Spencer Turnbull

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 1.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	MIX3 levels	15	15	57	6.79	4.40	20.3%	9.8%	0.7	K 18.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.52
2024	31	MIX2 levels	18	7	56	2.88	3.70	26.0%	9.1%	0.6	K 26.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.42
2025	32	MIX4 levels	19	16	71	7.48	4.27	18.6%	11.6%	0.9	K 15.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.34
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBTOR	3	3	18	4.43	4.76	18.9%	10.4%	0.1
2028PROJ	35	MLBTOR	20	20	121	4.83	5.10	17.9%	11.0%	0.4
2029PROJ	36	MLBTOR	15	15	90	5.21	5.47	16.9%	11.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Manuel Flores (age 33) · Matt Buschmann (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.43

FIP4.76

K%18.9%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	117	503	106	52	0	100%	5.3	15.6%	12.2%	3.4%	0.0%	3.01	3.33	—
2015	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	117	503	106	52	0	100%	5.3	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	0.0%	3.01	2.62	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	44	177	39	16	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	10.7%	5.6%	2.2%	3.45	4.28	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	44	177	39	16	3	100%	3.7	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	1.7%	3.45	3.30	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	112	458	102	35	4	100%	5.3	15.9%	8.9%	7.0%	0.7%	3.70	3.29	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	112	458	102	35	4	100%	5.3	22.3%	7.6%	14.6%	0.9%	3.70	2.68	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	27	26	136	571	148	50	5	96%	5.0	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	1.0%	4.18	3.02	+4.0
2018	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	27	26	136	571	148	50	5	96%	5.0	25.9%	8.8%	17.2%	0.9%	4.18	2.50	+5.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	152	669	153	58	14	100%	4.9	22.3%	8.8%	13.4%	2.2%	4.50	3.56	+3.4
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	152	669	153	58	14	100%	4.9	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.1%	4.50	3.43	+3.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	11	11	57	242	51	28	2	100%	5.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.9%	3.97	3.26	+1.5
2020	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	11	11	57	242	51	28	2	100%	5.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.8%	3.97	3.24	+1.5
2021	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	9	9	50	201	44	12	2	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.0%	2.88	2.58	+1.8
2021	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	9	9	50	201	44	12	2	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.0%	2.88	2.58	+1.8
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	57	266	54	26	8	100%	3.8	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	3.1%	6.79	4.52	+0.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	57	266	54	26	8	100%	3.8	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.0%	6.79	4.40	+0.7
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.5%	2.88	3.42	+0.8
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.5%	2.88	3.42	+0.8
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.0%	9.1%	16.9%	3.0%	2.88	3.70	+0.6
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.2%	7.48	4.34	+0.9
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.2%	7.48	4.34	+0.9
2025	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	2.0%	7.48	4.27	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			81	68	363	1568	342	141	31	84%	4.5	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	2.0%	4.31	3.49	+8.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	TOR	3	3	18	76	14	8	2	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.76	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	121	511	92	56	16	100%	6.1	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	3.2%	4.83	5.10	+0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	90	382	64	44	14	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.6%	5.3%	3.6%	5.21	5.47	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	121	511	92	56	16	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	3.2%	4.83	5.10	+0.4
2029	36	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	90	380	64	44	13	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.6%	5.3%	3.6%	5.21	5.47	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	103	574	2461	498	241	61	89%	5.0	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.5%	4.56	3.99	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	36	200	857	173	84	21	89%	4.9	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.5%	4.56	3.99	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		185	170	852	3663	710	358	54	92%	4.6	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	1.5%	4.25	3.51	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	860	167	84	13	92%	4.6	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	1.5%	4.25	3.51	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 49 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.40 (+0.17)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.52%	—	×0.860	15.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×0.900	11.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 11 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.08 (+0.59)K% 18.5% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.52%	—	×0.740	13.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.180	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.284	×1.300	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 21 IPFIP 3.47 → 3.86 (+0.39)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.51%	—	×0.860	21.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.78%	—	×0.900	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.901	×1.100	2.39%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAErie SeaWolves · 99 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.28 (+0.56)K% 24.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.94%	—	×0.810	20.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.100	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.112	×1.200	1.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 13 IPFIP 0.79 → 1.19 (+0.40)K% 35.8% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.85%	—	×0.880	31.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.050	5.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.893	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 0.79 → 1.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 83 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.30 (+0.38)K% 19.4% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.39%	—	×0.770	14.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.150	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.747	×1.250	0.65%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 249).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAErie SeaWolves · 20 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.24 (+0.46)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.66%	—	×0.810	19.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.60%	—	×1.100	9.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.259	×1.200	1.02%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKGCL Tigers West · 9 IPFIP -0.04 → 1.38 (+1.42)K% 45.7% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.71%	—	×0.680	31.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.250	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.04 → 1.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Turnbull (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	5.26	17.5%	6.3%	212	+0.50	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	80
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	72
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	70
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	68
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	66
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	64
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	63
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	60
Albert Suárez R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	34	SP-	4.00	19.5%	6.8%	3.1%	.293	4.14	17.8%	10.6%	80	+0.14	3.58	616	59
Ryan Vogelsong R 2011 · 3.65 FIP	34	SP	3.65	18.5%	7.3%	2.2%	.274	3.90	18.6%	11.3%	478	+0.25	3.14	1,184	59
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	56
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	56
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	56
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	477	56
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	55
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	54
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	53
Frankie De La Cruz R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	15.2%	8.0%	1.7%	.262	4.38	16.2%	8.2%	114	+0.61	2.87	262	52
Jesse Estrada R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	33	SP	5.39	8.3%	5.6%	4.2%	.285	4.34	14.4%	7.8%	85	-1.05	3.80	257	52
Orlando Hernandez R 2004 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	23.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.278	4.34	20.5%	11.7%	438	+0.57	3.35	1,315	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	94	19.9%	10.0%	0.99	4.53
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Bart Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	4.0	116	21.6%*	9.7%*	0.97*	4.47*
David Palmer ('78-'89, 12 WAR*)	5.4	136	21.5%*	9.3%*	0.96*	4.30*
Bruce Howard ('63-'68, 2 WAR*)	2.6	106	19.2%*	10.8%*	1.05*	4.32*