Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 69 | 293 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 73% | 4.6 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 2.49 | 3.36 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 11 | 69 | 293 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 73% | 4.6 | 22.9% | 6.5% | 16.4% | 1.0% | 2.49 | 2.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 25 | 0 | 46 | 183 | 36 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.52 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 37 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.82 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 108 | 443 | 73 | 36 | 13 | — | — | 16.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 41 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 0 | 228 | 965 | 171 | 79 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.18 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 69 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 11 | 115 | 476 | 78 | 38 | 12 | 28% | 2.9 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 2.90 | 4.06 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 19 | 200 | 830 | 136 | 67 | 20 | 28% | 2.9 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 2.90 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Peschl (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 14.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.56 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 191 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Scott Burke R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 91 |
| Kyle Smith R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.75 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .326 | 3.33 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 76 | -1.42 | 3.33 | 159 | 89 |
| Devin Burke R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 88 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.94 | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.18 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 226 | +0.24 | 3.71 | 320 | 88 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.80 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.08 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 190 | -0.72 | 4.03 | 266 | 87 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 87 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | .347 | 4.16 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 86 | -0.60 | 3.87 | 148 | 86 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 85 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 85 |
| Blake Bass R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.07 | 11.4% | 6.4% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 6.6% | 108 | -0.66 | 3.18 | 223 | 85 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.23 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.33 | 3.60 | 301 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 85 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 85 |
| David Rodriguez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .223 | 3.66 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 34 | -0.17 | 3.66 | 161 | 84 |
| Robbie Welhaf R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 14.0% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .309 | 3.26 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 90 | -0.80 | 3.26 | 121 | 84 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 84 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.92 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .309 | 4.78 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.86 | 3.92 | 188 | 84 |
| Jack Jasiak R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.97 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 3.8% | .332 | 3.51 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 112 | -1.46 | 3.25 | 248 | 84 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 84 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .305 | 5.99 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +2.25 | 3.74 | 190 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 1.08 | 4.63 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |