Spencer Turnbull
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 85 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.59
FIP4.74
K%19.5%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP85
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH (13%)
SI (6%)
CU (15%)
SL (30%)
FB-4.7 (42%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 22 | 22 | 117 | 503 | 106 | 52 | 0 | 100% | 5.3 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 3.01 | 3.33 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 22 | 22 | 117 | 503 | 106 | 52 | 0 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 3.01 | 2.62 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 44 | 177 | 39 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 3.45 | 4.24 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 44 | 177 | 39 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 3.7 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 3.45 | 3.30 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 112 | 458 | 102 | 35 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 15.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 0.5% | 3.70 | 3.18 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 112 | 458 | 102 | 35 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.3% | 7.6% | 14.6% | 0.9% | 3.70 | 2.68 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 27 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 148 | 50 | 5 | 96% | 5.0 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 0.9% | 4.18 | 2.98 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 27 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 148 | 50 | 5 | 96% | 5.0 | 25.9% | 8.8% | 17.2% | 0.9% | 4.18 | 2.50 | +4.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 152 | 669 | 153 | 58 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 3.62 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 152 | 669 | 153 | 58 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 4.50 | 3.43 | +3.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 11 | 11 | 57 | 242 | 51 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 0.9% | 3.97 | 3.28 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 11 | 11 | 57 | 242 | 51 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 0.8% | 3.97 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 9 | 9 | 50 | 201 | 44 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.9% | 6.0% | 15.9% | 1.1% | 2.88 | 2.60 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 9 | 9 | 50 | 201 | 44 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.9% | 6.0% | 15.9% | 1.0% | 2.88 | 2.58 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 57 | 266 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 3.8 | 18.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 6.79 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 57 | 266 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 3.8 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 6.79 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 56 | 231 | 60 | 21 | 7 | 39% | 3.1 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 2.88 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 56 | 231 | 60 | 21 | 7 | 39% | 3.1 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 2.88 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 16 | 71 | 345 | 64 | 40 | 7 | 84% | 3.7 | 15.8% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 7.48 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 19 | 16 | 71 | 345 | 64 | 40 | 7 | 84% | 3.7 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 7.48 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 70 | 39 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 77 | 327 | 67 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 58 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 67 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 92 | 510 | 2188 | 467 | 209 | 51 | 88% | 4.9 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 3.79 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 36 | 200 | 858 | 183 | 82 | 20 | 88% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 185 | 170 | 852 | 3663 | 711 | 365 | 54 | 92% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 1.5% | 4.25 | 3.53 | +18.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 860 | 167 | 86 | 13 | 92% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 1.5% | 4.25 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Turnbull (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.94 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 147 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 72 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.64 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 139 | 70 |
| Kris Medlen R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.11 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 261 | 70 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.86 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -1.02 | 3.16 | 248 | 67 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.30 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.43 | 3.63 | 885 | 66 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 66 |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.14 | 22.1% | 12.6% | 4.2% | .207 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 811 | 65 |
| Diego Moreno R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.86 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .376 | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 30 | +0.96 | 2.22 | 187 | 65 |
| Tyson Ross R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.80 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 449 | 64 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 64 |
| Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.63 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .360 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 16.2% | 244 | -0.15 | 2.27 | 1,190 | 64 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.83 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 4.9% | .190 | 3.89 | 18.3% | 12.2% | 352 | -1.94 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 64 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.91 | 12.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .320 | 6.50 | 11.0% | 1.8% | 66 | +1.59 | 4.23 | 325 | 63 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.71 | 10.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .270 | 4.97 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 51 | +0.26 | 4.71 | 160 | 62 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 250 | 62 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 62 |
| Kameron Loe R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 61 |
| Barry Enright R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.07 | 13.6% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 315 | 61 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.66 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .308 | 4.62 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.96 | 3.66 | 348 | 60 |
| J.D. Martin R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.84 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.47 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.63 | 4.84 | 289 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 77 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 1.18 | 4.73 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |