Gabe Speier — OGILVIE

Gabe Speier P Seattle Mariners

+0.5 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 31 LHP 5'11" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.8 · 2027

ERA3.33

FIP3.12

xFIP4.23

SIERA3.55

K%29.8%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%23.3%

IP46

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2027

K†6565

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p8630.9%

p9033.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.247

FB (64%)

SI (32%)

SL-0.6 (36%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	20	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	33	0	44	181	36	12	0	14.7%	7.8%	0.0%	2.86	2.85	+1.0
2016	21	AA	Mobile BayBears	39	0	58	245	49	20	3	14.9%	9.1%	1.5%	2.62	3.83	+0.7
2017	22	AA	Jackson Generals	36	4	69	308	50	30	4	13.1%	10.7%	1.6%	4.30	4.21	+0.6
2018	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	46	0	61	276	48	19	3	14.1%	7.6%	1.3%	3.39	3.58	+1.0
2019	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	56	0	70	310	83	28	14	22.5%	8.5%	4.8%	4.78	4.93	+0.1
2020	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	8	0	6	30	6	4	1	—	—	—	7.94	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	52	0	53	224	62	7	5	26.3%	3.8%	2.8%	2.72	2.91	+1.2
2022	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	48	1	47	226	50	16	13	19.8%	7.5%	6.4%	9.19	5.90	-0.5
2023	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	69	0	55	216	64	7	7	29.6%	3.2%	3.3%	3.79	2.80	+1.3
2024	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	45	1	40	167	43	18	2	25.6%	11.2%	1.3%	4.08	3.04	+0.9
2025	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	76	0	62	243	82	10	5	33.7%	4.1%	2.0%	2.61	1.87	+2.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	8	0	7	28	6	0	0	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	SEA	16	—	16	68	20	4	2	29.6%	6.5%	2.6%	3.21	3.24	+0.3
2026 Total	31	MLB	SEA	—	—	23	96	26	4	2	27.2%	4.6%	1.9%	3.02	2.26	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	SEA	44	—	44	187	52	12	5	28.0%	6.2%	2.6%	3.25	3.31	+0.8
2028	33	MLB	SEA	42	—	42	179	49	11	5	27.3%	6.3%	2.7%	3.36	3.44	+0.7
2029	34	MLB	SEA	40	—	40	170	45	11	5	26.6%	6.5%	2.8%	3.49	3.57	+0.6
2030	35	MLB	SEA	38	—	38	160	41	11	5	25.9%	6.8%	2.9%	3.63	3.73	+0.5
2031	36	MLB	SEA	36	—	36	150	38	11	4	25.1%	7.0%	3.0%	3.79	3.89	+0.4
2032	37	MLB	SEA	33	—	33	139	34	10	4	24.3%	7.3%	3.1%	3.95	4.06	+0.3
2033	38	MLB	SEA	30	—	30	128	30	10	4	23.4%	7.6%	3.3%	4.13	4.25	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			516	6	571	2454	517	182	63	21.1%	7.4%	2.6%	4.00	3.67	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—			181	2	200	860	181	64	22	21.1%	7.4%	2.6%	4.00	3.67	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabe Speier (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.24	29.6%	6.5%	2.6%	—	3.44	27.3%	21.0%	127	+0.20	—	—	—
Oliver Pérez L 2028 · 2.76 FIP	33	SU	2.76	27.9%	7.1%	2.0%	.304	2.62	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.14	1.56	219	72
Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.68 FIP	32	SW	2.68	28.7%	6.5%	2.2%	.267	4.36	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.68	2.19	195	68
Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.64 FIP	31	SU	2.64	30.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.207	3.79	28.5%	17.9%	32	+1.15	2.64	113	68
Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SW	3.00	25.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	455	68
Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.79	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.23	3.42	152	65
Jerry Blevins L 2027 · 2.66 FIP	32	SU	2.66	29.2%	6.7%	2.1%	.291	3.68	26.9%	16.5%	124	+1.02	2.66	166	64
Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP	31	SU	3.62	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	113	63
Aroldis Chapman L 2026 · 2.07 FIP	31	SW	2.07	36.2%	10.6%	1.2%	.287	3.93	34.8%	18.9%	93	+1.86	1.25	557	60
Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 2.89 FIP	31	SU	2.89	20.6%	3.4%	2.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	101	60
Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.20 FIP	31	SW	3.20	23.8%	4.7%	2.8%	.314	5.56	12.1%	-0.6%	33	+2.36	1.88	191	59
Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.59 FIP	31	SU	3.59	25.2%	8.6%	2.8%	.269	4.82	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.23	2.37	296	59
Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.62	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.70	181	59
Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP	30	SW	3.39	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.98	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.81	421	58
Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP	31	SU	3.49	26.5%	10.8%	2.3%	.290	4.06	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.57	2.43	420	58
Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.15 FIP	30	SU	3.15	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.52	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.63	2.07	363	57
Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 2.66 FIP	31	SW	2.66	19.0%	2.4%	1.6%	.278	3.08	27.2%	20.5%	162	+0.42	2.22	459	57
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2029 · 2.57 FIP	34	SU	2.57	24.2%	9.2%	0.6%	.307	3.31	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.74	2.57	109	56
Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.27 FIP	31	SW	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.37	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.10	2.32	455	55
Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	31	SW	3.70	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	223	55
Joe Mantiply L 2026 · 2.75 FIP	31	SW	2.75	25.1%	2.5%	2.7%	.312	3.56	19.8%	15.3%	148	+0.81	2.06	460	54

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2019

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$0.0M