Gerson Garabito
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144134vR 125
ERA5.34
FIP5.55
K%17.9%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.388
SL (22%)
SI (17%)
CU (24%)
CH-1.3 (15%)
FB-2.5 (39%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Royals | 14 | 11 | 57 | 245 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 79% | 4.1 | 11.7% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 4.11 | 3.97 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Royals | 14 | 11 | 57 | 245 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 79% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 0.8% | 4.11 | 3.08 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | 18 | 18 | 81 | 355 | 61 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 12.7% | 11.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 4.80 | 4.61 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | 18 | 18 | 81 | 355 | 61 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.34 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 80 | 320 | 74 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.4% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 2.92 | 4.22 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 80 | 320 | 74 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.1% | 6.2% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 2.92 | 3.46 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 116 | 73 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 3.16 | 6.14 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 116 | 73 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 3.16 | 4.10 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 26 | 26 | 141 | 628 | 113 | 59 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.6% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.77 | 4.88 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 26 | 26 | 141 | 628 | 113 | 59 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 3.77 | 3.95 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 12 | 86 | 377 | 80 | 40 | 10 | 48% | 3.4 | 17.9% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.78 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 12 | 86 | 377 | 80 | 40 | 10 | 48% | 3.4 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.15 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 13 | 86 | 360 | 84 | 26 | 10 | 41% | 2.7 | 20.6% | 7.2% | 13.4% | 3.4% | 3.77 | 4.14 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 13 | 86 | 360 | 84 | 26 | 10 | 41% | 2.7 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.57 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 40 | 189 | 36 | 19 | 9 | 77% | 3.1 | 16.6% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 8.62 | 7.26 | -1.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 40 | 189 | 36 | 19 | 9 | 77% | 3.1 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 8.62 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 13 | 4 | 22 | 101 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 31% | 1.7 | 16.3% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 6.45 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 41 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.55 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIL | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.55 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 76 | 329 | 64 | 35 | 12 | — | — | 19.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 5.66 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 5 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 17.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 212 | 38 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.48 | 5.66 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 196 | 34 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.64 | 5.81 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 7 | 43 | 180 | 30 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.84 | 6.02 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.48 | 5.66 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.64 | 5.81 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.84 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 14 | 113 | 487 | 87 | 51 | 19 | 37% | 3.0 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.69 | 5.08 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 25 | 200 | 864 | 154 | 90 | 34 | 37% | 2.9 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 5.69 | 5.08 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 184 | 137 | 735 | 3174 | 500 | 342 | 107 | 74% | 4.0 | 15.7% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.13 | 4.99 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 37 | 200 | 864 | 136 | 93 | 29 | 74% | 4.0 | 15.7% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.13 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gerson Garabito (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.55 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 4.0% | — | 5.82 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 140 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 70 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 30 | SP- | 6.27 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 5.2% | .321 | 4.78 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 129 | -1.49 | 4.66 | 261 | 68 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 67 |
| Anthony DeSclafani R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.35 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .309 | 3.93 | 21.0% | 15.4% | 286 | -1.42 | 3.41 | 981 | 67 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2025 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 65 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 65 |
| Mat Latos R 2025 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 65 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 65 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.11 | 13.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 518 | 64 |
| Chris Heston R 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 64 |
| Derek Eitel R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 64 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 64 |
| JC Ramírez R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.37 | 12.2% | 10.1% | 3.7% | .309 | 6.58 | 15.7% | 1.7% | 35 | +1.21 | 3.73 | 369 | 64 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 63 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 63 |
| Paul Clemens R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 62 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2028 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 62 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 1.62 | 5.56 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |