Pablo López

P Minnesota Twins

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.5 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MLBMIN	32	32	194	3.66	3.02	29.2%	5.9%	4.6
2024	28	MLBMIN	32	32	185	4.08	3.45	25.6%	5.3%	3.3
2025	29	MIX2 levels	18	18	92	2.75	2.97	24.1%	5.8%	2.2	K 23.5% · BB 5.8% · FIP 2.98
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIN	10	10	58	3.68	3.68	24.6%	5.9%	0.9
2028PROJ	32	MLBMIN	15	15	89	3.84	3.94	23.8%	6.3%	1.0
2029PROJ	33	MLBMIN	14	14	81	4.07	4.22	22.9%	6.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.541First FA2028

2027Ext$18M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%57

Whiff%54

xwOBA vs53

FB Velo50

CompsTim Adleman (age 31) · Matt Shoemaker (age 31) · Stan Spencer (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.68

FIP3.68

K%24.6%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%18.6%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

FB+7.0 (48%)

SL+5.1 (21%)

SI (7%)

CU (10%)

CH-3.2 (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.541 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$18M	+0.9	$4M	-$15M
Totals		$18M		$4M	-$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	12	3	37	162	26	6	1	25%	3.1	10.9%	4.6%	6.3%	0.9%	3.13	3.24	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	12	3	37	162	26	6	1	25%	3.1	16.0%	3.7%	12.3%	0.6%	3.13	2.54	—
2016	20	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	17	13	84	324	56	9	4	76%	5.0	12.8%	3.3%	9.5%	1.6%	2.13	3.34	—
2016	20	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	17	13	84	324	56	9	4	76%	5.0	17.3%	2.8%	14.5%	1.2%	2.13	2.71	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	27	24	145	605	121	20	6	89%	5.4	15.4%	3.8%	11.6%	1.3%	4.15	3.00	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	27	24	145	605	121	20	6	89%	5.4	20.0%	3.3%	16.7%	1.0%	4.15	2.38	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	121	500	112	25	14	100%	5.5	20.1%	5.2%	14.9%	3.1%	2.75	3.75	+1.7
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	121	500	112	25	14	100%	5.5	22.4%	5.0%	17.4%	2.8%	2.75	3.37	+2.3
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	126	541	111	30	18	100%	4.8	20.3%	5.1%	15.1%	3.4%	5.51	3.89	+1.5
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	126	541	111	30	18	100%	4.8	20.5%	5.5%	15.0%	3.3%	5.51	3.91	+1.5
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	11	11	57	240	59	17	4	100%	5.2	24.6%	7.1%	17.5%	1.8%	3.61	2.88	+1.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	11	11	57	240	59	17	4	100%	5.2	24.6%	7.1%	17.5%	1.7%	3.61	2.84	+1.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	108	434	120	25	11	100%	4.9	27.5%	6.0%	21.5%	2.8%	2.93	3.05	+2.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	108	434	120	25	11	100%	4.9	27.6%	5.8%	21.9%	2.5%	2.93	2.90	+2.7
2022	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	180	736	174	52	21	100%	5.6	23.6%	7.1%	16.6%	3.0%	3.75	3.65	+2.7
2022	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	180	736	174	52	21	100%	5.6	23.6%	7.1%	16.6%	2.9%	3.75	3.55	+3.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	194	801	234	47	24	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.9%	23.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.01	+4.6
2023	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	194	801	234	47	24	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.9%	23.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.02	+4.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	185	772	198	41	26	100%	5.8	25.6%	5.3%	20.3%	3.4%	4.08	3.45	+3.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	185	772	198	41	26	100%	5.8	25.6%	5.3%	20.3%	3.4%	4.08	3.45	+3.3
2024	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	185	772	198	41	26	100%	5.8	25.6%	5.3%	20.3%	3.4%	4.08	3.45	+3.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	92	377	91	22	8	100%	5.1	23.5%	5.8%	17.7%	2.0%	2.75	2.98	+2.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	92	377	91	22	8	100%	5.1	23.5%	5.8%	17.7%	2.0%	2.75	2.98	+2.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	92	377	91	22	8	100%	5.1	24.1%	5.8%	18.3%	2.1%	2.75	2.97	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			172	172	965	3995	994	239	115	100%	5.6	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	2.9%	3.81	3.33	+18.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIN	10	10	58	245	60	15	7	100%	5.8	24.6%	5.9%	18.6%	2.8%	3.68	3.68	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	89	375	89	24	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	6.3%	17.4%	3.0%	3.83	3.93	+1.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	81	344	79	23	11	100%	5.8	22.9%	6.8%	16.1%	3.3%	4.06	4.21	+0.7
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	74	313	75	20	11	100%	6.2	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	3.6%	4.17	4.25	+0.6
2031	35	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	66	281	65	20	11	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.0%	16.0%	3.9%	4.42	4.58	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	89	376	89	24	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	6.3%	17.4%	3.0%	3.84	3.94	+1.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	81	342	78	23	11	100%	5.8	22.9%	6.8%	16.1%	3.3%	4.07	4.22	+0.7
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	74	312	75	20	11	100%	6.2	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	3.6%	4.18	4.26	+0.6
2031	35	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	66	279	64	20	11	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.0%	16.0%	4.0%	4.43	4.59	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		224	224	1276	5307	1302	326	160	100%	5.7	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	3.0%	3.89	3.46	+22.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	832	204	51	25	100%	5.7	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	3.0%	3.89	3.46	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		251	235	1330	5492	1235	300	144	94%	5.3	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.6%	3.64	3.33	+21.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	826	186	45	22	94%	5.3	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.6%	3.64	3.33	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pablo López (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.68	24.6%	5.9%	2.8%	—	4.12	23.6%	17.0%	244	+0.44	—	—	—
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	66
Matt Shoemaker R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	31	SP	3.17	25.4%	7.7%	2.3%	.310	4.87	19.3%	11.5%	188	+1.70	3.12	728	63
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	62
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	61
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	61
Hideki Irabu R 2000 · 4.38 FIP	31	SP	4.38	17.0%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	5.19	17.2%	11.0%	64	+0.81	3.78	514	61
Merrill Kelly R 2020 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	23.2%	3.2%	4.2%	.241	3.79	22.6%	15.0%	536	-0.08	3.60	1,170	60
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	58
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	58
Yu Darvish R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	31	SP	4.50	27.2%	11.7%	4.0%	.282	3.48	30.5%	24.0%	421	-1.02	1.97	1,798	56
Colin Rea R 2021 · 2.57 FIP	31	SP	2.57	21.7%	3.0%	1.7%	.307	4.32	20.2%	14.0%	310	+1.75	2.57	1,116	56
Bryan Evans R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	31	SP	4.87	18.7%	4.7%	5.0%	.294	3.89	18.7%	8.3%	25	-0.98	3.89	231	55
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	55
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	55
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	54
Manuel Flores R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	31	SP	3.46	15.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.305	4.32	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.86	3.46	515	54
Kevin Herget R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	31	SP-	3.72	21.5%	4.4%	3.4%	.332	3.83	20.9%	14.4%	179	+0.11	2.16	726	54
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	54
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	53
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	103	24.5%	6.4%	1.16	3.87
Bobby Shantz ('49-'64, 32 WAR*)	9.7	129	22.7%*	7.0%*	1.04*	3.58*
Turk Farrell ('56-'69, 18 WAR*)	8.5	131	21.8%*	7.1%*	1.10*	4.12*
Don Mossi ('54-'65, 24 WAR*)	7.7	129	21.6%*	5.5%*	1.17*	3.72*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20