0%	1.2	28.5%	14.7%	13.8%	0.8%	4.25	3.00	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	53	0	66	300	103	49	2	0%	1.2	28.5%	14.7%	13.8%	0.8%	4.25	3.00	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	53	0	66	300	103	49	2	0%	1.2	34.3%	16.3%	18.0%	0.7%	4.25	2.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	3	11	2	1	0	0%	1.3	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.73	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	9	0	10	55	11	10	0	0%	1.1	16.2%	20.0%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.30	4.27	—
YTD	29	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	9	0	10	55	11	10	0	0%	1.1	16.2%	20.0%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.30	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	LAA	9	0	10	55	11	10	0	0%	1.1	20.0%	18.2%	1.8%	0.0%	6.30	3.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	LAA	40	0	42	179	46	22	5	0%	1.1	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	LAA	12	0	13	55	14	7	2	0%	1.1	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	16	8	2	0%	1.1	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	2.5%	3.68	3.88	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	841	201	101	25	0%	1.1	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	2.5%	3.68	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		241	1	328	1529	297	233	27	0%	1.4	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	1.8%	5.62	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	1	200	931	181	142	17	0%	1.4	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	1.8%	5.62	4.36	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aneurys Zabala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	26.4%	12.0%	2.8%	—	4.49	25.7%	13.7%	42	+0.18	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	84
Greg Holland R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	29	SU	3.21	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.24	1.97	268	83
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	81
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	81
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	81
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	79
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	79
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	79
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	279	78
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Blake Parker R 2016 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.73	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.52	2.52	339	77
Oliver Drake R 2016 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	29.7%	10.9%	2.9%	.289	3.25	28.4%	20.1%	183	-0.32	2.26	317	77
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	76
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	76
Kirby Yates R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	26.4%	9.6%	1.8%	.310	2.13	38.5%	32.2%	180	-0.98	0.66	487	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	76
Zach McAllister R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	29	SU	3.70	26.5%	8.4%	3.2%	.292	4.70	21.4%	16.7%	57	+1.00	2.82	363	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	26.1%	12.0%	1.13	4.36
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63