Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 24 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 4.08 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 24 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 1.0% | 3.20 | 2.86 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 50 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 83 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 1.3% | 1.78 | 2.96 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 50 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 83 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.9% | 8.7% | 24.2% | 1.2% | 1.78 | 2.09 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 62 | 257 | 72 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 2.90 | 3.08 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 62 | 257 | 72 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 7.0% | 21.0% | 1.9% | 2.90 | 2.70 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 50 | 0 | 60 | 260 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 3.47 | 3.46 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 50 | 0 | 60 | 260 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 17.3% | 1.9% | 3.47 | 3.02 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 68 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 14.6% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 3.05 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 68 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 3.05 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 20 | 1 | 20 | 87 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 3.20 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 20 | 1 | 20 | 87 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 3.20 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 73 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.7% | 6.8% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 4.28 | 3.73 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 73 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.2% | 6.6% | 21.6% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.03 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 73 | 281 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 4.5% | 19.2% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 2.53 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 73 | 281 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 5.0% | 18.9% | 1.8% | 2.59 | 2.73 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 1 | 62 | 263 | 62 | 16 | 12 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 6.3% | 15.6% | 4.8% | 4.67 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 1 | 62 | 263 | 62 | 16 | 12 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 6.1% | 17.5% | 4.6% | 4.67 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 49 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 5.4% | 17.6% | 3.5% | 3.28 | 3.78 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 49 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 5.2% | 20.1% | 3.6% | 3.28 | 3.59 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 59 | 0 | 83 | 347 | 81 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 2.48 | 2.77 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 59 | 0 | 83 | 347 | 81 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 1.7% | 2.48 | 2.99 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 27 | 3 | 27 | 122 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 11% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 17.6% | 1.9% | 5.27 | 2.90 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | COL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.6% | 2.4% | 3.14 | 3.29 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | COL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.6% | 2.4% | 3.14 | 3.29 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | COL | — | — | 65 | 282 | 65 | 20 | 10 | — | — | 23.1% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 3.5% | 4.03 | 3.13 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | COL | — | — | 63 | 266 | 65 | 20 | 10 | — | — | 24.5% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 3.7% | 4.18 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | COL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 54 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | COL | 50 | 0 | 53 | 222 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | COL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 199 | 41 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | COL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | COL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 43 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | COL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 385 | 6 | 444 | 1856 | 415 | 127 | 48 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 3.48 | 3.49 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 3 | 200 | 835 | 187 | 57 | 22 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 3.48 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 528 | 6 | 645 | 2703 | 628 | 223 | 66 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.22 | 3.53 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 2 | 200 | 838 | 195 | 69 | 21 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.22 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jimmy Herget (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.78 | 22.8% | 6.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.25 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 158 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 79 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 79 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 77 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 76 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .287 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 8.6% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.56 | 290 | 75 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.59 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 92 | +0.73 | 2.80 | 288 | 75 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 75 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 73 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 73 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 73 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 72 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.80 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 3.1% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 364 | 72 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 72 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 1.09 | 3.94 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |