Carlos Luna
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 208 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%22.6%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers | 9 | 8 | 56 | 224 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 89% | 6.2 | 14.9% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 0.6% | 1.46 | 2.89 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers | 9 | 8 | 56 | 224 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 89% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 4.5% | 17.4% | 0.4% | 1.46 | 2.11 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 11 | 4 | 29 | 120 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 36% | 2.7 | 12.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 3.38 | 4.25 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 11 | 4 | 29 | 120 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 36% | 2.7 | 18.3% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 1.7% | 3.38 | 3.20 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | San Antonio Missions | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.3% | 5.3% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.54 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | San Antonio Missions | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.3% | 5.3% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.70 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 70 | 266 | 74 | 10 | 9 | 73% | 4.6 | 21.8% | 4.2% | 17.6% | 3.9% | 2.33 | 3.93 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 70 | 266 | 74 | 10 | 9 | 73% | 4.6 | 27.8% | 3.8% | 24.1% | 3.4% | 2.33 | 3.09 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 28 | 14 | 109 | 482 | 111 | 38 | 17 | 50% | 3.9 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 5.35 | 4.89 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 28 | 14 | 109 | 482 | 111 | 38 | 17 | 50% | 3.9 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 4.13 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 99 | 440 | 100 | 27 | 32 | 68% | 4.0 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 6.36 | 5.59 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 99 | 440 | 100 | 27 | 32 | 68% | 4.0 | 22.7% | 6.1% | 16.6% | 7.3% | 6.36 | 6.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 65 | 275 | 62 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 61 | 259 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.8 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 57 | 242 | 53 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 53 | 223 | 48 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 7.2 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 34 | 144 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 83 | 350 | 77 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 6.9 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.46 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 30 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 80 | 31 | 100% | 6.7 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 89 | 55 | 368 | 1551 | 284 | 103 | 61 | 62% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 4.26 | 4.55 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 30 | 200 | 843 | 154 | 56 | 33 | 62% | 4.1 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 4.26 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Luna (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.79 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 171 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 82 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 81 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 79 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 77 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 76 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 74 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 73 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 73 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 71 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 69 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 68 |
| Aaron Brooks R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | .281 | 4.30 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 70 | -0.48 | 3.61 | 879 | 68 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 68 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 67 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.14 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .267 | 5.12 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 234 | +0.98 | 3.19 | 678 | 67 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 67 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 66 |
| Jason Berken R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 66 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 1.36 | 4.62 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |