Trevor Williams
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 231 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION8 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.56
FIP4.57
K%16.7%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1087.7
Whiff%
p1119.8%
K%
p1717.4%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
SI (8%)
SL-0.8 (36%)
CH-3.0 (13%)
FB-9.4 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 131 | 565 | 101 | 43 | 9 | 96% | 5.2 | 14.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 3.85 | 4.02 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 131 | 565 | 101 | 43 | 9 | 96% | 5.2 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 1.6% | 3.85 | 3.44 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 21 | 128 | 537 | 89 | 33 | 9 | 75% | 4.6 | 14.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 2.95 | 3.80 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 21 | 128 | 537 | 89 | 33 | 9 | 75% | 4.6 | 16.6% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 2.95 | 3.40 | +3.0 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 25 | 150 | 642 | 117 | 48 | 14 | 81% | 4.8 | 18.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 4.07 | 3.72 | +3.0 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 25 | 150 | 642 | 117 | 48 | 14 | 81% | 4.8 | 18.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 4.07 | 3.71 | +3.0 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 31 | 171 | 701 | 126 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 3.11 | 3.71 | +3.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 31 | 171 | 701 | 126 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 3.11 | 3.68 | +3.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 650 | 118 | 42 | 27 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 11.3% | 4.3% | 5.39 | 4.77 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 650 | 118 | 42 | 27 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.2% | 6.5% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 5.39 | 4.72 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 11 | 11 | 55 | 252 | 49 | 21 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 6.18 | 5.81 | -0.8 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 11 | 11 | 55 | 252 | 49 | 21 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 6.18 | 5.99 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 110 | 479 | 105 | 34 | 12 | 70% | 4.1 | 21.5% | 7.1% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.57 | +2.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 110 | 479 | 105 | 34 | 12 | 70% | 4.1 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.54 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 9 | 90 | 372 | 84 | 22 | 12 | 30% | 3.0 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 3.21 | 3.72 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 9 | 90 | 372 | 84 | 22 | 12 | 30% | 3.0 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 3.21 | 3.70 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 30 | 144 | 659 | 111 | 52 | 34 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 5.55 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 30 | 144 | 659 | 111 | 52 | 34 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 5.55 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 74 | 289 | 64 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 15.8% | 1.2% | 2.07 | 2.69 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 74 | 289 | 64 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 1.0% | 2.07 | 2.67 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 17 | 17 | 83 | 373 | 65 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 6.21 | 3.96 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 17 | 17 | 83 | 373 | 65 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.4% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 6.21 | 4.02 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 4 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | WSH | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 58 | 246 | 45 | 15 | 6 | — | — | 18.4% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 22 | 95 | 16 | 6 | 3 | — | — | 16.7% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 44 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 37 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 45 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 37 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 246 | 205 | 1157 | 4988 | 922 | 358 | 168 | 83% | 4.7 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.29 | +15.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 35 | 200 | 862 | 159 | 62 | 29 | 83% | 4.7 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 276 | 233 | 1292 | 5554 | 1008 | 396 | 167 | 84% | 4.7 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +19.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 36 | 200 | 860 | 156 | 61 | 26 | 84% | 4.7 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 3.0% | — | 5.08 | 15.3% | 7.7% | 126 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Shaun Marcum R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 61 |
| Matt Garza R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 60 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 58 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 57 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.93 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.55 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 285 | +0.62 | 3.93 | 413 | 57 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 57 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.23 | 13.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 337 | 57 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.56 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .314 | 5.01 | 9.4% | 0.3% | 174 | +1.45 | 3.56 | 394 | 56 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 56 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 56 |
| Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 56 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.42 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .331 | 5.73 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 99 | +1.31 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 56 |
| Scott Feldman R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.64 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 297 | 56 |
| Matt Cain R 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.83 | 294 | 56 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.80 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 455 | 55 |
| Manuel Flores R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 55 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 55 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.36 | 15.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 433 | 54 |
| Leo Medrano R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 222 | 54 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 1.30 | 4.81 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |