Dariel Fregio

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	25	MIX3 levels	27	0	40	1.82	2.75	28.9%	7.4%	—	K 20.5% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.19
2026	26	MIX3 levels	38	4	68	4.76	3.95	25.3%	8.8%	—	K 20.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	32	0	34	4.88	4.88	20.8%	10.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBDET	11	0	12	4.87	4.91	20.9%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Brian Sanches (age 27) · Cole McDonald (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%20.8%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	40	149	43	11	3	0%	1.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.7%	1.82	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	40	149	43	11	3	0%	1.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.7%	1.82	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	40	149	43	11	3	0%	1.5	28.9%	7.4%	21.5%	2.0%	1.82	2.75	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	4	68	297	75	26	10	11%	1.8	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	4.7%	4.76	5.27	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	4	68	297	75	26	10	11%	1.8	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	4.7%	4.76	5.27	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	4	68	297	75	26	10	11%	1.8	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	3.4%	4.76	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	32	0	34	144	30	15	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.88	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	31	0	33	138	29	14	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.5%	4.87	4.91	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	11	0	12	51	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.5%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	11	5	2	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.5%	4.87	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	81	33	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.5%	4.87	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		65	4	108	446	91	46	18	6%	1.7	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	4.0%	3.68	4.91	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	7	200	828	168	86	33	6%	1.7	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	4.0%	3.68	4.91	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dariel Fregio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.8%	10.2%	3.4%	—	4.91	20.9%	10.7%	33	+0.03	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	84
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	84
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	83
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	83
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	83
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	83
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	82
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	82
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	20.8%	10.2%	1.32	4.88
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*