Trevor Williams — OGILVIE

Trevor Williams P Texas Rangers

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 231 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.97

FIP3.98

K%20.0%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.9

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p7727.1%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

SI (8%)

SL-0.8 (36%)

CH-3.0 (13%)

FB-9.4 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	131	565	101	43	9	96%	5.2	14.6%	8.3%	6.3%	2.0%	3.85	3.99	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	131	565	101	43	9	96%	5.2	17.9%	7.6%	10.3%	1.6%	3.85	3.44	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	21	128	537	89	33	9	75%	4.6	14.6%	6.6%	8.0%	2.0%	2.95	3.78	+1.7
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	21	128	537	89	33	9	75%	4.6	16.6%	6.1%	10.4%	1.7%	2.95	3.40	+2.3
2017	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	25	150	642	117	48	14	81%	4.8	18.2%	7.5%	10.7%	2.4%	4.07	3.80	+2.0
2017	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	25	150	642	117	48	14	81%	4.8	18.2%	7.5%	10.7%	2.2%	4.07	3.71	+2.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	171	701	126	52	15	100%	5.5	18.0%	7.4%	10.6%	2.3%	3.11	3.79	+2.3
2018	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	31	171	701	126	52	15	100%	5.5	18.0%	7.4%	10.6%	2.1%	3.11	3.68	+2.5
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	650	118	42	27	100%	5.5	17.8%	6.4%	11.3%	4.6%	5.39	4.94	-0.1
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	650	118	42	27	100%	5.5	18.2%	6.5%	11.7%	4.2%	5.39	4.72	+0.3
2020	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	11	55	252	49	21	15	100%	5.0	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	6.4%	6.18	6.05	-0.7
2020	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	11	11	55	252	49	21	15	100%	5.0	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	6.0%	6.18	5.99	-0.7
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	110	479	105	34	12	70%	4.1	21.5%	7.1%	14.4%	2.5%	3.85	3.57	+1.8
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	110	479	105	34	12	70%	4.1	21.9%	7.1%	14.8%	2.5%	3.85	3.54	+1.8
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	9	90	372	84	22	12	30%	3.0	22.6%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	3.21	3.72	+0.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	30	9	90	372	84	22	12	30%	3.0	22.6%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	3.21	3.70	+0.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	144	659	111	52	34	100%	4.8	16.8%	7.9%	9.0%	5.2%	5.55	5.51	-1.0
2023	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	30	144	659	111	52	34	100%	4.8	16.8%	7.9%	9.0%	5.2%	5.55	5.51	-1.0
2023	31	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	30	30	144	659	111	52	34	100%	4.8	16.8%	7.9%	9.0%	5.2%	5.55	5.71	-1.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	74	289	64	19	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	1.2%	2.07	2.69	+2.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	74	289	64	19	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	1.2%	2.07	2.69	+2.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	74	289	64	19	3	100%	4.9	22.1%	6.6%	15.6%	1.0%	2.07	2.67	+2.1
2025	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	17	17	83	373	65	21	11	100%	4.9	17.4%	5.6%	11.8%	2.9%	6.21	3.96	+0.9
2025	33	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	17	17	83	373	65	21	11	100%	4.9	17.4%	5.6%	11.8%	2.9%	6.21	3.96	+0.9
2025	33	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	17	17	83	373	65	21	11	100%	4.9	17.4%	5.6%	11.8%	2.9%	6.21	4.02	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			231	179	1031	4457	851	320	149	77%	4.5	19.1%	7.2%	11.9%	3.3%	4.43	4.26	+7.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	18	7	38	170	44	13	7	39%	2.1	27.1%	9.4%	17.7%	2.9%	4.54	3.60	+0.4
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	18	7	38	170	44	13	7	39%	2.1	27.1%	9.4%	17.7%	2.9%	4.54	3.60	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	ROK RAW	TEX	1	1	2	10	5	1	0	100%	2.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2026	34	A RAW	TEX	1	1	1	7	1	0	0	100%	0.7	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	27.00	1.89	—
2026	34	A+ RAW	TEX	1	1	3	17	3	2	0	100%	3.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	8.10	3.10	—
2026	34	AA RAW	TEX	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.3	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	34	AAA RAW	TEX	2	2	7	32	7	1	4	100%	3.5	21.9%	3.1%	18.8%	12.5%	7.71	8.51	—
2026	34	MLB RAW	TEX	12	1	22	96	26	9	3	8%	1.9	27.1%	9.4%	17.7%	3.1%	3.22	3.72	+0.2
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	TEX	12	1	22	96	26	9	3	8%	1.9	27.1%	9.4%	17.7%	3.1%	3.22	3.72	+0.2
ROS	34	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	26	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.0%	3.97	3.98	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	3.2%	4.09	4.10	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	44	196	49	15	8	—	—	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	4.0%	4.46	3.65	+0.5
FULL	34	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	29	121	49	15	8	—	—	40.8%	12.4%	28.5%	6.5%	6.88	4.79	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	67	282	52	22	9	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.9%	10.4%	3.4%	4.64	4.78	+0.1
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	59	250	43	21	9	100%	5.9	17.2%	8.5%	8.8%	3.7%	4.94	5.14	-0.2
2027	35	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	67	283	52	22	10	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.9%	10.4%	3.6%	4.78	4.92	+0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	43	21	10	100%	5.9	17.2%	8.5%	8.8%	4.0%	5.09	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	200	1164	5015	951	365	170	78%	4.5	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.4%	4.48	4.28	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	34	200	862	163	63	29	78%	4.5	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.4%	4.48	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		290	236	1322	5689	1044	410	176	81%	4.6	18.3%	7.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.17	4.17	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	860	158	62	27	81%	4.6	18.3%	7.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.17	4.17	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	16.7%	6.8%	3.0%	—	4.95	17.8%	9.6%	126	+0.38	—	—	—
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	71
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	68
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	64
Aníbal Sánchez R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	34	SP	3.49	24.4%	7.6%	2.7%	.252	4.27	18.5%	11.9%	219	+0.78	3.49	869	64
Clay Buchholz R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	34	SP	5.36	15.4%	5.9%	5.1%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	433	61
Shaun Marcum R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	17.8%	6.0%	3.1%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	123	60
Doug Fister R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	13.8%	6.6%	3.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	455	60
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	59
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	59
Johnny Cueto R 2020 · 4.51 FIP	34	SP	4.51	20.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.280	4.71	17.3%	11.8%	364	+0.20	2.85	1,148	59
Jake Arrieta R 2020 · 4.36 FIP	34	SP	4.36	16.8%	8.4%	2.9%	.331	5.45	17.7%	9.0%	99	+1.09	2.13	1,046	59
Kyle Kendrick R 2017 · 5.50 FIP	32	SP	5.50	13.8%	3.9%	5.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	337	57
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.77	264	55
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	413	55
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	55
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	55
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	54
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	54
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.83	16.3%	10.6%	260	+0.51	3.42	933	54
Jake Peavy R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.35	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.28	4.07	262	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	17.4%	7.6%	1.29	4.70
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45