Trevor Williams

P Texas Rangers

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 231 lbs MLB peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX2 levels	15	15	74	2.07	2.67	22.1%	6.6%	2.6	K 22.7% · BB 6.9% · FIP 2.69
2025	33	MLBWSH	17	17	83	6.21	4.02	17.4%	5.6%	1.4
2026	34	MIX6 levels	21	7	44	4.30	4.05	26.8%	7.2%	0.3	K 28.3% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.46
2027PROJ	35	MLBTEX	12	12	75	4.17	4.33	19.7%	7.3%	0.9
2028PROJ	36	MLBTEX	8	8	51	4.62	4.83	18.7%	8.0%	0.4
2029PROJ	37	MLBTEX	5	5	29	5.01	5.25	17.6%	8.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%83

xwOBA vs60

FB Velo10

Form3.29 ERA (proj 4.17) · K 28.4% (proj 19.7%) · BB 8.6% (proj 7.3%) ▲▲ last 90d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsJesse Estrada (age 35) · Kenshin Kawakami (age 35) · Yohan Pino (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.17

FIP4.33

K%19.7%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.8

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p8328.3%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	131	565	101	43	9	96%	5.2	14.6%	8.3%	6.3%	2.0%	3.85	3.99	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	131	565	101	43	9	96%	5.2	17.9%	7.6%	10.3%	1.6%	3.85	3.44	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	21	128	537	89	33	9	75%	4.6	14.6%	6.6%	8.0%	2.0%	2.95	3.78	+2.5
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	21	128	537	89	33	9	75%	4.6	16.6%	6.1%	10.4%	1.7%	2.95	3.40	+3.1
2017	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	25	150	642	117	48	14	81%	4.8	18.2%	7.5%	10.7%	2.4%	4.07	3.80	+2.9
2017	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	25	150	642	117	48	14	81%	4.8	18.2%	7.5%	10.7%	2.2%	4.07	3.71	+3.1
2018	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	171	701	126	52	15	100%	5.5	18.0%	7.4%	10.6%	2.3%	3.11	3.79	+3.3
2018	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	171	701	126	52	15	100%	5.5	18.0%	7.4%	10.6%	2.1%	3.11	3.68	+3.6
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	650	118	42	27	100%	5.5	17.8%	6.4%	11.3%	4.6%	5.39	4.94	+0.8
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	650	118	42	27	100%	5.5	18.2%	6.5%	11.7%	4.2%	5.39	4.72	+1.2
2020	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	11	55	252	49	21	15	100%	5.0	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	6.4%	6.18	6.05	-0.4
2020	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	11	55	252	49	21	15	100%	5.0	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	6.0%	6.18	5.99	-0.4
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	110	479	105	34	12	70%	4.1	21.5%	7.1%	14.4%	2.5%	3.85	3.57	+2.4
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	110	479	105	34	12	70%	4.1	21.9%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%	3.85	3.54	+2.5
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	9	90	372	84	22	12	30%	3.0	22.6%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	3.21	3.72	+0.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	30	9	90	372	84	22	12	30%	3.0	22.6%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	3.21	3.70	+0.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	144	659	111	52	34	100%	4.8	16.8%	7.9%	9.0%	5.2%	5.55	5.51	-0.2
2023	31	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	30	30	144	659	111	52	34	100%	4.8	16.8%	7.9%	9.0%	5.2%	5.55	5.71	-0.5
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	74	289	64	19	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	1.2%	2.07	2.69	+2.5
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	74	289	64	19	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	1.2%	2.07	2.69	+2.5
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	74	289	64	19	3	100%	4.9	22.1%	6.6%	15.6%	1.0%	2.07	2.67	+2.6
2025	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	17	17	83	373	65	21	11	100%	4.9	17.4%	5.6%	11.8%	2.9%	6.21	3.96	+1.4
2025	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	17	17	83	373	65	21	11	100%	4.9	17.4%	5.6%	11.8%	2.9%	6.21	3.96	+1.4
2025	33	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	17	17	83	373	65	21	11	100%	4.9	17.4%	5.6%	11.8%	2.9%	6.21	4.02	+1.4
2026	34	MIX MLE	6 levels	21	7	44	194	52	14	8	33%	2.1	28.3%	8.3%	20.0%	3.1%	4.30	3.46	+0.6
2026	34	MIX MLE	6 levels	21	7	44	194	52	14	8	33%	2.1	28.3%	8.3%	20.0%	3.1%	4.30	3.46	+0.6
2026	34	MIX RAW	6 levels	21	7	44	194	52	14	8	33%	2.1	26.8%	7.2%	19.6%	4.1%	4.30	4.05	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			234	179	1038	4481	859	321	150	76%	4.4	19.2%	7.2%	12.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.25	+14.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	TEX	12	12	75	317	62	23	9	100%	6.2	19.7%	7.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.17	4.33	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	51	214	40	17	7	100%	6.3	18.7%	8.0%	10.7%	3.3%	4.49	4.70	+0.4
2029	37	MLB MLE	TEX	5	5	29	123	22	11	5	100%	5.8	17.6%	8.6%	9.0%	3.7%	4.86	5.10	+0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	51	215	40	17	8	100%	6.4	18.7%	8.0%	10.7%	3.5%	4.62	4.83	+0.4
2029	37	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	29	122	22	11	5	100%	5.8	17.6%	8.6%	9.0%	3.9%	5.01	5.25	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		247	192	1118	4819	921	349	162	78%	4.5	19.1%	7.2%	11.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.25	+15.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	34	200	862	165	62	29	78%	4.5	19.1%	7.2%	11.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		293	236	1329	5713	1053	411	178	81%	4.5	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	3.1%	4.17	4.16	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	860	158	62	27	81%	4.5	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	3.1%	4.17	4.16	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 7 IPFIP 8.51 → 9.41 (+0.91)K% 21.9% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.860	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×0.900	2.81%
HR / BF /BF	12.50%	÷1.000	×1.100	13.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.51 → 9.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 7 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.40 (+0.32)K% 17.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.810	13.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.100	3.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 19 IPFIP 2.64 → 2.92 (+0.27)K% 20.3% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.27%	—	×0.880	17.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.05%	—	×1.050	4.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.039	×1.100	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 110 IPFIP 3.11 → 3.42 (+0.31)K% 16.1% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.12%	—	×0.880	14.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.10%	—	×1.050	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.933	×1.100	1.28%

Result: FIP 3.11 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAJacksonville Suns · 117 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.12 (+0.60)K% 17.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.60%	—	×0.810	14.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.20%	—	×1.100	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷0.973	×1.200	2.22%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 14 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.05 (+0.27)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.77%	—	×1.050	11.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.975	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.85	18.3%	10.1%	80	+0.52	—	—	—
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	58
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	58
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	54
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	53
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	52
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	52
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	51
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	49
Steve Sparks R 2000 · 3.78 FIP	35	SP-	3.78	11.9%	6.5%	1.6%	.283	4.37	11.6%	4.7%	528	+0.59	3.78	1,320	48
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	47
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	395	47
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	47
Angel Sánchez R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	11.8%	5.0%	1.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	284	46
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	46
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	44
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	44
Merrill Kelly R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP	4.26	21.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.271	4.39	19.4%	11.5%	346	+0.13	3.60	1,170	42
Chris Smith R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	35	SP-	3.85	20.8%	8.9%	2.5%	.279	5.08	15.6%	8.1%	130	+1.23	3.79	477	42
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	42
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	40

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	92	19.1%	7.5%	1.29	4.42
Dan Schatzeder ('77-'91, 8 WAR*)	6.6	94	18.8%*	8.5%*	1.28*	4.25*
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	4.7	72	16.9%	7.1%	1.45	4.54
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38