Gerson Garabito
P
Round Rock Express
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 220 lbs
AAA
ERA4.91
FIP5.00
xFIP3.42
SIERA3.21
K%20.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%10.9%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†4545
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.388
SL (22%)
SI (17%)
CU (24%)
CH-1.3 (15%)
FB-2.5 (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Royals | 14 | 11 | 57 | 245 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 11.7% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 4.11 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | 18 | 18 | 81 | 355 | 61 | 35 | 9 | 12.7% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.80 | 4.82 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 17 | 17 | 80 | 320 | 74 | 20 | 9 | 17.4% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 2.92 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 116 | 73 | 12 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 3.16 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 26 | 26 | 141 | 628 | 113 | 59 | 13 | 14.6% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 25 | 12 | 86 | 377 | 80 | 40 | 10 | 17.9% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.73 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 13 | 86 | 360 | 84 | 26 | 10 | 20.6% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 3.77 | 4.04 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 13 | 10 | 40 | 189 | 36 | 19 | 9 | 16.6% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 8.62 | 6.95 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 5.33 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 27 | 16 | 6 | 18.1% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 5.64 | 5.74 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 20 | 14 | 5 | 16.0% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 5.80 | 5.90 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 171 | 133 | 713 | 3073 | 483 | 330 | 95 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.82 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 37 | 200 | 862 | 136 | 93 | 27 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.82 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gerson Garabito (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.37 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 3.9% | — | 5.42 | 18.5% | 7.6% | 111 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 87 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 85 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 83 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 80 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 79 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 76 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.95 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 5.0% | .261 | 3.91 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 101 | -2.04 | 2.36 | 309 | 75 |
| Adrian Garza R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 74 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 187 | 73 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 72 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2024 · 5.78 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.78 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 167 | 72 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.