Carlos Luna prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Carlos Luna P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 208 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%20.8%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	9	8	56	224	49	10	1	89%	6.2	14.9%	5.6%	9.3%	0.6%	1.46	2.89	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers	9	8	56	224	49	10	1	89%	6.2	21.9%	4.5%	17.4%	0.4%	1.46	2.11	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	11	4	29	120	22	7	2	36%	2.7	12.5%	7.3%	5.2%	2.3%	3.38	4.25	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	11	4	29	120	22	7	2	36%	2.7	18.3%	5.8%	12.5%	1.7%	3.38	3.20	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	1	1	5	19	5	1	0	100%	5.0	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	0.0%	1.80	1.54	—
2019	22	AAA RAW	San Antonio Missions	1	1	5	19	5	1	0	100%	5.0	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	0.0%	1.80	1.70	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	70	266	74	10	9	73%	4.6	21.8%	4.2%	17.6%	4.0%	2.33	3.98	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	11	70	266	74	10	9	73%	4.6	27.8%	3.8%	24.1%	3.4%	2.33	3.09	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	28	14	109	482	111	38	17	50%	3.9	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	4.2%	5.35	4.92	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	28	14	109	482	111	38	17	50%	3.9	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	3.5%	5.35	4.13	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	99	440	100	27	32	68%	4.0	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	7.1%	6.36	6.20	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	99	440	100	27	32	68%	4.0	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	7.1%	6.36	6.20	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	99	440	100	27	32	68%	4.0	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	7.3%	6.36	6.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	7.5%	13.3%	3.3%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	61	259	54	21	9	100%	6.8	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.59	4.66	+0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	57	242	50	20	9	100%	6.4	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	3.7%	4.73	4.84	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIN	3	3	19	80	17	6	3	100%	6.3	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.59	4.66	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	29	122	25	10	5	100%	7.2	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	3.7%	4.73	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	49	205	42	17	7	100%	6.9	20.6%	8.3%	12.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.39	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	173	70	29	100%	6.7	20.6%	8.3%	12.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		89	55	368	1551	284	103	66	62%	4.1	18.3%	6.7%	11.6%	4.3%	4.26	4.74	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	30	200	843	154	56	36	62%	4.1	18.3%	6.7%	11.6%	4.3%	4.26	4.74	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Luna (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.8%	7.5%	3.3%	—	4.75	20.7%	12.4%	118	+0.25	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	82
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	73
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	71
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	71
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	69
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	69
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	69
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	69
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	68
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	647	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	68
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	67
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	66
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	66
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	66
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	66
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	65
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	65
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	20.7%	8.0%	1.35	4.60
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40