Gerson Garabito — OGILVIE

Gerson Garabito P Nashville Sounds

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.82

FIP4.98

K%20.2%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF7070

CTRL6060

CMD4550

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.388

SL (22%)

SI (17%)

CU (24%)

CH-1.3 (15%)

FB-2.5 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	14	11	57	245	42	19	2	79%	4.1	11.7%	9.7%	2.0%	1.1%	4.11	3.97	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	14	11	57	245	42	19	2	79%	4.1	17.1%	7.8%	9.4%	0.8%	4.11	3.08	—
2016	20	A MLE	Lexington Legends	18	18	81	355	61	35	9	100%	4.5	12.7%	11.6%	1.1%	2.5%	4.80	4.87	—
2016	20	A RAW	Lexington Legends	18	18	81	355	61	35	9	100%	4.5	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	2.5%	4.80	4.34	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	80	320	74	20	9	100%	4.7	17.4%	7.3%	10.1%	3.2%	2.92	4.31	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	80	320	74	20	9	100%	4.7	23.1%	6.2%	16.9%	2.8%	2.92	3.46	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	142	599	116	73	12	100%	5.5	14.9%	14.0%	0.9%	3.2%	3.16	5.40	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	142	599	116	73	12	100%	5.5	19.4%	12.2%	7.2%	2.0%	3.16	4.10	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	141	628	113	59	13	100%	5.4	14.6%	10.3%	4.2%	2.8%	3.77	4.69	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	26	26	141	628	113	59	13	100%	5.4	18.0%	9.4%	8.6%	2.1%	3.77	3.95	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	12	86	377	80	40	10	48%	3.4	17.9%	11.3%	6.5%	3.1%	4.50	4.72	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	12	86	377	80	40	10	48%	3.4	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.7%	4.50	4.15	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	86	360	84	26	10	41%	2.7	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	3.2%	3.77	4.01	+0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	13	86	360	84	26	10	41%	2.7	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	3.2%	3.77	4.01	+0.5
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	13	86	360	84	26	10	41%	2.7	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	2.8%	3.77	3.57	+1.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	40	189	36	19	9	77%	3.1	15.7%	10.9%	4.8%	6.5%	8.62	6.73	-0.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	40	189	36	19	9	77%	3.1	15.7%	10.9%	4.8%	6.5%	8.62	6.73	-0.8
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	40	189	36	19	9	77%	3.1	19.0%	10.1%	9.0%	4.8%	8.62	5.67	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	2	34	156	30	13	5	10%	1.6	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	3.2%	5.77	4.38	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	25	4	45	197	40	18	4	16%	1.8	15.0%	8.6%	6.4%	1.9%	4.80	3.95	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	25	4	45	197	40	18	4	16%	1.8	15.0%	8.6%	6.4%	1.9%	4.80	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	ROK RAW	MIL	4	1	5	20	8	1	1	25%	1.3	40.0%	5.0%	35.0%	5.0%	3.38	3.10	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	MIL	21	3	40	177	32	17	3	14%	1.9	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	1.7%	4.99	3.72	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.2%	12.0%	3.9%	4.82	4.98	-0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	51	222	45	20	5	—	—	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	2.2%	4.80	4.07	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	151	639	125	55	26	100%	6.1	19.6%	8.6%	11.1%	4.1%	4.98	5.14	-0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	140	591	112	53	25	100%	6.1	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	4.2%	5.16	5.33	-0.7
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	56	236	46	20	10	100%	6.2	19.6%	8.6%	11.1%	4.1%	4.98	5.14	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	77	325	62	29	14	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	4.2%	5.16	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	24	168	719	139	62	28	55%	3.8	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	4.0%	5.22	4.74	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		52	29	200	858	166	74	33	55%	3.8	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	4.0%	5.22	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		196	137	758	3270	508	342	98	70%	3.9	15.5%	10.5%	5.1%	3.0%	4.10	4.75	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	863	134	90	26	70%	3.9	15.5%	10.5%	5.1%	3.0%	4.10	4.75	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerson Garabito (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	20.2%	8.2%	3.9%	—	5.23	19.3%	10.6%	291	+0.25	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	71
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	676	69
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	65
Tyler Cloyd R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP-	4.51	16.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.293	4.99	17.2%	9.8%	170	+0.48	3.89	250	64
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	64
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	355	64
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	64
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	63
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	63
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	62
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	62
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	62
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	62
Chris Mazza R 2020 · 3.94 FIP	30	SP-	3.94	21.3%	11.0%	2.3%	.348	3.95	21.4%	13.5%	111	+0.01	3.29	563	61
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	60
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	60
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	151	19.6%	8.5%	1.58	4.98
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75