Ryan Burr
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.6
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.94
FIP3.80
xFIP3.18
SIERA2.79
K%27.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%18.9%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p9031.9%
K%
p9033.6%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
FB (23%)
SL (77%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 13 | 0 | 20 | 76 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 27.3% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 0.46 | 1.98 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Kane County Cougars | 16 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 14.2% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 3.18 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 45 | 0 | 65 | 260 | 88 | 26 | 3 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 1.65 | 3.35 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 45 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 57 | 30 | 6 | 19.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 3.25 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 16 | 1 | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 49 | 1 | 52 | 224 | 47 | 27 | 6 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 3.10 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 10 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 9 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 18 | 1 | 23 | 92 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 22.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.09 | 2.82 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 54 | 4 | 53 | 231 | 85 | 21 | 5 | 34.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 2.51 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 13 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 20 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.14 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 27.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 26.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 25.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.05 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 25.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 23.6% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 279 | 8 | 343 | 1428 | 346 | 155 | 29 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 3.02 | 3.55 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 163 | 5 | 200 | 833 | 202 | 90 | 17 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 3.02 | 3.55 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Burr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 27.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.11 | 25.9% | 16.6% | 114 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 77 |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 3.02 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.02 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 121 | 76 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 74 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 74 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.04 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .324 | 3.27 | 23.4% | 17.1% | 134 | +0.23 | 2.31 | 403 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.42 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .235 | 4.92 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.50 | 2.00 | 320 | 71 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 71 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 71 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 71 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 71 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 70 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 70 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.02 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .263 | 3.46 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.44 | 2.58 | 277 | 70 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 8.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.5 | $2M | -$5M |
| Totals | $7M | $2M | -$5M | ||