Ryan Burr — OGILVIE

Ryan Burr P Buffalo Bisons

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9688vR 80

ERA3.44

FIP3.30

K%30.7%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%23.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD7070

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p9033.6%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

FB (23%)

SL (77%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.8M
Totals		$0.8M		$0.0M	-$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	13	0	20	76	28	6	0	0%	1.5	27.3%	9.3%	17.9%	0.0%	0.46	1.98	—
2015	21	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	13	0	20	76	28	6	0	0%	1.5	36.8%	7.9%	28.9%	0.0%	0.46	1.17	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	23	103	20	9	0	0%	1.4	14.2%	10.0%	4.1%	0.0%	3.52	3.18	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	23	103	20	9	0	0%	1.4	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.52	2.53	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	65	260	88	26	3	0%	1.5	25.5%	11.7%	13.9%	1.7%	1.65	3.34	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	65	260	88	26	3	0%	1.5	33.8%	10.0%	23.8%	1.2%	1.65	2.20	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	252	57	30	6	0%	1.4	19.6%	14.2%	5.4%	2.1%	3.25	4.42	+0.1
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	61	252	57	30	6	0%	1.4	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	2.4%	3.25	3.99	+0.4
2019	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	16	1	20	86	20	8	3	6%	1.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.20	+0.1
2019	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	16	1	20	86	20	8	3	6%	1.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.5%	4.58	4.27	+0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	52	224	47	27	6	2%	1.1	20.2%	12.2%	8.0%	2.6%	3.10	4.34	+0.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	52	224	47	27	6	2%	1.1	21.0%	12.1%	8.9%	2.7%	3.10	4.34	+0.1
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	11	47	9	5	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	6.4%	5.06	6.33	-0.2
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	11	47	9	5	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	6.4%	5.06	6.47	-0.2
2023	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	18	1	23	92	23	3	2	6%	1.3	20.8%	2.9%	17.8%	2.1%	3.09	2.87	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	18	1	23	92	23	3	2	6%	1.3	20.8%	2.9%	17.8%	2.1%	3.09	2.87	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	18	1	23	92	23	3	2	6%	1.3	25.0%	3.3%	21.7%	2.2%	3.09	2.63	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	4	53	231	85	21	5	7%	1.0	34.0%	8.7%	25.3%	2.2%	4.05	2.55	+1.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	4	53	231	85	21	5	7%	1.0	34.0%	8.7%	25.3%	2.2%	4.05	2.55	+1.3
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	4	53	231	85	21	5	7%	1.0	36.8%	9.1%	27.7%	2.2%	4.05	2.31	+1.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	1	14	57	20	7	1	8%	1.1	35.1%	12.3%	22.8%	1.8%	3.14	2.66	+0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	1	14	57	20	7	1	8%	1.1	35.1%	12.3%	22.8%	1.8%	3.14	2.66	+0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	1	14	57	20	7	1	8%	1.1	35.1%	12.3%	22.8%	1.8%	3.14	2.68	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			102	6	110	468	116	51	16	6%	1.1	24.8%	10.9%	13.9%	3.4%	4.02	4.28	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	TOR	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.9%	23.8%	2.8%	3.44	3.30	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TOR	51	0	54	228	68	17	7	0%	1.1	29.8%	7.3%	22.5%	3.1%	3.52	3.58	+0.6
2028	34	MLB MLE	TOR	47	0	49	207	60	16	7	0%	1.0	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	3.4%	3.74	3.88	+0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	TOR	42	0	44	186	52	16	7	0%	1.0	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	3.7%	4.03	4.22	+0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	TOR	19	0	20	84	25	6	3	0%	1.1	29.8%	7.3%	22.5%	3.1%	3.52	3.58	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	TOR	15	0	16	68	20	5	2	0%	1.1	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	3.4%	3.74	3.88	+0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	TOR	11	0	12	51	14	4	2	0%	1.1	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	3.7%	4.03	4.22	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		148	6	158	670	175	67	23	4%	1.1	26.1%	9.9%	16.1%	3.4%	3.93	4.02	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	8	200	851	222	85	29	4%	1.1	26.1%	9.9%	16.1%	3.4%	3.93	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		279	8	343	1428	343	154	29	3%	1.2	24.0%	10.8%	13.3%	2.1%	3.02	3.57	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	5	200	833	200	90	17	3%	1.2	24.0%	10.8%	13.3%	2.1%	3.02	3.57	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Burr (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.30	30.7%	6.9%	2.8%	—	3.87	29.0%	21.2%	147	+0.57	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	80
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	78
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	75
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	72
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	71
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	70
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	70
Luke Gregerson R 2016 · 2.75 FIP	32	SU	2.75	29.1%	7.0%	2.2%	.232	4.47	25.7%	18.8%	74	+1.72	2.62	192	69
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	68
Chad Gaudin R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	22.8%	6.8%	1.2%	.325	3.15	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.48	2.02	102	68
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	68
Francisco Rodríguez R 2015 · 2.71 FIP	33	SU	2.71	28.7%	4.6%	2.6%	.232	4.72	21.3%	12.8%	84	+2.01	2.71	141	68
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	67
Shawn Kelley R 2016 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	35.7%	4.0%	4.0%	.254	5.05	23.1%	17.9%	122	+2.25	2.23	232	67
David Hernandez R 2017 · 2.60 FIP	32	SU	2.60	24.3%	4.2%	1.8%	.295	3.25	26.1%	18.9%	107	+0.65	2.60	268	67
Blake Parker R 2017 · 2.52 FIP	32	SU	2.52	33.9%	6.3%	2.7%	.228	4.20	26.6%	18.8%	144	+1.68	2.52	339	67
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	67
Javy Guerra R 2018 · 2.95 FIP	32	SU	2.95	23.0%	5.9%	1.9%	.311	4.03	19.7%	13.8%	83	+1.08	2.95	260	66
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	66
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	29.5%	7.5%	1.24	3.66
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61