Gabe Speier
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 31
LHP
5'11" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.0 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7079vR 89
ERA3.09
FIP2.98
K%27.0%
BB%5.3%
K-BB%21.7%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p2621.9%
K%
p2418.4%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
FB (70%)
SI (31%)
SL-0.6 (30%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 33 | 0 | 44 | 181 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 2.86 | 2.85 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 33 | 0 | 44 | 181 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 2.86 | 2.28 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 1.4% | 2.62 | 3.76 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 2.62 | 3.12 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | 36 | 4 | 69 | 308 | 50 | 30 | 4 | 11% | 1.9 | 13.1% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.30 | 4.23 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | 36 | 4 | 69 | 308 | 50 | 30 | 4 | 11% | 1.9 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 4.30 | 3.71 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 46 | 0 | 61 | 276 | 48 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 3.39 | 3.57 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 46 | 0 | 61 | 276 | 48 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.4% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 1.1% | 3.39 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 83 | 28 | 14 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 4.78 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 0 | 70 | 310 | 83 | 28 | 14 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 9.0% | 17.7% | 4.5% | 4.78 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 8 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 7.94 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 8 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 7.94 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 62 | 7 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 3.8% | 22.4% | 2.7% | 2.72 | 2.87 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 62 | 7 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 3.1% | 24.6% | 2.2% | 2.72 | 2.38 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 1 | 47 | 226 | 50 | 16 | 13 | 2% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 9.19 | 6.00 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 1 | 47 | 226 | 50 | 16 | 13 | 2% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 7.1% | 15.0% | 5.8% | 9.19 | 5.59 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 69 | 0 | 55 | 216 | 64 | 7 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.6% | 3.2% | 26.4% | 3.4% | 3.79 | 2.88 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 69 | 0 | 55 | 216 | 64 | 7 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.6% | 3.2% | 26.4% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 2.81 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 1 | 40 | 167 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 2% | 0.9 | 25.6% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 1.3% | 4.08 | 3.06 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 1 | 40 | 167 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 2% | 0.9 | 25.7% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 4.08 | 2.95 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 76 | 0 | 62 | 243 | 82 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 33.7% | 4.1% | 29.6% | 2.2% | 2.61 | 1.96 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 76 | 0 | 62 | 243 | 82 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 33.7% | 4.1% | 29.6% | 2.1% | 2.61 | 1.99 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 32 | 1 | 26 | 112 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 3% | 0.8 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 3.08 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SEA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 5.3% | 21.7% | 2.7% | 3.09 | 2.98 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SEA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 5.3% | 21.7% | 2.6% | 3.05 | 2.94 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 62 | 264 | 64 | 16 | 9 | — | — | 24.3% | 6.1% | 18.2% | 3.5% | 3.08 | 3.46 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 60 | 255 | 64 | 16 | 9 | — | — | 25.2% | 6.3% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 3.16 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 65 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 5.7% | 21.6% | 3.0% | 3.46 | 3.52 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 57 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 3.2% | 3.67 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 44 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 50 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 6.7% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 3.93 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 61 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 5.7% | 21.6% | 2.9% | 3.42 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 55 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 3.2% | 3.63 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 45 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 6.7% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 3.88 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 417 | 1 | 385 | 1600 | 436 | 98 | 45 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.2% | 6.1% | 21.1% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 3.13 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 217 | 1 | 200 | 831 | 227 | 51 | 23 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.2% | 6.1% | 21.1% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 3.13 | +5.3 | ||
| Career | — | 540 | 7 | 590 | 2538 | 531 | 191 | 67 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.74 | +11.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 2 | 200 | 860 | 180 | 65 | 23 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabe Speier (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.87 | 31.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% | — | 3.79 | 26.5% | 20.4% | 154 | +0.92 | — | — | — |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.14 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 455 | 76 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2028 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.78 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.16 | 1.56 | 219 | 75 |
| Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 72 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 71 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 70 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.44 | 30.5% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .207 | 3.84 | 28.5% | 17.9% | 32 | +1.40 | 2.44 | 113 | 68 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 67 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 67 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.95 | 20.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 101 | 65 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.74 | 19.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.09 | 27.2% | 20.5% | 162 | +0.35 | 2.22 | 487 | 65 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2027 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 65 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 65 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.47 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.81 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.34 | 2.37 | 296 | 65 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 23.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | .314 | 5.45 | 12.1% | -0.6% | 33 | +2.37 | 1.96 | 191 | 64 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 64 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.09 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.53 | 2.48 | 420 | 64 |
| Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .364 | 2.51 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.69 | 2.07 | 363 | 63 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 63 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2029 · 2.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.56 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.34 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.78 | 2.56 | 109 | 62 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 27.9% | 5.7% | 1.19 | 3.48 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Richard Rodríguez ('21) | 4 | 56 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 3.00 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Chris Devenski ('24) | 6 | 62 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 3.61 |
| Seunghwan Oh ('18) | 3 | 69 | 27.7% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 2.78 |