Tyler Alexander
P
Texas Rangers
+0.6
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'1" / 214 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.56
FIP4.31
xFIP3.59
SIERA3.20
K%20.1%
BB%5.9%
K-BB%14.2%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†4045
FB Velo
p1091.0
Whiff%
p1014.3%
K%
p4721.8%
xwOBA vs
p900.241
FB+1.2 (36%)
CT+0.5 (26%)
SI (28%)
SL (16%)
CH (22%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 25 | 24 | 136 | 545 | 105 | 20 | 11 | 15.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.44 | 3.56 | +2.7 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 26 | 138 | 614 | 120 | 22 | 20 | 15.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 3.96 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 26 | 24 | 140 | 611 | 95 | 22 | 16 | 13.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.11 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 33 | 24 | 152 | 668 | 155 | 30 | 27 | 21.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.03 | 4.55 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 14 | 2 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 9 | 8 | 22.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.96 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 41 | 15 | 106 | 451 | 87 | 28 | 16 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.81 | 4.27 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 18 | 110 | 468 | 69 | 25 | 19 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.07 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 1 | 44 | 181 | 44 | 5 | 8 | 24.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.50 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 30 | 14 | 143 | 606 | 123 | 29 | 28 | 19.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.96 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 52 | 5 | 98 | 423 | 82 | 25 | 9 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 4.98 | 3.45 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 57 | 19 | 11 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 87 | 369 | 66 | 22 | 11 | 17.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.05 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 61 | 22 | 11 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 62 | 19 | 11 | 18.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.37 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 56 | 18 | 10 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 51 | 18 | 10 | 17.1% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 45 | 17 | 10 | 16.3% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 314 | 153 | 1114 | 4761 | 844 | 227 | 173 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.21 | +13.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 27 | 200 | 855 | 152 | 41 | 31 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.21 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Alexander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.46 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 237 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 70 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 69 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 68 |
| Everett Teaford L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 68 |
| Travis Blackley L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 68 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.71 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .298 | 4.55 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.71 | 237 | 67 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 67 |
| Greg Smith L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.37 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 65 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 64 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.18 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.24 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 92 | -0.94 | 2.79 | 225 | 64 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.08 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 62 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.82 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .316 | 5.24 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.45 | 512 | 62 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.40 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .346 | 4.07 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.33 | 3.83 | 426 | 62 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.84 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 1.1% | .335 | 4.77 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 112 | +0.93 | 2.89 | 391 | 61 |
| Roy Merritt L 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.92 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 129 | 61 |
| Travis Wood L 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.71 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 256 | 59 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.44 | 17.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 291 | 59 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.94 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 540 | 58 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2024 · 3.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.36 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 153 | 55 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 55 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2019
Service 7.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $2M | +$1M |
| Totals | $1M | $2M | +$1M | ||