Spencer Turnbull

Spencer Turnbull P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.57

FIP4.69

K%18.9%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

CH (13%)

SI (6%)

CU (15%)

SL (30%)

FB-4.7 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	117	503	106	52	0	100%	5.3	15.6%	12.2%	3.4%	0.0%	3.01	3.33	—
2015	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	117	503	106	52	0	100%	5.3	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	0.0%	3.01	2.62	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	44	177	39	16	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	10.7%	5.6%	2.2%	3.45	4.28	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	44	177	39	16	3	100%	3.7	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	1.7%	3.45	3.30	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	112	458	102	35	4	100%	5.3	15.9%	8.9%	7.0%	0.7%	3.70	3.29	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	112	458	102	35	4	100%	5.3	22.3%	7.6%	14.6%	0.9%	3.70	2.68	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	27	26	136	571	148	50	5	96%	5.0	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	1.0%	4.18	3.02	+3.2
2018	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	27	26	136	571	148	50	5	96%	5.0	25.9%	8.8%	17.2%	0.9%	4.18	2.50	+4.1
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	152	669	153	58	14	100%	4.9	22.3%	8.8%	13.4%	2.2%	4.50	3.56	+2.5
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	152	669	153	58	14	100%	4.9	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.1%	4.50	3.43	+2.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	11	11	57	242	51	28	2	100%	5.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.9%	3.97	3.26	+1.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	11	11	57	242	51	28	2	100%	5.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.8%	3.97	3.24	+1.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	9	9	50	201	44	12	2	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.0%	2.88	2.58	+1.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	9	9	50	201	44	12	2	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.0%	2.88	2.58	+1.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	57	266	54	26	8	100%	3.8	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	3.1%	6.79	4.55	+0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	57	266	54	26	8	100%	3.8	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	3.1%	6.79	4.55	+0.2
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	57	266	54	26	8	100%	3.8	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.0%	6.79	4.40	+0.3
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.5%	2.88	3.42	+0.8
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.5%	2.88	3.42	+0.8
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.0%	9.1%	16.9%	3.0%	2.88	3.70	+0.6
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	15.1%	10.7%	4.4%	2.2%	7.48	4.38	+0.4
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	15.1%	10.7%	4.4%	2.2%	7.48	4.38	+0.4
2025	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	2.0%	7.48	4.27	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			81	68	363	1568	342	141	31	84%	4.5	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	2.0%	4.31	3.49	+6.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	TOR	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	2.7%	4.57	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	272	49	29	8	100%	5.9	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	3.0%	4.83	5.00	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	58	244	42	28	8	100%	5.8	17.1%	11.3%	5.7%	3.4%	5.13	5.33	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	49	29	8	100%	5.8	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	3.0%	4.83	5.00	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	58	245	42	28	8	100%	5.8	17.1%	11.3%	5.7%	3.4%	5.13	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	88	485	2084	433	198	48	87%	4.8	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	2.3%	4.48	3.80	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	36	200	859	178	82	20	87%	4.8	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	2.3%	4.48	3.80	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		185	170	852	3663	707	358	54	92%	4.6	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	1.5%	4.25	3.51	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	860	166	84	13	92%	4.6	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	1.5%	4.25	3.51	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Turnbull (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	—	5.16	17.6%	6.5%	122	+0.47	—	—	—
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	73
Kris Medlen R 2018 · 5.20 FIP	32	SP	5.20	16.2%	10.0%	4.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	261	71
Lucas Harrell R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	32	SP	3.57	16.2%	10.5%	0.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	139	71
Brandon McCarthy R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	33	SP	4.84	22.5%	11.5%	4.0%	.288	3.82	19.0%	12.4%	171	-1.02	3.09	248	68
Tim Lincecum R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	32	SP	4.88	17.9%	10.4%	3.6%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+0.99	4.20	166	68
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	67
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	67
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	65
Tyson Ross R 2019 · 5.68 FIP	32	SP	5.68	15.4%	11.1%	4.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	449	65
Alfredo Aceves R 2016 · 4.78 FIP	33	SP	4.78	10.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.270	5.10	8.9%	0.0%	51	+0.32	4.78	160	64
Cesar Carrillo R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	33	SP	4.97	12.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.320	6.22	11.0%	1.8%	66	+1.25	4.14	325	64
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	248	64
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	63
Kameron Loe R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	34	SP	3.84	11.9%	5.3%	2.0%	.356	3.38	17.1%	9.1%	133	-0.46	3.38	201	63
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	250	62
Barry Enright R 2018 · 4.97 FIP	32	SP	4.97	13.6%	7.6%	3.7%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	315	62
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.85	289	61
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	61
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	3.50	348	60
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	18.1%	10.8%	1.18	4.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38