Spencer Turnbull
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+0.2
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.55
xFIP5.96
SIERA5.62
K%20.8%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%10.1%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†4545
FB Velo
p1592.0
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p7126.1%
xwOBA vs
p480.314
CH (13%)
SI (6%)
CU (15%)
SL (30%)
FB-4.7 (42%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 22 | 22 | 117 | 503 | 106 | 52 | 0 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 3.01 | 3.33 | +2.6 |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 12 | 12 | 44 | 177 | 39 | 16 | 3 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 3.45 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 21 | 21 | 112 | 458 | 102 | 35 | 4 | 15.9% | 8.9% | 0.7% | 3.70 | 3.28 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 27 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 148 | 50 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 1.0% | 4.18 | 3.02 | +3.5 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 31 | 152 | 669 | 153 | 58 | 14 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 3.58 | +3.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 11 | 11 | 57 | 242 | 51 | 28 | 2 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 0.9% | 3.97 | 3.25 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 9 | 9 | 50 | 201 | 44 | 12 | 2 | 21.9% | 6.0% | 1.0% | 2.88 | 2.57 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 15 | 57 | 266 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 18.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 6.79 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 18 | 7 | 56 | 231 | 60 | 21 | 7 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 2.88 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 19 | 16 | 71 | 345 | 64 | 40 | 7 | 15.8% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 7.48 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 19.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 27 | 17 | 5 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 170 | 852 | 3663 | 711 | 365 | 54 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 4.25 | 3.53 | +17.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 860 | 167 | 86 | 13 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 4.25 | 3.53 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Turnbull (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.93 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 117 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 86 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 81 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 80 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 80 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 79 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 227 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 76 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
| Jeff Manship R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 73 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.79 | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 301 | 73 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 73 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.78 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | .344 | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.28 | 2.00 | 320 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 72 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.