Matt Bowman
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.1
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.82
FIP4.54
xFIP4.96
SIERA4.40
K%20.4%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%12.8%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1090.4
Whiff%
p1017.4%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
SI (43%)
FB (46%)
CT-2.0 (25%)
SL-3.6 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | 28 | 26 | 140 | 643 | 77 | 50 | 15 | 10.5% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 5.53 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 59 | 0 | 68 | 281 | 52 | 18 | 4 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 3.46 | 3.13 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 75 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 3.99 | 3.32 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 40 | 0 | 46 | 209 | 56 | 16 | 6 | 25.1% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 56 | 0 | 71 | 293 | 60 | 26 | 3 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 2.79 | 3.23 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 52 | 0 | 63 | 277 | 61 | 31 | 6 | 19.9% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 4.31 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 52 | 1 | 64 | 263 | 65 | 21 | 9 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 3.08 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 51 | 1 | 61 | 268 | 53 | 15 | 10 | 18.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.84 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 6 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | OAK | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 43 | 17 | 8 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 64 | 271 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 3.94 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 18.1% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 419 | 29 | 582 | 2524 | 447 | 207 | 59 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 4.24 | 3.93 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 10 | 200 | 868 | 154 | 71 | 20 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 4.24 | 3.93 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Bowman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | — | 4.83 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 50 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 84 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 84 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 82 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 80 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 79 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 79 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 79 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 78 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 76 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 75 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.94 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 248 | 73 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 136 | 73 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2024 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.85 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.54 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.31 | 4.54 | 156 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.