Tyler Alexander
P
Texas Rangers
Age 32
LHP
6'1" / 214 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7584vR 93
ERA3.64
FIP3.62
K%20.1%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1291.8
Whiff%
p2321.5%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p900.274
FB+1.2 (35%)
CT+0.5 (24%)
SI (21%)
SL (16%)
CH (25%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 136 | 545 | 105 | 20 | 11 | 96% | 5.5 | 15.0% | 4.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 2.44 | 3.44 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 136 | 545 | 105 | 20 | 11 | 96% | 5.5 | 19.3% | 3.7% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 2.44 | 3.05 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 26 | 138 | 614 | 120 | 22 | 20 | 96% | 5.1 | 15.8% | 3.9% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 3.68 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 26 | 138 | 614 | 120 | 22 | 20 | 96% | 5.1 | 19.5% | 3.6% | 16.0% | 3.3% | 5.07 | 3.72 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 140 | 611 | 95 | 22 | 16 | 92% | 5.4 | 13.3% | 3.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.21 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 140 | 611 | 95 | 22 | 16 | 92% | 5.4 | 15.5% | 3.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 3.70 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 24 | 152 | 668 | 155 | 30 | 27 | 73% | 4.6 | 21.3% | 4.7% | 16.6% | 5.3% | 5.03 | 4.80 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 24 | 152 | 668 | 155 | 30 | 27 | 73% | 4.6 | 23.2% | 4.5% | 18.7% | 4.0% | 5.03 | 3.96 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 14 | 2 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 9 | 8 | 14% | 2.6 | 22.4% | 5.9% | 16.4% | 5.8% | 3.96 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 14 | 2 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 9 | 8 | 14% | 2.6 | 22.4% | 5.9% | 16.4% | 5.3% | 3.96 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 41 | 15 | 106 | 451 | 87 | 28 | 16 | 37% | 2.6 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 3.81 | 4.39 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 41 | 15 | 106 | 451 | 87 | 28 | 16 | 37% | 2.6 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 3.81 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 18 | 110 | 468 | 69 | 25 | 19 | 56% | 3.4 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 5.07 | 5.13 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 18 | 110 | 468 | 69 | 25 | 19 | 56% | 3.4 | 14.7% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 5.07 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 1 | 44 | 181 | 44 | 5 | 8 | 4% | 1.8 | 24.3% | 2.8% | 21.5% | 4.8% | 4.50 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 1 | 44 | 181 | 44 | 5 | 8 | 4% | 1.8 | 24.3% | 2.8% | 21.5% | 4.4% | 4.50 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 143 | 606 | 123 | 29 | 28 | 47% | 4.8 | 19.6% | 4.8% | 14.8% | 4.8% | 4.96 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 14 | 143 | 606 | 123 | 29 | 28 | 47% | 4.8 | 20.3% | 4.8% | 15.5% | 4.6% | 4.96 | 4.53 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 52 | 5 | 98 | 423 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 10% | 1.9 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | 4.98 | 3.34 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 52 | 5 | 98 | 423 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 10% | 1.9 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | 4.98 | 3.39 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 42 | 3 | 41 | 171 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 7% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 6.4% | 15.8% | 1.2% | 2.21 | 2.68 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TEX | 44 | 0 | 47 | 196 | 39 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 3.64 | 3.62 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TEX | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 40 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 3.64 | 3.62 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 87 | 367 | 77 | 22 | 7 | — | — | 21.1% | 6.1% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 2.98 | 3.18 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 87 | 368 | 77 | 22 | 7 | — | — | 21.0% | 6.1% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 2.98 | 3.18 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 76 | 0 | 80 | 338 | 64 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 69 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 61 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 76 | 0 | 80 | 338 | 64 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 70 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 62 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 427 | 60 | 787 | 3337 | 648 | 183 | 118 | 14% | 1.8 | 19.4% | 5.5% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 4.37 | 4.10 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 15 | 200 | 848 | 165 | 47 | 30 | 14% | 1.8 | 19.4% | 5.5% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 4.37 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 347 | 156 | 1145 | 4890 | 873 | 235 | 178 | 45% | 3.3 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.20 | +16.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 27 | 200 | 854 | 152 | 41 | 31 | 45% | 3.3 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Alexander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 18.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.33 | 19.4% | 13.3% | 153 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 63 |
| Chris Narveson L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 61 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2024 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 153 | 61 |
| Travis Blackley L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 59 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 59 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 4.5% | .324 | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 92 | -1.13 | 2.83 | 225 | 58 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.76 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 540 | 57 |
| Rich Hill L 2029 · 3.25 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.25 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .239 | 3.22 | 29.0% | 21.2% | 379 | -0.03 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 57 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .232 | 4.49 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 202 | +0.81 | 3.68 | 549 | 55 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 54 |
| Chris Rusin L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.01 | 12.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .329 | 7.12 | 12.7% | 3.5% | 32 | +3.11 | 2.80 | 488 | 54 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.87 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .366 | 6.95 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +3.08 | 3.87 | 341 | 53 |
| Greg Smith L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.36 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 120 | 52 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.51 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 241 | 52 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.48 | 13.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | .323 | 3.97 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 61 | -0.51 | 3.97 | 280 | 51 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 51 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 4.9% | .288 | 3.82 | 25.2% | 15.4% | 175 | -1.67 | 2.82 | 845 | 50 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.90 | 13.4% | 9.2% | 1.4% | .330 | 4.42 | 16.1% | 8.6% | 401 | +0.52 | 3.58 | 574 | 50 |
| Sean Nolin L 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.59 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .316 | 5.87 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.62 | 309 | 50 |
| Matt Dermody L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.23 | 17.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 3.91 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 49 | -0.32 | 2.34 | 348 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 80 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.22 | 4.31 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Scott Feldman ('17) | 3 | 99 | 16.7% | 6.4% | 1.33 | 4.25 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |