Ryan Burr
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9586vR 77
ERA3.43
FIP3.30
K%31.2%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%24.0%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p9031.9%
K%
p9033.6%
xwOBA vs
p660.296
FB (23%)
SL (77%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 13 | 0 | 20 | 76 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.3% | 9.3% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 0.46 | 1.98 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 13 | 0 | 20 | 76 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 36.8% | 7.9% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 0.46 | 1.17 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.2% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 3.18 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 3.52 | 2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 65 | 260 | 88 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 1.65 | 3.46 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 65 | 260 | 88 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.8% | 10.0% | 23.8% | 1.2% | 1.65 | 2.20 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 57 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 14.2% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 3.25 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 57 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.25 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 16 | 1 | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 6% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 16 | 1 | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 6% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 52 | 224 | 47 | 27 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.10 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 52 | 224 | 47 | 27 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.10 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.06 | 6.33 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.06 | 6.47 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 18 | 1 | 23 | 92 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 6% | 1.3 | 22.0% | 3.4% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 3.09 | 2.71 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 18 | 1 | 23 | 92 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 6% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 3.3% | 21.7% | 2.2% | 3.09 | 2.63 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 4 | 53 | 231 | 85 | 21 | 5 | 7% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 9.3% | 25.5% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 2.55 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 4 | 53 | 231 | 85 | 21 | 5 | 7% | 1.0 | 36.8% | 9.1% | 27.7% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 2.31 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 8% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 12.3% | 22.8% | 1.8% | 3.14 | 2.66 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 1 | 14 | 57 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 8% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 12.3% | 22.8% | 1.8% | 3.14 | 2.68 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 77 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.2% | 7.2% | 24.0% | 2.8% | 3.43 | 3.30 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 69 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 7.7% | 22.7% | 3.1% | 3.52 | 3.58 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 61 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 8.2% | 21.3% | 3.4% | 3.74 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 53 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 8.7% | 19.8% | 3.7% | 4.03 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 7.7% | 22.7% | 3.1% | 3.52 | 3.58 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 8.2% | 21.3% | 3.4% | 3.74 | 3.88 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 8.7% | 19.8% | 3.7% | 4.03 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 148 | 6 | 158 | 670 | 176 | 67 | 23 | 4% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 3.4% | 3.93 | 4.02 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 8 | 200 | 851 | 223 | 85 | 29 | 4% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 3.4% | 3.93 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 279 | 8 | 343 | 1428 | 346 | 155 | 30 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.02 | 3.57 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 163 | 5 | 200 | 833 | 202 | 91 | 17 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.02 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Burr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.30 | 31.2% | 7.2% | 2.8% | — | 3.87 | 29.5% | 21.3% | 147 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 81 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 77 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 74 |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 71 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 71 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 71 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 69 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.94 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .324 | 3.29 | 23.4% | 17.1% | 134 | +0.35 | 2.27 | 426 | 69 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.07 | 34.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .341 | 3.31 | 25.2% | 18.0% | 129 | +0.24 | 2.33 | 445 | 69 |
| Luke Gregerson R 2026 · 2.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.65 | 29.1% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .232 | 4.25 | 25.7% | 18.8% | 74 | +1.60 | 2.52 | 192 | 68 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 67 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 67 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.85 | 28.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .232 | 4.83 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 84 | +1.98 | 2.85 | 141 | 67 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 2.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.80 | 35.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | .254 | 5.02 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 122 | +2.22 | 2.34 | 232 | 67 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 2.61 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.61 | 33.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .228 | 4.31 | 26.6% | 18.8% | 144 | +1.70 | 2.61 | 339 | 67 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 67 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .287 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 8.6% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.56 | 290 | 67 |
| Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 67 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.56 | 24.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | .295 | 3.29 | 26.1% | 18.9% | 107 | +0.73 | 2.56 | 268 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 30.0% | 7.9% | 1.24 | 3.66 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |