Ryan Yarbrough — OGILVIE

Ryan Yarbrough P New York Yankees

Age 34 LHP 6'5" / 205 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9098vR 106

ERA3.96

FIP4.42

K%17.0%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1087.4

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1617.2%

xwOBA vs

p800.283

FB+0.5 (30%)

CT (28%)

SI (13%)

CH-0.6 (22%)

SL-0.9 (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	97	421	88	23	7	100%	4.4	16.3%	5.9%	10.4%	2.3%	4.10	3.75	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	97	421	88	23	7	100%	4.4	20.9%	5.5%	15.4%	1.7%	4.10	2.93	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	25	25	128	522	99	31	7	100%	5.1	15.4%	6.5%	8.8%	1.6%	2.95	3.52	—
2016	24	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	25	25	128	522	99	31	7	100%	5.1	19.0%	5.9%	13.0%	1.3%	2.95	2.99	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	26	26	157	645	159	38	20	100%	6.1	21.7%	6.2%	15.5%	3.3%	3.43	3.84	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	26	26	157	645	159	38	20	100%	6.1	24.7%	5.9%	18.8%	3.1%	3.43	3.46	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	38	6	147	628	128	44	18	16%	3.9	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	2.9%	3.91	3.88	+1.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	38	6	147	628	128	44	18	16%	3.9	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	2.9%	3.91	3.85	+1.2
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	18	168	670	152	21	17	55%	5.1	22.1%	3.2%	18.9%	2.6%	4.08	3.06	+3.8
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	18	168	670	152	21	17	55%	5.1	22.7%	3.1%	19.6%	2.5%	4.08	2.98	+4.0
2020	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	11	9	56	234	44	11	5	82%	5.1	18.8%	4.7%	14.1%	2.2%	3.56	3.31	+1.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	11	9	56	234	44	11	5	82%	5.1	18.8%	4.7%	14.1%	2.1%	3.56	3.28	+1.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	30	21	155	653	117	25	25	70%	5.2	17.9%	3.8%	14.1%	3.9%	5.11	4.23	+1.2
2021	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	30	21	155	653	117	25	25	70%	5.2	17.9%	3.8%	14.1%	3.8%	5.11	4.17	+1.3
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	108	483	87	34	15	59%	4.0	17.4%	7.2%	10.2%	3.2%	4.51	4.31	+0.8
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	108	483	87	34	15	59%	4.0	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.24	+0.8
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	13	107	444	87	16	15	45%	3.7	19.1%	3.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.19	3.70	+1.1
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	13	107	444	87	16	15	45%	3.7	19.1%	3.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.19	3.70	+1.1
2023	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	13	107	444	87	16	15	45%	3.7	19.6%	3.6%	16.0%	3.4%	4.19	3.74	+1.0
2024	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	44	0	99	398	65	29	11	0%	2.2	16.3%	7.3%	9.0%	2.8%	3.19	4.16	+0.5
2024	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	44	0	99	398	65	29	11	0%	2.2	16.3%	7.3%	9.0%	2.8%	3.19	4.16	+0.5
2024	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	44	0	99	398	65	29	11	0%	2.2	16.3%	7.3%	9.0%	2.8%	3.19	4.11	+0.5
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	75	306	67	20	14	50%	3.4	20.8%	7.2%	13.6%	4.6%	4.32	4.78	+0.1
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	75	306	67	20	14	50%	3.4	20.8%	7.2%	13.6%	4.6%	4.32	4.78	+0.1
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	11	75	306	67	20	14	50%	3.4	21.9%	6.5%	15.4%	4.6%	4.32	4.54	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			249	77	889	3710	695	203	115	31%	3.6	18.7%	5.5%	13.3%	3.1%	4.19	3.90	+6.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	34	1	57	238	41	21	3	3%	1.7	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	1.2%	3.81	3.41	+0.8
YTD	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	34	1	57	238	41	21	3	3%	1.7	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	1.2%	3.81	3.41	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	MLB RAW	NYY	34	1	57	238	41	21	3	3%	1.7	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	1.3%	3.81	3.45	+0.7
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	NYY	34	1	57	238	41	21	3	3%	1.7	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	1.3%	3.81	3.45	+0.7
ROS	34	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	26	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	3.2%	3.96	4.42	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	3.2%	3.96	4.42	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	63	264	45	23	4	—	—	17.2%	8.7%	8.5%	1.5%	3.83	3.51	+0.8
FULL	34	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	63	265	45	23	4	—	—	17.1%	8.7%	8.5%	1.4%	3.83	3.55	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	NYY	58	0	61	258	41	21	8	0%	1.1	16.0%	8.2%	7.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.88	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	54	228	34	20	8	0%	1.0	14.9%	8.8%	6.1%	3.5%	4.97	5.25	-0.4
2027	35	MLB CTX	NYY	58	0	61	258	41	21	8	0%	1.1	16.0%	8.2%	7.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.88	-0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	NYY	51	0	54	228	34	20	8	0%	1.1	14.9%	8.8%	6.1%	3.5%	4.97	5.25	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		365	77	1010	4222	775	246	132	21%	2.8	18.3%	5.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.26	4.00	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		72	15	200	836	153	49	26	21%	2.8	18.3%	5.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.26	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		341	168	1353	5642	1064	323	163	49%	4.0	18.9%	5.7%	13.1%	2.9%	3.96	3.82	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	25	200	834	157	48	24	49%	4.0	18.9%	5.7%	13.1%	2.9%	3.96	3.82	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Yarbrough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	16.7%	6.9%	3.5%	—	5.05	15.5%	7.0%	115	+0.19	—	—	—
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	63
Blaine Hardy L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	34	SW	5.14	19.5%	10.5%	4.3%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	417	62
Vidal Nuño L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	34	SW	4.88	16.0%	4.9%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	424	61
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	58
Wade LeBlanc L 2019 · 5.32 FIP	34	SW	5.32	17.3%	5.6%	5.4%	.306	4.89	15.4%	8.4%	106	-0.43	3.65	609	54
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	54
Chris Narveson L 2016 · 4.59 FIP	34	SP-	4.59	16.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.253	4.59	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.00	4.59	249	53
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	49
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	48
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	46
Gio Gonzalez L 2020 · 4.91 FIP	34	SW	4.91	22.2%	12.4%	3.9%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	864	46
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	44
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.24	15.2%	-1.2%	26	+0.89	2.97	294	42
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	42
Yohan Flande L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	10.0%	11.9%	0.8%	.386	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	335	41
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	40
Jonathon Niese L 2019 · 5.67 FIP	32	SP	5.67	10.9%	8.2%	4.5%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	368	40
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	40
Tomas Solis L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	34	SP	5.48	11.3%	7.9%	4.2%	.322	6.44	8.9%	1.4%	57	+0.96	4.20	327	38
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	37

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	15.9%	7.9%	1.30	4.62
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45