Jimmy Herget

P Colorado Rockies

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 183 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX3 levels	38	0	47	3.28	3.59	25.3%	5.2%	0.5	K 22.7% · BB 4.9% · FIP 3.84
2025	31	MLBCOL	59	0	83	2.48	2.99	23.3%	7.2%	1.6
2026	32	MIX2 levels	53	3	56	6.43	5.99	19.5%	10.4%	-0.9	K 19.8% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	33	MLBCOL	46	0	48	4.13	4.40	21.2%	8.5%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBCOL	27	0	28	4.47	4.70	20.3%	9.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBCOL	15	0	16	4.81	5.04	19.4%	9.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs39

K%34

FB Velo16

Form4.62 ERA (proj 4.13) · K 17.6% (proj 21.2%) · BB 9.8% (proj 8.5%) ▼ last 90d · 25 IP through Oct 27

CompsTony Barnette (age 33) · Rafael Betancourt (age 33) · Jean Machi (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.13

FIP4.40

K%21.2%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	24	0	25	104	26	11	1	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	1.3%	3.20	4.08	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	24	0	25	104	26	11	1	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	1.0%	3.20	2.86	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	50	0	61	252	83	22	3	0%	1.2	25.4%	10.0%	15.3%	1.4%	1.78	3.00	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	50	0	61	252	83	22	3	0%	1.2	32.9%	8.7%	24.2%	1.2%	1.78	2.09	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	62	257	72	18	5	0%	1.2	23.5%	7.5%	15.9%	2.0%	2.90	3.16	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	62	257	72	18	5	0%	1.2	28.0%	7.0%	21.0%	1.9%	2.90	2.70	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	50	0	60	260	65	20	5	0%	1.2	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	2.1%	3.47	3.44	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	50	0	60	260	65	20	5	0%	1.2	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	1.9%	3.47	3.02	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	65	277	68	38	9	0%	1.2	23.8%	14.6%	9.2%	3.2%	3.05	4.70	-0.1
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	65	277	68	38	9	0%	1.2	24.5%	13.7%	10.8%	3.2%	3.05	4.56	-0.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	20	1	20	87	17	13	2	5%	1.0	19.5%	14.9%	4.6%	2.1%	3.20	4.52	+0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	20	1	20	87	17	13	2	5%	1.0	19.5%	14.9%	4.6%	2.3%	3.20	4.68	-0.0
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	61	259	73	17	7	0%	1.2	25.7%	6.8%	18.9%	3.2%	4.28	3.54	+0.7
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	61	259	73	17	7	0%	1.2	28.2%	6.6%	21.6%	2.7%	4.28	3.03	+1.1
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	73	281	67	14	5	2%	1.4	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	1.5%	2.59	2.48	+1.8
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	73	281	67	14	5	2%	1.4	23.8%	5.0%	18.9%	1.8%	2.59	2.73	+1.6
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	62	263	62	16	12	2%	1.1	21.7%	5.7%	16.0%	4.7%	4.67	4.57	-0.0
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	1	62	263	62	16	12	2%	1.1	23.6%	6.1%	17.5%	4.6%	4.67	4.40	+0.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	47	194	49	10	7	0%	1.2	22.7%	4.9%	17.8%	3.7%	3.28	3.84	+0.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	47	194	49	10	7	0%	1.2	22.7%	4.9%	17.8%	3.7%	3.28	3.84	+0.4
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	47	194	49	10	7	0%	1.2	25.3%	5.2%	20.1%	3.6%	3.28	3.59	+0.5
2025	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	59	0	83	347	81	25	6	0%	1.4	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	1.5%	2.48	2.88	+1.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	59	0	83	347	81	25	6	0%	1.4	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	1.5%	2.48	2.88	+1.7
2025	31	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	59	0	83	347	81	25	6	0%	1.4	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	1.7%	2.48	2.99	+1.6
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	3	56	251	49	26	14	6%	1.1	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.7%	6.43	4.76	-0.1
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	3	56	251	49	26	14	6%	1.1	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.7%	6.43	4.76	-0.1
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	3	56	251	49	26	14	6%	1.1	19.5%	10.4%	9.2%	5.6%	6.43	5.99	-0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			239	6	292	1220	269	88	34	3%	1.2	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	2.8%	3.64	3.68	+3.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	COL	46	0	48	203	43	17	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.13	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	COL	29	0	30	127	26	11	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.47	4.70	-0.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	COL	16	0	17	73	14	7	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	3.6%	4.81	5.04	-0.1
2030	36	MLB MLE	COL	9	0	9	39	7	4	2	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	4.0%	5.17	5.41	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	COL	27	0	28	118	24	11	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.47	4.70	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	COL	15	0	16	68	13	6	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	3.6%	4.81	5.04	-0.1
2030	36	MLB CTX	COL	8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	4.0%	5.17	5.41	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		288	6	344	1439	312	108	42	2%	1.2	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.9%	3.79	3.81	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	3	200	837	182	63	24	2%	1.2	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.9%	3.79	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		554	6	674	2832	647	238	73	1%	1.2	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.6%	3.41	3.65	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	2	200	840	192	71	22	1%	1.2	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.6%	3.41	3.65	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 33 IPFIP 3.71 → 3.96 (+0.25)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.74%	—	×0.860	20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.04%	—	×0.900	4.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.079	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 33 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.31 (+0.41)K% 26.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.47%	—	×0.860	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×0.900	7.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.68%	÷1.003	×1.100	4.03%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 42 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.16 (+0.73)K% 29.3% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.28%	—	×0.880	25.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×1.050	8.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷0.907	×1.100	4.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 59 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.70 (+0.59)K% 27.1% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.09%	—	×0.880	23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.94%	—	×1.050	14.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷0.957	×1.100	3.20%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALouisville Bats · 60 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.44 (+0.42)K% 25.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.880	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.050	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.988	×1.100	2.14%

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALouisville Bats · 32 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.08 (+0.34)K% 21.1% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.880	18.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.050	6.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷1.042	×1.100	3.17%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 30 IPFIP 1.57 → 2.18 (+0.61)K% 35.5% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.48%	—	×0.810	28.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.100	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.399	×1.200	0.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 180).

Result: FIP 1.57 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Daytona Tortugas · 61 IPFIP 2.08 → 3.00 (+0.92)K% 32.9% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.94%	—	×0.770	25.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.73%	—	×1.150	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷1.063	×1.250	1.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jimmy Herget (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	21.2%	8.5%	3.0%	—	4.82	20.0%	10.8%	47	+0.42	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	81
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	79
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	78
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	75
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	74
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	74
Jared Burton R 2014 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	16.9%	8.1%	2.2%	.263	3.99	25.1%	15.7%	14	+0.09	3.09	367	73
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	73
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	72
Tyler Walker R 2009 · 3.72 FIP	33	SU	3.72	18.0%	5.3%	2.7%	.243	3.77	20.7%	16.6%	35	+0.05	2.38	289	72
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	72
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	72
Tommy Nance R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	33	SU	3.51	20.2%	5.8%	2.5%	.327	2.84	26.3%	19.5%	123	-0.67	2.08	360	72
D.J. Carrasco R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	33	SU	3.45	19.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.275	4.47	12.0%	6.7%	49	+1.02	3.23	490	71
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	71
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	71
Joel Peralta R 2009 · 4.03 FIP	33	SU	4.03	19.5%	8.8%	2.6%	.308	3.08	27.3%	22.3%	184	-0.95	2.70	648	70
Ben Weber R 2003 · 3.66 FIP	33	SU	3.66	13.9%	4.5%	2.1%	.292	5.03	10.4%	-2.2%	35	+1.37	2.57	284	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	50	21.6%	8.3%	1.13	3.85
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Blaine Hardy ('21)	1.5	48	18.5%	8.3%	0.99	3.78
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*