Jake Dykhoff

P FCL Orioles

Age 28 RHP ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	27	MIX4 levels	16	6	75	2.51	3.33	21.8%	6.1%	—	K 15.9% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	45	0	47	4.59	4.59	18.8%	7.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBBAL	13	0	14	4.64	4.69	19.0%	7.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	30	MLBBAL	20	0	21	4.75	4.84	19.0%	8.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJorge Martinez (age 31) · Eddie Bonine (age 28) · Jorge Reyes (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%18.8%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	6	75	293	64	18	7	38%	4.7	15.9%	7.3%	8.6%	3.4%	2.51	4.54	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	6	75	293	64	18	7	38%	4.7	15.9%	7.3%	8.6%	3.4%	2.51	4.54	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	6	75	293	64	18	7	38%	4.7	21.8%	6.1%	15.7%	2.4%	2.51	3.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	45	0	47	198	37	15	6	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.5%	11.2%	3.2%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	43	0	45	191	36	15	6	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.69	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	41	0	43	180	34	15	6	0%	1.0	19.0%	8.3%	10.6%	3.5%	4.75	4.84	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	13	0	14	59	11	5	2	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.69	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	20	0	21	89	17	7	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.3%	10.6%	3.5%	4.75	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	148	28	12	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.40	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	69	29	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		16	6	75	293	46	21	10	38%	4.7	15.9%	7.3%	8.6%	3.4%	2.51	4.54	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	16	200	778	123	56	26	38%	4.7	15.9%	7.3%	8.6%	3.4%	2.51	4.54	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Dykhoff (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	18.8%	7.5%	3.2%	—	4.76	19.0%	10.9%	88	+0.17	—	—	—
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	74
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	71
Jorge Reyes R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	28	SP-	3.39	14.9%	6.9%	1.2%	.357	4.81	11.8%	3.0%	75	+1.42	3.39	227	71
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	71
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	69
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	69
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	68
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	68
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	68
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	67
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	67
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	67
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	67
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	67
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	66
Chris Mazza R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	28	SW	4.94	16.2%	6.9%	4.2%	.239	3.39	19.7%	12.3%	210	-1.55	3.29	563	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	66
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	66
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	18.9%	7.9%	1.28	4.66
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*