Jake Shirk

P Altoona Curve

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	41	0	57	4.08	2.33	21.6%	6.4%	—	K 16.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.00
2026	24	MIX2 levels	40	1	64	6.08	4.34	17.2%	8.6%	—	K 12.9% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	37	0	39	5.03	5.03	14.9%	9.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBPIT	24	0	25	4.90	4.86	16.9%	9.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBPIT	34	0	36	4.85	4.85	17.4%	9.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEl'Hajj Muhammad (age 25) · Pedro Echemendia (age 25) · Carlos Alvarado (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%14.9%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	51	15	1	0%	1.4	16.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.6%	4.08	3.00	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	51	15	1	0%	1.4	16.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.6%	4.08	3.00	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	57	236	51	15	1	0%	1.4	21.6%	6.4%	15.3%	0.4%	4.08	2.33	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	64	290	50	25	8	2%	1.6	12.9%	9.8%	3.1%	3.7%	6.08	5.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	64	290	50	25	8	2%	1.6	12.9%	9.8%	3.1%	3.7%	6.08	5.30	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	64	290	50	25	8	2%	1.6	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	2.8%	6.08	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	37	0	39	165	25	15	5	0%	1.1	14.9%	9.1%	5.9%	3.0%	5.03	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	55	0	57	242	41	22	7	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.0%	7.9%	3.0%	4.90	4.86	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	54	0	56	238	41	22	7	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.85	4.85	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	24	0	25	106	18	10	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.0%	7.9%	3.0%	4.90	4.86	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	34	0	36	152	26	14	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	3.1%	4.85	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	257	44	23	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.87	4.47	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	76	26	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.87	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		81	1	121	526	76	46	12	1%	1.5	14.4%	8.7%	5.6%	2.3%	5.13	4.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	869	125	76	20	1%	1.5	14.4%	8.7%	5.6%	2.3%	5.13	4.26	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Shirk (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	14.9%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.86	17.2%	8.1%	114	-0.17	—	—	—
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	90
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	89
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	89
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	88
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	88
Chad Paronto R 2001 · 5.28 FIP	26	SU	5.28	12.5%	8.6%	3.9%	.292	3.73	14.9%	8.4%	36	-1.55	3.65	160	88
Brady Choban R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	23	SU	4.49	16.1%	8.8%	3.0%	.262	4.02	13.3%	4.1%	80	-0.47	3.59	131	88
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	87
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	87
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	87
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	87
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	87
Brad Schreiber R 2016 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	16.5%	7.9%	2.5%	.304	4.23	17.3%	4.6%	57	+0.17	3.81	171	87
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	86
Brian Glowicki R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.49	2.31	189	86
David Berg R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	123	86
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	86
Bryan Morris R 2013 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	8.5%	3.2%	.243	3.90	17.7%	9.2%	145	-0.88	3.48	231	86
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	86
Jeff Bennett R 2004 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	14.2%	7.6%	3.8%	.281	4.36	24.6%	21.1%	13	-0.58	3.62	228	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	16.6%	9.1%	1.18	4.92
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*