Matt Bowman
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 35
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION170 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.56
FIP4.77
xFIP4.96
SIERA4.40
K%17.9%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%10.2%
IP170
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.4
Whiff%
p1017.4%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
SI (43%)
FB (46%)
CT-2.0 (25%)
SL-3.6 (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | 28 | 26 | 140 | 643 | 77 | 50 | 15 | 10.5% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 5.53 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 59 | 0 | 68 | 281 | 52 | 18 | 4 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 3.46 | 3.13 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 75 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 3.99 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 40 | 0 | 46 | 209 | 56 | 16 | 6 | 25.1% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 56 | 0 | 71 | 293 | 60 | 26 | 3 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 2.79 | 3.23 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 52 | 0 | 63 | 277 | 61 | 31 | 6 | 19.9% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 4.31 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 52 | 1 | 64 | 263 | 65 | 21 | 9 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 3.08 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 51 | 1 | 61 | 268 | 53 | 15 | 10 | 18.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.84 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 32 | 4 | 45 | 193 | 53 | 14 | 3 | 24.2% | 7.6% | 1.7% | 2.98 | 2.96 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | MIN | 31 | 31 | 170 | 718 | 128 | 55 | 24 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.77 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 215 | 911 | 181 | 69 | 27 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.39 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 150 | 635 | 107 | 52 | 24 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 5.13 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 445 | 32 | 617 | 2674 | 484 | 215 | 61 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 3.83 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 10 | 200 | 867 | 157 | 70 | 20 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Bowman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | — | 5.13 | 16.8% | 8.6% | 150 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 58 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 57 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 53 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 52 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.07 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | .271 | 4.81 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 205 | -0.26 | 4.36 | 720 | 52 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.13 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .354 | 4.52 | 13.0% | 5.2% | 53 | +0.39 | 4.13 | 183 | 52 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 51 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 51 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 50 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.26 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .283 | 6.98 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 24 | +1.72 | 4.04 | 710 | 48 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.13 | 13.6% | 6.6% | 68 | +0.22 | 4.91 | 225 | 47 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 46 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.60 | 10.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 287 | 44 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 44 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 43 |
| Aaron Harang R 2028 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 43 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.06 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .258 | 5.04 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 135 | +0.98 | 3.49 | 869 | 42 |
| Walter Silva R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 42 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.08 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.11 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 130 | +1.03 | 3.93 | 413 | 40 |
| Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 40 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.