Tyler Alexander — OGILVIE

Tyler Alexander P Texas Rangers

Age 32 LHP 6'1" / 214 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8088vR 96

ERA3.83

FIP3.81

K%19.5%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

FB+1.2 (37%)

CT+0.5 (21%)

SI (19%)

SL (18%)

CH (24%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	136	545	105	20	11	96%	5.5	15.0%	4.2%	10.8%	2.2%	2.44	3.56	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	136	545	105	20	11	96%	5.5	19.3%	3.7%	15.6%	2.0%	2.44	3.05	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	27	26	138	614	120	22	20	96%	5.1	15.8%	3.9%	11.9%	3.1%	5.07	3.97	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	27	26	138	614	120	22	20	96%	5.1	19.5%	3.6%	16.0%	3.3%	5.07	3.72	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	140	611	95	22	16	92%	5.4	13.3%	3.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.44	4.14	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	140	611	95	22	16	92%	5.4	15.5%	3.6%	11.9%	2.6%	4.44	3.70	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	152	668	155	30	27	73%	4.6	21.3%	4.7%	16.6%	4.7%	5.03	4.50	+0.7
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	152	668	155	30	27	73%	4.6	23.2%	4.5%	18.7%	4.0%	5.03	3.96	+1.7
2020	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	14	2	36	152	34	9	8	14%	2.6	22.4%	5.9%	16.4%	5.5%	3.96	4.98	-0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	14	2	36	152	34	9	8	14%	2.6	22.4%	5.9%	16.4%	5.3%	3.96	4.83	-0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	41	15	106	451	87	28	16	37%	2.6	19.3%	6.2%	13.1%	3.7%	3.81	4.29	+0.3
2021	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	41	15	106	451	87	28	16	37%	2.6	19.3%	6.2%	13.1%	3.5%	3.81	4.21	+0.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	110	468	69	25	19	56%	3.4	14.3%	5.6%	8.7%	4.4%	5.07	5.02	-0.2
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	18	110	468	69	25	19	56%	3.4	14.7%	5.3%	9.4%	4.1%	5.07	4.77	+0.2
2023	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	25	1	44	181	44	5	8	4%	1.8	24.3%	2.8%	21.5%	4.6%	4.50	3.93	+0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	25	1	44	181	44	5	8	4%	1.8	24.3%	2.8%	21.5%	4.6%	4.50	3.93	+0.3
2023	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	25	1	44	181	44	5	8	4%	1.8	24.3%	2.8%	21.5%	4.4%	4.50	3.80	+0.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	143	606	123	29	28	47%	4.8	19.4%	4.7%	14.7%	4.8%	4.96	4.67	-0.2
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	14	143	606	123	29	28	47%	4.8	19.4%	4.7%	14.7%	4.8%	4.96	4.67	-0.2
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	14	143	606	123	29	28	47%	4.8	20.3%	4.8%	15.5%	4.6%	4.96	4.53	+0.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	52	5	98	423	82	25	9	10%	1.9	19.4%	5.9%	13.5%	2.1%	4.98	3.36	+1.4
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	52	5	98	423	82	25	9	10%	1.9	19.4%	5.9%	13.5%	2.1%	4.98	3.36	+1.4
2025	31	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	52	5	98	423	82	25	9	10%	1.9	19.4%	5.9%	13.5%	2.1%	4.98	3.39	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			261	61	611	2599	501	139	93	23%	2.3	19.3%	5.3%	13.9%	3.6%	4.48	4.12	+3.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	66	4	65	275	56	18	2	6%	1.0	20.4%	6.5%	13.8%	0.7%	3.20	2.58	+1.5
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	66	4	65	275	56	18	2	6%	1.0	20.4%	6.5%	13.8%	0.7%	3.20	2.58	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	TEX	66	4	65	275	56	18	2	6%	1.0	20.4%	6.5%	13.8%	0.7%	3.20	2.61	+1.5
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	TEX	66	4	65	275	56	18	2	6%	1.0	20.4%	6.5%	13.8%	0.7%	3.20	2.61	+1.5
ROS	32	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	1	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	5.9%	13.5%	2.9%	3.83	3.81	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	5.9%	13.5%	2.9%	3.83	3.81	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	71	300	61	19	3	—	—	20.3%	6.5%	13.8%	0.9%	3.25	2.68	+1.8
FULL	32	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	71	298	61	19	3	—	—	20.4%	6.5%	13.9%	0.9%	3.25	2.70	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TEX	76	0	80	338	62	22	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	2.6%	4.06	4.17	+0.4
2028	34	MLB MLE	TEX	69	0	73	307	60	19	9	0%	1.1	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.14	4.20	+0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	TEX	76	0	80	338	62	22	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	2.6%	4.06	4.17	+0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	TEX	70	0	73	308	60	19	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.14	4.20	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		412	61	770	3269	628	181	111	15%	1.9	19.2%	5.5%	13.7%	3.4%	4.40	4.05	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		107	16	200	849	163	47	29	15%	1.9	19.2%	5.5%	13.7%	3.4%	4.40	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		371	157	1169	4994	889	241	175	42%	3.2	17.8%	4.8%	13.0%	3.5%	4.39	4.13	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	27	200	854	152	41	30	42%	3.2	17.8%	4.8%	13.0%	3.5%	4.39	4.13	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Alexander (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	18.2%	5.5%	3.2%	—	4.18	18.9%	12.7%	153	-0.22	—	—	—
Chris Rusin L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	32	SW	4.15	12.4%	6.7%	2.3%	.329	7.70	12.7%	3.5%	32	+3.55	2.89	488	64
David Huff L 2016 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	158	62
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	62
Cesár Ramos L 2016 · 5.20 FIP	32	SW	5.20	15.0%	7.8%	4.3%	.324	4.23	16.7%	8.4%	92	-0.97	2.80	225	61
Wei-Yin Chen L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	32	SP-	3.68	18.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.232	4.48	19.8%	13.3%	202	+0.80	3.68	549	61
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	61
Travis Wood L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	30	SW	5.48	14.9%	10.3%	4.2%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	256	60
Jaime García L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	32	SW	4.88	19.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	540	60
Dan Jennings L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	16.6%	8.1%	2.1%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	244	59
Ryan Verdugo L 2017 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP-	3.36	22.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	153	59
Tony Watson L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	32	SU	3.76	18.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.292	3.39	22.8%	18.4%	138	-0.37	2.21	405	58
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	58
Rich Hill L 2015 · 3.27 FIP	35	SW	3.27	26.8%	10.9%	1.9%	.239	3.07	29.0%	21.2%	379	-0.20	2.05	1,030	57
Vidal Nuño L 2019 · 4.40 FIP	32	SU	4.40	20.2%	8.7%	3.5%	.376	4.88	16.0%	11.1%	53	+0.48	4.00	424	57
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	56
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	56
Clayton Richard L 2016 · 3.83 FIP	32	SW	3.83	13.4%	9.2%	1.3%	.330	4.28	16.1%	8.6%	401	+0.45	3.56	574	56
Matt Moore L 2021 · 5.39 FIP	32	SP-	5.39	19.6%	10.8%	4.7%	.288	3.77	25.2%	15.4%	175	-1.62	2.80	861	54
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	54
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	53

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	80	18.7%	6.0%	1.13	4.22
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97