Evan Shaw

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	A+LAD	39	0	53	2.22	2.66	23.1%	11.8%	—	K 17.8% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.31
2026	25	AALAD	42	2	64	6.02	3.30	20.9%	12.5%	—	K 16.9% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.85
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAD	67	0	70	5.23	5.23	16.2%	14.9%	-0.5
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBLAD	25	0	26	5.16	5.18	16.9%	14.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBLAD	38	0	40	5.15	5.20	17.3%	14.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJustin Wright (age 26) · Matt Purke (age 26) · Fabian Williamson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 133

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%16.2%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%1.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	5	0	7	29	3	2	0	0%	1.4	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2024	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	5	0	7	29	3	2	0	0%	1.4	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2024	23	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	5	0	7	29	3	2	0	0%	1.4	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	53	212	49	25	0	0%	1.4	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	0.0%	2.22	3.31	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	53	212	49	25	0	0%	1.4	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	0.0%	2.22	3.31	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	39	0	53	212	49	25	0	0%	1.4	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	0.0%	2.22	2.66	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	42	2	64	297	62	37	2	5%	1.5	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	0.8%	6.02	3.85	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	42	2	64	297	62	37	2	5%	1.5	16.9%	13.7%	3.2%	0.8%	6.02	3.85	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	42	2	64	297	62	37	2	5%	1.5	20.9%	12.5%	8.4%	0.7%	6.02	3.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAD	67	0	70	296	48	44	7	0%	1.0	16.2%	14.9%	1.3%	2.2%	5.23	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAD	66	0	69	291	49	42	7	0%	1.0	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.4%	5.16	5.18	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAD	64	0	67	282	49	40	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	14.1%	3.1%	2.5%	5.15	5.20	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAD	61	0	64	270	47	38	7	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.1%	3.2%	2.7%	5.21	5.28	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAD	25	0	26	110	19	16	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.4%	5.16	5.18	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAD	38	0	40	169	29	24	4	0%	1.1	17.3%	14.1%	3.1%	2.5%	5.15	5.20	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAD	43	0	45	190	33	27	5	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.1%	3.2%	2.7%	5.21	5.28	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	81	67	12	0%	1.0	17.2%	14.2%	3.0%	2.6%	5.18	4.85	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	121	22	0%	1.1	17.2%	14.2%	3.0%	2.6%	5.18	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		86	2	124	538	91	71	2	2%	1.4	16.9%	13.3%	3.6%	0.4%	4.21	3.60	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	3	200	868	147	115	4	2%	1.4	16.9%	13.3%	3.6%	0.4%	4.21	3.60	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Shaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	16.2%	14.9%	2.2%	—	5.22	17.2%	3.0%	200	-0.01	—	—	—
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	88
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	87
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	87
Phil Pfeifer L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.4%	15.7%	1.0%	.279	4.06	21.4%	11.5%	161	-0.09	3.61	307	86
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	85
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	83
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	83
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	83
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	82
Kirby Bellow L 2018 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	13.6%	14.0%	1.3%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	108	82
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	81
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	81
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	81
Joey DeNato L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.3%	15.1%	1.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	167	81
Jose Meraz L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	27	SU	4.71	13.3%	12.0%	2.2%	.331	4.06	15.3%	6.7%	44	-0.65	3.78	110	80
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	80
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	80
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	79
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	79
Randy Labaut L 2023 · 4.72 FIP	26	SU	4.72	17.0%	13.9%	2.4%	.244	4.93	18.4%	6.1%	98	+0.21	1.91	302	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	16.9%	14.4%	0.95	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*