Brent Francisco

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 26 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX2 levels	19	0	30	1.50	0.63	36.1%	3.4%	—	K 25.5% · BB 4.1% · FIP 1.46
2026	25	MIX2 levels	37	1	64	5.88	4.05	21.1%	6.0%	—	K 15.8% · BB 7.0% · FIP 5.09
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	35	0	37	4.59	4.59	18.4%	6.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBMIN	20	0	21	4.58	4.60	18.8%	7.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBMIN	31	0	33	4.62	4.66	19.1%	7.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRyan Halstead (age 26) · Jon Leicester (age 25) · Geoff Geary (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%18.4%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	30	119	43	4	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	4.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.50	1.46	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	30	119	43	4	0	0%	1.6	25.5%	4.1%	21.4%	0.0%	1.50	1.46	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	30	119	43	4	0	0%	1.6	36.1%	3.4%	32.8%	0.0%	1.50	0.63	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	64	284	60	17	10	3%	1.7	15.8%	7.0%	8.9%	4.5%	5.88	5.09	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	64	284	60	17	10	3%	1.7	15.8%	7.0%	8.9%	4.5%	5.88	5.09	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	64	284	60	17	10	3%	1.7	21.1%	6.0%	15.1%	3.5%	5.88	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	35	0	37	156	29	11	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	6.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	54	0	57	241	45	17	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	53	0	55	233	45	17	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.62	4.66	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	20	0	21	89	17	6	3	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	31	0	33	139	27	10	5	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.62	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	0	53	225	43	16	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.3%	4.60	4.26	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	60	30	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.3%	4.60	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		56	1	94	403	75	25	13	2%	1.7	18.7%	6.1%	12.6%	3.1%	4.48	4.02	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	2	200	854	160	52	27	2%	1.7	18.7%	6.1%	12.6%	3.1%	4.48	4.02	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brent Francisco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	18.4%	6.8%	3.3%	—	4.63	18.9%	11.7%	112	+0.04	—	—	—
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	88
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	88
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	87
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	87
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	576	86
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	86
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	86
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	86
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	86
Mike Adams R 2004 · 3.53 FIP	26	SU	3.53	17.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.266	4.83	23.0%	8.2%	13	+1.30	1.36	405	86
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	85
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	85
Rob Scahill R 2013 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	13.4%	5.4%	3.0%	.302	3.73	16.6%	8.3%	108	-0.55	3.06	250	85
Hector Ambriz R 2010 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	16.5%	7.1%	4.5%	.360	4.28	19.5%	10.8%	56	-0.79	2.24	259	85
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	85
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	85
Micah Dallas R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	18.7%	7.1%	3.0%	.273	4.34	17.8%	8.2%	104	+0.30	3.60	202	85
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	18.8%	7.2%	1.28	4.60
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*