Zachary Redner

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	MIX2 levels	31	1	51	4.94	2.61	20.9%	6.5%	—	K 15.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.00
2026	21	A+LAA	31	9	76	5.07	3.86	18.2%	7.6%	—	K 14.0% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.64
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAA	50	0	52	5.13	5.13	13.2%	9.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAA	33	0	35	4.94	4.86	15.6%	9.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAA	49	0	51	4.78	4.70	17.1%	8.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNate Adcock (age 23) · Kelvis Valerio (age 23) · Scott Burke (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%13.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	51	230	48	15	2	3%	1.6	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	0.6%	4.94	3.00	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	51	230	48	15	2	3%	1.6	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	0.6%	4.94	3.00	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	51	230	48	15	2	3%	1.6	20.9%	6.5%	14.3%	0.9%	4.94	2.61	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	31	9	76	341	62	26	8	29%	2.5	14.0%	8.8%	5.2%	2.9%	5.07	4.64	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	31	9	76	341	62	26	8	29%	2.5	14.0%	8.8%	5.2%	2.9%	5.07	4.64	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	31	9	76	341	62	26	8	29%	2.5	18.2%	7.6%	10.6%	2.3%	5.07	3.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAA	50	0	52	220	29	21	6	0%	1.0	13.2%	9.3%	3.8%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAA	68	0	71	301	47	27	9	0%	1.0	15.6%	9.0%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.86	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAA	70	0	73	309	53	27	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.8%	8.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAA	70	0	74	312	56	27	9	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.62	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAA	70	0	74	312	57	27	9	0%	1.1	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	2.8%	4.62	4.59	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAA	69	0	73	308	56	27	9	0%	1.1	18.2%	8.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAA	67	0	71	299	54	27	9	0%	1.1	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.71	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	68	285	51	26	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	3.1%	4.77	4.84	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAA	60	0	63	268	47	25	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	3.3%	4.92	5.02	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAA	33	0	35	148	23	13	4	0%	1.1	15.6%	9.0%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.86	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAA	49	0	51	215	37	19	6	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.8%	8.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAA	57	0	60	253	45	22	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.62	-0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAA	62	0	65	274	50	24	8	0%	1.0	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	2.8%	4.62	4.59	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAA	63	0	66	279	51	24	8	0%	1.0	18.2%	8.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAA	62	0	65	274	50	24	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.71	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAA	60	0	63	266	47	24	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	3.1%	4.77	4.84	-0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAA	56	0	59	249	44	23	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	3.3%	4.92	5.02	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		442	0	464	1960	346	175	58	0%	1.1	17.7%	8.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.74	4.36	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	75	25	0%	1.1	17.7%	8.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.74	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		62	10	127	571	84	47	11	16%	2.1	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	2.0%	5.02	3.98	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	16	200	897	132	74	18	16%	2.1	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	2.0%	5.02	3.98	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zachary Redner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	13.2%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.73	16.9%	8.0%	218	-0.40	—	—	—
Nate Adcock R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	13.6%	8.7%	2.0%	.289	4.39	14.9%	7.5%	35	+0.22	3.84	137	89
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	88
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	87
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	86
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	86
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	86
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	86
Ignacio Marrujo R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SW	4.32	13.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.220	6.08	8.7%	-1.0%	87	+1.76	4.32	150	86
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	86
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	85
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	85
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	85
Jaime Lugo R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	23	SU	4.24	13.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.305	3.89	12.4%	3.6%	162	-0.35	3.69	287	84
Chad Jenkins R 2012 · 5.06 FIP	24	SW	5.06	11.8%	7.4%	3.7%	.257	3.56	12.8%	7.6%	159	-1.50	3.26	220	84
Mariano Rivera R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	12.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.290	4.12	13.5%	5.8%	66	-0.48	3.64	135	84
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	84
Daniel Concepcion R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	13.0%	10.6%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	110	84
Juan Perez R 2017 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	10.8%	10.8%	1.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	113	84
Luis Payan R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	21	SU	3.99	13.8%	6.7%	2.2%	.360	4.08	16.0%	9.8%	79	+0.09	3.99	134	83
Anthony Bass R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	12.1%	10.1%	1.5%	.252	4.24	16.4%	8.4%	166	+0.07	2.93	647	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	69	17.2%	8.9%	1.13	4.78
Matt Albers ('19)	3.8	63	17.4%	9.5%	1.03	4.35
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Joe Borowski ('08)	2.3	57	18.9%	9.0%	1.05	4.18
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*