Ryan Yarbrough
P
New York Yankees
+0.0
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
MLB
ERA4.37
FIP4.64
xFIP6.26
SIERA5.51
K%19.6%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%12.4%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†3030
FB Velo
p1088.3
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p430.320
FB+0.5 (33%)
CT (25%)
SI (10%)
CH-0.6 (22%)
SL-0.9 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 22 | 22 | 97 | 421 | 88 | 23 | 7 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 4.10 | 3.74 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Jackson Generals | 25 | 25 | 128 | 522 | 99 | 31 | 7 | 15.4% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 2.95 | 3.52 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 26 | 26 | 157 | 645 | 159 | 38 | 20 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 3.43 | 3.83 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 38 | 6 | 147 | 628 | 128 | 44 | 18 | 20.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 4.06 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 18 | 168 | 670 | 152 | 21 | 17 | 22.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 3.07 | +4.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 11 | 9 | 56 | 234 | 44 | 11 | 5 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 3.56 | 3.37 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 30 | 21 | 155 | 653 | 117 | 25 | 25 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 27 | 16 | 108 | 483 | 87 | 34 | 15 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.29 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 29 | 13 | 107 | 444 | 87 | 16 | 15 | 19.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 3.70 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 44 | 0 | 99 | 398 | 65 | 29 | 11 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 3.19 | 4.11 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 22 | 11 | 75 | 306 | 67 | 20 | 14 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.32 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 5 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.62 | — | — |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 38 | 18 | 9 | 14.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 5.03 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 68 | 288 | 42 | 20 | 10 | 14.5% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 37 | 20 | 10 | 13.7% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 33 | 19 | 9 | 12.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 5.15 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 312 | 167 | 1305 | 5438 | 1028 | 304 | 164 | 18.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.87 | +21.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 26 | 200 | 834 | 158 | 47 | 25 | 18.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.87 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Yarbrough (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 14.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | — | 5.27 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 124 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 62 |
| Blaine Hardy L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.10 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 417 | 60 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.89 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 424 | 59 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2024 · 5.66 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.66 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 57 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.59 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 5.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.32 | 182 | 56 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.57 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | .276 | 3.54 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -1.03 | 2.22 | 405 | 55 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 54 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 54 |
| Dana Eveland L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.68 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 52 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 16.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | .182 | 3.44 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 75 | -1.40 | 2.41 | 215 | 51 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.97 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 181 | 51 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.52 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.3% | .322 | 6.33 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +0.81 | 4.17 | 327 | 51 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.24 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 225 | 50 |
| J.P. Howell L 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.97 | 11.5% | 13.5% | 3.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 106 | 50 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 50 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 48 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 48 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.89 | 14.0% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 127 | 47 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | .269 | 2.55 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.29 | 2.19 | 195 | 47 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .253 | 4.63 | 12.2% | 1.8% | 103 | +0.01 | 4.62 | 249 | 47 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.