Gabe Speier — OGILVIE

Gabe Speier P Seattle Mariners

Age 31 LHP 5'11" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7684vR 92

ERA3.08

FIP2.95

K%27.2%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%21.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD7575

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

FB (73%)

SI (34%)

SL-0.6 (27%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2019

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.0M
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.2M		$3M	-$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	33	0	44	181	36	12	0	0%	1.3	14.7%	7.8%	6.9%	0.0%	2.86	2.85	—
2015	20	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	33	0	44	181	36	12	0	0%	1.3	19.9%	6.6%	13.3%	0.0%	2.86	2.28	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	58	245	49	20	3	0%	1.5	14.9%	9.1%	5.8%	1.5%	2.62	3.81	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	39	0	58	245	49	20	3	0%	1.5	20.0%	8.2%	11.8%	1.2%	2.62	3.12	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	36	4	69	308	50	30	4	11%	1.9	13.1%	10.7%	2.4%	1.6%	4.30	4.22	—
2017	22	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	36	4	69	308	50	30	4	11%	1.9	16.2%	9.7%	6.5%	1.3%	4.30	3.71	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	46	0	61	276	48	19	3	0%	1.3	14.1%	7.6%	6.5%	1.3%	3.39	3.58	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	46	0	61	276	48	19	3	0%	1.3	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	1.1%	3.39	3.10	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	0	70	310	83	28	14	0%	1.2	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	4.8%	4.78	4.94	-0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	0	70	310	83	28	14	0%	1.2	26.8%	9.0%	17.7%	4.5%	4.78	4.54	+0.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	8	0	6	30	6	4	1	0%	0.7	20.0%	13.3%	6.7%	3.3%	7.94	4.93	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	8	0	6	30	6	4	1	0%	0.7	20.0%	13.3%	6.7%	3.3%	7.94	5.39	-0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	53	224	62	7	5	0%	1.0	26.3%	3.8%	22.4%	2.8%	2.72	2.91	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	53	224	62	7	5	0%	1.0	27.7%	3.1%	24.6%	2.2%	2.72	2.38	+1.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	1	47	226	50	16	13	2%	1.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.3%	6.5%	9.19	5.95	-0.8
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	1	47	226	50	16	13	2%	1.0	22.1%	7.1%	15.0%	5.8%	9.19	5.59	-0.6
2023	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	69	0	55	216	64	7	7	0%	0.8	29.6%	3.2%	26.4%	3.3%	3.79	2.83	+1.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	69	0	55	216	64	7	7	0%	0.8	29.6%	3.2%	26.4%	3.3%	3.79	2.83	+1.1
2023	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	69	0	55	216	64	7	7	0%	0.8	29.6%	3.2%	26.4%	3.2%	3.79	2.81	+1.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	1	40	167	43	18	2	2%	0.9	25.3%	10.7%	14.6%	1.3%	4.08	3.01	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	1	40	167	43	18	2	2%	0.9	25.3%	10.7%	14.6%	1.3%	4.08	3.01	+0.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	1	40	167	43	18	2	2%	0.9	25.7%	10.8%	15.0%	1.2%	4.08	2.95	+0.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	76	0	62	243	82	10	5	0%	0.8	33.7%	4.1%	29.6%	2.1%	2.61	1.93	+2.0
2025	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	76	0	62	243	82	10	5	0%	0.8	33.7%	4.1%	29.6%	2.1%	2.61	1.93	+2.0
2025	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	76	0	62	243	82	10	5	0%	0.8	33.7%	4.1%	29.6%	2.1%	2.61	1.99	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			263	1	222	906	252	57	24	0%	0.8	27.8%	6.3%	21.5%	2.6%	3.45	3.01	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	50	1	43	179	42	12	7	2%	0.9	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	3.0%	3.12	3.76	+0.4
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	50	1	43	179	42	12	7	2%	0.9	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	3.0%	3.12	3.76	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	A+ RAW	SEA	1	1	1	6	2	0	2	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	27.00	18.58	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	SEA	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	SEA	48	0	41	170	38	12	5	0%	0.9	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	2.9%	2.61	3.72	+0.4
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	SEA	48	0	41	170	38	12	5	0%	0.9	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	2.9%	2.61	3.72	+0.4
ROS	31	MLB MLE	SEA	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	27.2%	5.4%	21.8%	2.7%	3.08	2.95	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	SEA	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	27.2%	5.4%	21.8%	2.6%	3.05	2.92	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	48	200	48	13	8	—	—	23.9%	6.6%	17.3%	3.8%	3.11	3.68	+0.5
FULL	31	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	46	196	48	13	8	—	—	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	3.9%	3.24	4.01	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	56	236	65	14	7	0%	1.1	27.4%	5.8%	21.6%	3.0%	3.48	3.53	+0.7
2028	33	MLB MLE	SEA	49	0	51	217	57	14	7	0%	1.0	26.5%	6.2%	20.2%	3.2%	3.68	3.81	+0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	53	224	61	13	6	0%	1.1	27.4%	5.8%	21.6%	2.9%	3.44	3.49	+0.7
2028	33	MLB CTX	SEA	47	0	49	207	55	13	7	0%	1.0	26.5%	6.2%	20.2%	3.2%	3.64	3.77	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		365	1	329	1357	374	84	38	0%	0.9	27.5%	6.2%	21.3%	2.8%	3.47	3.08	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		222	1	200	826	228	51	23	0%	0.9	27.5%	6.2%	21.3%	2.8%	3.47	3.08	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		558	7	607	2605	550	194	69	1%	1.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	2.6%	3.96	3.71	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		184	2	200	858	181	64	23	1%	1.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	2.6%	3.96	3.71	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabe Speier (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.86	31.4%	4.6%	2.6%	—	3.66	26.9%	20.9%	107	+0.80	—	—	—
Oliver Pérez L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	27.9%	7.1%	2.2%	.304	2.63	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.25	1.58	219	75
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	72
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	152	72
Boone Logan L 2016 · 2.58 FIP	31	SU	2.58	30.5%	8.0%	1.9%	.207	3.74	28.5%	17.9%	32	+1.16	2.58	113	71
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	69
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	69
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	69
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	68
Brett Cecil L 2017 · 3.17 FIP	31	SU	3.17	23.8%	4.7%	2.7%	.314	5.57	12.1%	-0.6%	33	+2.40	1.96	191	67
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	67
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.36	455	66
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	66
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	66
Jerry Blevins L 2016 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	29.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.291	3.66	26.9%	16.5%	124	+0.94	2.71	166	65
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	65
Aroldis Chapman L 2019 · 2.05 FIP	31	SU	2.05	36.2%	10.6%	1.2%	.287	3.83	34.8%	18.9%	93	+1.78	1.22	607	65
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	64
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	64
Caleb Thielbar L 2018 · 2.68 FIP	31	SU	2.68	19.0%	2.4%	1.6%	.278	3.01	27.2%	20.5%	162	+0.33	2.22	505	64
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2015 · 2.58 FIP	34	SU	2.58	24.2%	9.2%	0.7%	.307	3.30	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.72	2.58	109	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	28.6%	5.5%	1.13	3.36
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Roberto Osuna ('19)	1.6	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75