Cohen Achen — OGILVIE

Cohen Achen P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%14.1%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	10	81	340	68	33	4	45%	3.7	15.4%	10.9%	4.5%	1.5%	3.35	3.99	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	10	81	340	68	33	4	45%	3.7	15.4%	10.9%	4.5%	1.5%	3.35	3.99	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	10	81	340	68	33	4	45%	3.7	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	1.2%	3.35	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	34	0	47	223	42	26	4	0%	1.4	14.8%	13.1%	1.7%	2.2%	4.56	4.71	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	34	0	47	223	42	26	4	0%	1.4	14.8%	13.1%	1.7%	2.2%	4.56	4.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	BAL	16	0	21	100	24	12	2	0%	1.3	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	2.0%	5.23	3.69	—
2026	25	AA RAW	BAL	18	0	27	123	18	14	2	0%	1.5	14.6%	11.4%	3.3%	1.6%	4.05	4.20	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	14.1%	12.3%	1.8%	2.7%	5.32	5.32	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	53	248	45	29	5	—	—	18.4%	11.7%	6.6%	1.9%	4.65	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	69	0	73	307	48	37	8	0%	1.1	15.8%	12.0%	3.8%	2.7%	5.18	5.15	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	68	0	72	302	49	36	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	11.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.12	5.13	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	66	0	69	293	49	35	8	0%	1.1	16.6%	11.8%	4.7%	2.9%	5.13	5.17	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	63	0	66	280	46	34	9	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	3.0%	5.21	5.28	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	59	0	62	263	43	32	9	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.3%	3.8%	3.2%	5.36	5.46	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	30	0	32	135	21	16	4	0%	1.1	15.8%	12.0%	3.8%	2.7%	5.18	5.15	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	43	0	45	190	31	22	5	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.12	5.13	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	52	220	36	26	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	11.8%	4.7%	2.9%	5.13	5.17	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	51	0	54	228	38	27	7	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	3.0%	5.21	5.28	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	36	28	7	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.3%	3.8%	3.2%	5.36	5.46	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	0	237	1002	163	120	30	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	3.0%	5.20	4.87	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	137	101	25	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	3.0%	5.20	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		56	10	128	563	85	66	10	18%	2.3	15.2%	11.8%	3.4%	1.8%	3.80	4.27	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	16	200	880	134	104	15	18%	2.3	15.2%	11.8%	3.4%	1.8%	3.80	4.27	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cohen Achen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	14.1%	12.3%	2.7%	—	5.15	16.2%	4.4%	214	-0.17	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	89
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	88
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	87
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	85
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	84
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	84
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	84
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	84
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	84
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	84
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	83
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	83
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	82
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	82
James Pugliese R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	24	SW	4.72	12.5%	11.6%	2.2%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	218	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Starling Peralta R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	9.9%	10.0%	1.7%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	117	81
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	69	15.9%	12.0%	1.12	5.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04